RedBox Research · Election night, November 3, 2026
VA-05
U.S. House, Virginia: the count beside our final poll and our turnout model
- Cook rating
- Likely R
as of 2026-10-23
- Our final poll
- Not polled
- The count
- Perriello 52.2% · McGuire 47.0%
Perriello +5.3 · 1 of 24 counties reporting · as of 7:10 p.m. ET
- Against our final poll
- Not polled
- Turnout against our model
- 1% of the 328K votes our turnout model expects
55.6% of 589,059 registered voters
County counts for this district appear here once the state reports them by county.
Against our final poll is the count's Democratic margin less our final poll's (each the Democrat's share less the Republican's; the poll's shares include undecided respondents). Early counts lean toward whichever ballots a state counts first, mail or Election Day, so read it beside how much of the expected vote is in.
Turnout against our model holds the votes counted against our voter-file turnout model (as of 2026-10-10): below 100% while the count runs; once every precinct reports, above 100% is more voters than we expected.
By county we have no vote-share model outside Florida and North Carolina, so counties show the count as the state reports it.
The count is unofficial: each state's own election-night results, read every few minutes; it shows once the state posts votes after its first polls close.