RedBox Research · November 3, 2026

Election night

Every race we polled and every close race, with the count as each state posts it

Our final poll beside the count in the 35 races we polled
Every race the Cook Political Report rates Likely, Lean or Toss-up
The count from 21 states' official results, read every few minutes; every other race links to its state's results

Florida in more depth: turnout by party and the count by county. TV view

Balance of power

As of 6:09 p.m. ET

Senate

Democrats need 51 seats; Republicans need 50 (Vice President Vance breaks ties)

34Democrats*0 leading · 13 more rated D

7toss-ups

31Republicans0 leading · 15 more rated R

Seats not up this year: 32 Democrats, 31 Republicans and 2 independents who caucus with the Democrats (*), from Senate.gov.

House

218 seats for a majority of 435

0Democrats0 leading · 220 more rated D

17toss-ups

0Republicans0 leading · 198 more rated R

Every seat is on the ballot.

leading in the state's count rated by Cook, not yet counted (lighter is less certain) toss-upDarkest: decided by the state, or not up this year. No race is called here: a seat is decided only when the state's own results mark a winner.

AFWH-endorsed races

Michigan · U.S. Senate

Abdul El-Sayed

Polls close 9 p.m. ET; the count is on the state's site

Official results (opens a new tab)

Nebraska · U.S. Senate

Dan Osborn

Polls close 9 p.m. ET

TN-09 · U.S. House, Tennessee

Justin Pearson

Polls close 8 p.m. ET

NY-14 · U.S. House, New York

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Polls close 9 p.m. ET

TX-30 · U.S. House, Texas

Frederick Haynes

Polls close 9 p.m. ET

CA-07 · U.S. House, California

Mai Vang

Polls close 11 p.m. ET

U.S. Senate

Race	Cook rating	Our final poll	The count	Official results
Georgia	Likely D	Not polled	Ossoff vs. Collins Polls close 7 p.m. ET	Official results for Georgia U.S. Senate (opens a new tab)
South Carolina	Lean R	Not polled	Andrews vs. Graham Polls close 7 p.m. ET	Official results for South Carolina U.S. Senate (opens a new tab)
North Carolina	Likely D	Cooper +6	Cooper vs. Whatley Polls close 7:30 p.m. ET	Official results for North Carolina U.S. Senate (opens a new tab)
OhioSpecial election	Toss-up	Brown +3	Brown vs. Husted Polls close 7:30 p.m. ET	Official results for Ohio U.S. Senate (special) (opens a new tab)
FloridaSpecial election	Solid R	Moody +2	Nixon vs. Moody Polls close 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. ET	Official results for Florida U.S. Senate (special) (opens a new tab)
Maine	Toss-up	Not polled	Polls close 8 p.m. ET	Where results post for Maine U.S. Senate (opens a new tab)
Mississippi	Likely R	Not polled	Polls close 8 p.m. ET	Official results for Mississippi U.S. Senate (opens a new tab)
New Hampshire	Lean D	Not polled	Polls close 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. ET	Official results for New Hampshire U.S. Senate (opens a new tab)
Iowa	Toss-up	Not polled	Turek vs. Hinson Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for Iowa U.S. Senate (opens a new tab)
Kansas	Toss-up	Marshall +1	Hamilton vs. Marshall Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Official results for Kansas U.S. Senate (opens a new tab)
MichiganAFWH endorsed	Toss-up	El-Sayed +5	Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Where results post for Michigan U.S. Senate (opens a new tab)
Minnesota	Lean D	Not polled	Flanagan vs. Tafoya Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for Minnesota U.S. Senate (opens a new tab)
NebraskaAFWH endorsed	Likely R	Not polled	Ricketts Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for Nebraska U.S. Senate (opens a new tab)
Texas	Toss-up	Not polled	Talarico vs. Paxton Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Official results for Texas U.S. Senate (opens a new tab)
Alaska	Toss-up	Not polled	Peltola vs. Sullivan vs. Heikes Polls close 12 a.m. to 1 a.m. ET	Official results for Alaska U.S. Senate (opens a new tab)

Governor

Race	Cook rating	Our final poll	The count	Official results
Georgia	Toss-up	Not polled	Bottoms vs. Jackson Polls close 7 p.m. ET	Official results for Georgia Governor (opens a new tab)
Vermont	Likely R	Not polled	Polls close 7 p.m. ET	Official results for Vermont Governor (opens a new tab)
Ohio	Lean D	Acton +4	Acton vs. Ramaswamy Polls close 7:30 p.m. ET	Official results for Ohio Governor (opens a new tab)
Florida	Lean R	Donalds +1	Jolly vs. Donalds Polls close 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. ET	Official results for Florida Governor (opens a new tab)
New Hampshire	Likely R	Not polled	Polls close 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. ET	Official results for New Hampshire Governor (opens a new tab)
Oklahoma	Likely R	Not polled	Polls close 8 p.m. ET	Official results for Oklahoma Governor (opens a new tab)
Arizona	Lean D	Hobbs +5	Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for Arizona Governor (opens a new tab)
Iowa	Lean D	Not polled	Sand vs. Lahn Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for Iowa Governor (opens a new tab)
Kansas	Toss-up	Masterson +2	Holscher vs. Masterson Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Official results for Kansas Governor (opens a new tab)
Michigan	Lean D	Benson +6	Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Where results post for Michigan Governor (opens a new tab)
Nebraska	Lean R	Not polled	Walz vs. Pillen Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for Nebraska Governor (opens a new tab)
Texas	Lean R	Not polled	Hinojosa vs. Abbott Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Official results for Texas Governor (opens a new tab)
Wisconsin	Toss-up	Not polled	Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Where results post for Wisconsin Governor (opens a new tab)
Nevada	Toss-up	Ford +3	D. vs. Joseph Polls close 10 p.m. ET	Official results for Nevada Governor (opens a new tab)
Oregon	Lean D	Not polled	Polls close 11 p.m. ET	Official results for Oregon Governor (opens a new tab)
Alaska	Lean D	Not polled	Kreiss-Tomkins vs. Bronson vs. Taylor vs. Wilson Polls close 12 a.m. to 1 a.m. ET	Official results for Alaska Governor (opens a new tab)

U.S. House

Race	Cook rating	Our final poll	The count	Official results
IN-01Indiana	Likely D	Not polled	Most polls closed; the last close at 7 p.m. ET	Official results for IN-01 U.S. House, Indiana (opens a new tab)
IN-05Indiana	Likely R	Not polled	Most polls closed; the last close at 7 p.m. ET	Official results for IN-05 U.S. House, Indiana (opens a new tab)
KY-06Kentucky	Toss-up	Not polled	Most polls closed; the last close at 7 p.m. ET	Official results for KY-06 U.S. House, Kentucky (opens a new tab)
SC-01South Carolina	Lean R	Not polled	Lacore vs. Honeycutt Polls close 7 p.m. ET	Official results for SC-01 U.S. House, South Carolina (opens a new tab)
VA-01Virginia	Toss-up	Not polled	Taylor vs. Wittman Polls close 7 p.m. ET	Official results for VA-01 U.S. House, Virginia (opens a new tab)
VA-02Virginia	Lean D	Not polled	Luria vs. Kiggans Polls close 7 p.m. ET	Official results for VA-02 U.S. House, Virginia (opens a new tab)
VA-05Virginia	Likely R	Not polled	Perriello vs. McGuire Polls close 7 p.m. ET	Official results for VA-05 U.S. House, Virginia (opens a new tab)
VA-07Virginia	Likely D	Not polled	Vindman vs. Ollivant Polls close 7 p.m. ET	Official results for VA-07 U.S. House, Virginia (opens a new tab)
NC-01North Carolina	Toss-up	Davis +2	Davis vs. Buckhout Polls close 7:30 p.m. ET	Official results for NC-01 U.S. House, North Carolina (opens a new tab)
NC-03North Carolina	Likely R	Not polled	Smith vs. Murphy Polls close 7:30 p.m. ET	Official results for NC-03 U.S. House, North Carolina (opens a new tab)
NC-11North Carolina	Lean D	Ager +6	Ager vs. Balkcom Polls close 7:30 p.m. ET	Official results for NC-11 U.S. House, North Carolina (opens a new tab)
NC-13North Carolina	Likely R	Not polled	Barringer vs. Knott Polls close 7:30 p.m. ET	Official results for NC-13 U.S. House, North Carolina (opens a new tab)
OH-01Ohio	Likely D	Landsman +9	Landsman vs. Conroy Polls close 7:30 p.m. ET	Official results for OH-01 U.S. House, Ohio (opens a new tab)
OH-07Ohio	Toss-up	Poindexter +4	Poindexter vs. Miller Polls close 7:30 p.m. ET	Official results for OH-07 U.S. House, Ohio (opens a new tab)
OH-09Ohio	Toss-up	Kaptur +6	Kaptur vs. Merrin Polls close 7:30 p.m. ET	Official results for OH-09 U.S. House, Ohio (opens a new tab)
OH-10Ohio	Lean R	Not polled	Knickerbocker vs. Turner Polls close 7:30 p.m. ET	Official results for OH-10 U.S. House, Ohio (opens a new tab)
OH-13Ohio	Likely D	Not polled	Sykes vs. Coleman Polls close 7:30 p.m. ET	Official results for OH-13 U.S. House, Ohio (opens a new tab)
OH-15Ohio	Lean R	Not polled	Leonard vs. Carey Polls close 7:30 p.m. ET	Official results for OH-15 U.S. House, Ohio (opens a new tab)
AL-02Alabama	Lean R	Not polled	Polls close 8 p.m. ET	Official results for AL-02 U.S. House, Alabama (opens a new tab)
FL-07Florida	Likely R	Not polled	Dalton vs. Elijah Polls close 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. ET	Official results for FL-07 U.S. House, Florida (opens a new tab)
FL-09Florida	Likely R	Not polled	Soto vs. Green Polls close 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. ET	Official results for FL-09 U.S. House, Florida (opens a new tab)
FL-13Florida	Lean R	Luna +3	Gray vs. Luna Polls close 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. ET	Official results for FL-13 U.S. House, Florida (opens a new tab)
FL-14Florida	Toss-up	Castor +1	Castor vs. Beltran Polls close 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. ET	Official results for FL-14 U.S. House, Florida (opens a new tab)
FL-16Florida	Likely R	Not polled	Kirschner vs. Gruters Polls close 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. ET	Official results for FL-16 U.S. House, Florida (opens a new tab)
FL-22Florida	Toss-up	Dandiya +1	Dandiya vs. Askar Polls close 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. ET	Official results for FL-22 U.S. House, Florida (opens a new tab)
FL-25Florida	Lean D	Moskowitz +6	Moskowitz vs. Singer Polls close 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. ET	Official results for FL-25 U.S. House, Florida (opens a new tab)
FL-27Florida	Lean R	Salazar +3	Rodriguez vs. Salazar Polls close 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. ET	Official results for FL-27 U.S. House, Florida (opens a new tab)
ME-02Maine	Lean R	Not polled	Polls close 8 p.m. ET	Where results post for ME-02 U.S. House, Maine (opens a new tab)
MO-02Missouri	Likely R	Not polled	Polls close 8 p.m. ET	Official results for MO-02 U.S. House, Missouri (opens a new tab)
NH-01New Hampshire	Likely D	Not polled	Polls close 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. ET	Official results for NH-01 U.S. House, New Hampshire (opens a new tab)
NJ-07New Jersey	Lean D	Not polled	Polls close 8 p.m. ET	Where results post for NJ-07 U.S. House, New Jersey (opens a new tab)
NJ-09New Jersey	Likely D	Not polled	Polls close 8 p.m. ET	Where results post for NJ-09 U.S. House, New Jersey (opens a new tab)
PA-01Pennsylvania	Lean R	Tied	Harvie vs. Fitzpatrick Polls close 8 p.m. ET	Official results for PA-01 U.S. House, Pennsylvania (opens a new tab)
PA-07Pennsylvania	Lean D	Brooks +5	Brooks vs. Mackenzie Polls close 8 p.m. ET	Official results for PA-07 U.S. House, Pennsylvania (opens a new tab)
PA-08Pennsylvania	Toss-up	Cognetti +3	Cognetti vs. Bresnahan Polls close 8 p.m. ET	Official results for PA-08 U.S. House, Pennsylvania (opens a new tab)
PA-10Pennsylvania	Lean D	Stelson +2	Stelson vs. Perry Polls close 8 p.m. ET	Official results for PA-10 U.S. House, Pennsylvania (opens a new tab)
TN-09TennesseeAFWH endorsed	Solid R	Not polled	Pearson vs. Taylor Polls close 8 p.m. ET	Official results for TN-09 U.S. House, Tennessee (opens a new tab)
AR-02Arkansas	Likely R	Not polled	Polls close 8:30 p.m. ET	Official results for AR-02 U.S. House, Arkansas (opens a new tab)
AZ-01Arizona	Lean D	Shah +6	Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for AZ-01 U.S. House, Arizona (opens a new tab)
AZ-02Arizona	Lean R	Not polled	Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for AZ-02 U.S. House, Arizona (opens a new tab)
AZ-06Arizona	Lean D	Mendoza +5	Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for AZ-06 U.S. House, Arizona (opens a new tab)
CO-03Colorado	Likely R	Not polled	Romero vs. Hurd Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for CO-03 U.S. House, Colorado (opens a new tab)
CO-04Colorado	Lean R	Not polled	Laubacher vs. Boebert Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for CO-04 U.S. House, Colorado (opens a new tab)
CO-05Colorado	Lean R	Not polled	Killin vs. Crank Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for CO-05 U.S. House, Colorado (opens a new tab)
CO-08Colorado	Lean D	Not polled	Rutinel vs. Evans Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for CO-08 U.S. House, Colorado (opens a new tab)
IA-01Iowa	Lean D	Not polled	Bohannan vs. Miller-Meeks Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for IA-01 U.S. House, Iowa (opens a new tab)
IA-02Iowa	Toss-up	Not polled	James vs. Mitchell Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for IA-02 U.S. House, Iowa (opens a new tab)
IA-03Iowa	Lean D	Not polled	Garriott vs. Nunn Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for IA-03 U.S. House, Iowa (opens a new tab)
KS-02Kansas	Likely R	Not polled	Coover vs. Schmidt Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Official results for KS-02 U.S. House, Kansas (opens a new tab)
MI-04Michigan	Toss-up	Huizenga +3	Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Where results post for MI-04 U.S. House, Michigan (opens a new tab)
MI-07Michigan	Toss-up	Not polled	Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Where results post for MI-07 U.S. House, Michigan (opens a new tab)
MI-08Michigan	Likely D	Not polled	Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Where results post for MI-08 U.S. House, Michigan (opens a new tab)
MI-10Michigan	Toss-up	Bouchard +5	Hines vs. Bouchard Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Where results post for MI-10 U.S. House, Michigan (opens a new tab)
MN-01Minnesota	Lean R	Not polled	Johnson vs. Finstad Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for MN-01 U.S. House, Minnesota (opens a new tab)
MN-02Minnesota	Likely D	Not polled	Little vs. Pratt Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for MN-02 U.S. House, Minnesota (opens a new tab)
NE-01Nebraska	Likely R	Not polled	Backemeyer vs. Flood Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for NE-01 U.S. House, Nebraska (opens a new tab)
NE-02Nebraska	Likely D	Not polled	Powell vs. Harding Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for NE-02 U.S. House, Nebraska (opens a new tab)
NM-02New Mexico	Lean D	Not polled	Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for NM-02 U.S. House, New Mexico (opens a new tab)
NY-03New York	Likely D	Not polled	Suozzi vs. LiPetri Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for NY-03 U.S. House, New York (opens a new tab)
NY-04New York	Likely D	Not polled	Gillen vs. Driscoll Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for NY-04 U.S. House, New York (opens a new tab)
NY-14New YorkAFWH endorsed	Solid D	Not polled	Ocasio-Cortez vs. Hysenaj Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for NY-14 U.S. House, New York (opens a new tab)
NY-17New York	Toss-up	Conley +3	Conley vs. Lawler Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for NY-17 U.S. House, New York (opens a new tab)
NY-19New York	Likely D	Not polled	Riley vs. Oberacker Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for NY-19 U.S. House, New York (opens a new tab)
NY-21New York	Lean R	Not polled	Gendebien vs. Constantino Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Official results for NY-21 U.S. House, New York (opens a new tab)
TX-09Texas	Likely R	Not polled	Gutierrez vs. Mealer Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Official results for TX-09 U.S. House, Texas (opens a new tab)
TX-15Texas	Toss-up	Not polled	Pulido vs. Cruz Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Official results for TX-15 U.S. House, Texas (opens a new tab)
TX-23Texas	Lean R	Not polled	Stout vs. Herrera Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Official results for TX-23 U.S. House, Texas (opens a new tab)
TX-30TexasAFWH endorsed	Solid D	Not polled	Haynes vs. Jackson Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Official results for TX-30 U.S. House, Texas (opens a new tab)
TX-34Texas	Lean D	Not polled	Gonzalez vs. Flores Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Official results for TX-34 U.S. House, Texas (opens a new tab)
TX-35Texas	Toss-up	Not polled	Garcia vs. Cruz Polls close 8 p.m. to 9 p.m. ET	Official results for TX-35 U.S. House, Texas (opens a new tab)
WI-01Wisconsin	Lean R	Not polled	Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Where results post for WI-01 U.S. House, Wisconsin (opens a new tab)
WI-03Wisconsin	Lean D	Not polled	Polls close 9 p.m. ET	Where results post for WI-03 U.S. House, Wisconsin (opens a new tab)
MT-01Montana	Toss-up	Flint +2	Forstag vs. Flint Polls close 10 p.m. ET	Official results for MT-01 U.S. House, Montana (opens a new tab)
NV-01Nevada	Likely D	Not polled	Dina vs. Ann Polls close 10 p.m. ET	Official results for NV-01 U.S. House, Nevada (opens a new tab)
NV-02Nevada	Lean R	Not polled	F. vs. David Polls close 10 p.m. ET	Official results for NV-02 U.S. House, Nevada (opens a new tab)
NV-03Nevada	Likely D	Lee +8	Susie vs. Marty Polls close 10 p.m. ET	Official results for NV-03 U.S. House, Nevada (opens a new tab)
NV-04Nevada	Likely D	Not polled	A. vs. K. Polls close 10 p.m. ET	Official results for NV-04 U.S. House, Nevada (opens a new tab)
CA-07CaliforniaAFWH endorsed	Solid D	Vang +1	Matsui vs. Vang Polls close 11 p.m. ET	Official results for CA-07 U.S. House, California (opens a new tab)
CA-11California	Solid D	Wiener +8	Chan vs. Wiener Polls close 11 p.m. ET	Official results for CA-11 U.S. House, California (opens a new tab)
CA-13California	Likely D	Not polled	Gray vs. Lincoln Polls close 11 p.m. ET	Official results for CA-13 U.S. House, California (opens a new tab)
CA-22California	Toss-up	Not polled	Villegas vs. Valadao Polls close 11 p.m. ET	Official results for CA-22 U.S. House, California (opens a new tab)
CA-45California	Likely D	Not polled	Tran vs. Vo Polls close 11 p.m. ET	Official results for CA-45 U.S. House, California (opens a new tab)
CA-48California	Lean D	Wilpert +5	Wilpert vs. Desmond Polls close 11 p.m. ET	Official results for CA-48 U.S. House, California (opens a new tab)
WA-03Washington	Lean D	Not polled	Polls close 11 p.m. ET	Official results for WA-03 U.S. House, Washington (opens a new tab)
AK-ALAlaska	Lean R	Not polled	Hafner vs. Begich Polls close 12 a.m. to 1 a.m. ET	Official results for AK-AL U.S. House, Alaska (opens a new tab)

The count is unofficial. It is each state's own election-night results, statewide or by district, read every 5 minutes on election night (Florida's and North Carolina's every 4). A count shows once the state posts votes after its first polls close. Shares are of all votes counted, third-party candidates included; the margin is the leader's over the runner-up. Where we do not read a state's results, its link opens the state's own results page; Michigan, Wisconsin and New Jersey post no statewide results on election night, and Maine's towns report their own, so those links open the state's list of local results.

Balance of power places each seat by the best fact we hold: a winner the state's own results mark, else the leader in the state's count (in the races we read), else the Cook Political Report's rating. A leader is not a winner, and no race is called here. The Senate's seats not up this year are Senate.gov's list of sitting senators.

AFWH-endorsed races are the candidates A Fight Worth Having endorses on this site.

Ratings are the Cook Political Report's, as 270toWin tabulates them; each rating's date shows when you point at it. Our final poll is the leader's lead in our last poll of the race, as its poll page shows it; a Senate or Governor race counts as polled only where we polled the whole state.