RedBox Research · Election night, November 3, 2026
North Carolina U.S. Senate
Statewide: the count beside our final poll and our turnout model
- Cook rating
- Likely D
as of 2026-10-23
- Our final poll
- Cooper +6
D+6.3 among all respondents
- Our call before results
- D+6.7 (two-party)
84% chance the Democrat finishes ahead
- The count
- Polls open
Polls close 7:30 p.m. ET · the state's results
- Against our final poll
- Once votes are counted
- Turnout against our model
- Our model expects 3,550,855 votes
52% of 6,828,779 registered voters
| County | Votes counted | Reporting | Margin | Our expected D share (two-party) | Count vs. our model | Votes vs. expected turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wake County | – | – | – | 59.1% | – | 0% |
| Mecklenburg County | – | – | – | 63.7% | – | 0% |
| Guilford County | – | – | – | 60.4% | – | 0% |
| Forsyth County | – | – | – | 57.3% | – | 0% |
| Durham County | – | – | – | 74.8% | – | 0% |
| Buncombe County | – | – | – | 61.4% | – | 0% |
| New Hanover County | – | – | – | 51.4% | – | 0% |
| Union County | – | – | – | 44.2% | – | 0% |
| Brunswick County | – | – | – | 43.8% | – | 0% |
| Johnston County | – | – | – | 47.8% | – | 0% |
| Cumberland County | – | – | – | 61.0% | – | 0% |
| Cabarrus County | – | – | – | 48.9% | – | 0% |
| Iredell County | – | – | – | 40.5% | – | 0% |
| Gaston County | – | – | – | 45.5% | – | 0% |
| Orange County | – | – | – | 71.4% | – | 0% |
| Davidson County | – | – | – | 35.7% | – | 0% |
| Alamance County | – | – | – | 51.5% | – | 0% |
| Catawba County | – | – | – | 38.5% | – | 0% |
| Pitt County | – | – | – | 58.6% | – | 0% |
| Henderson County | – | – | – | 45.5% | – | 0% |
| Randolph County | – | – | – | 32.0% | – | 0% |
| Rowan County | – | – | – | 39.6% | – | 0% |
| Onslow County | – | – | – | 40.8% | – | 0% |
| Moore County | – | – | – | 40.1% | – | 0% |
| Harnett County | – | – | – | 47.5% | – | 0% |
| Chatham County | – | – | – | 61.7% | – | 0% |
| Lincoln County | – | – | – | 36.6% | – | 0% |
| Craven County | – | – | – | 45.3% | – | 0% |
| Nash County | – | – | – | 55.4% | – | 0% |
| Wayne County | – | – | – | 51.1% | – | 0% |
| Cleveland County | – | – | – | 46.1% | – | 0% |
| Rockingham County | – | – | – | 44.0% | – | 0% |
| Carteret County | – | – | – | 35.4% | – | 0% |
| Burke County | – | – | – | 42.1% | – | 0% |
| Franklin County | – | – | – | 51.8% | – | 0% |
| Caldwell County | – | – | – | 35.7% | – | 0% |
| Haywood County | – | – | – | 48.1% | – | 0% |
| Pender County | – | – | – | 42.1% | – | 0% |
| Surry County | – | – | – | 35.5% | – | 0% |
| Wilson County | – | – | – | 59.5% | – | 0% |
| Wilkes County | – | – | – | 27.5% | – | 0% |
| Stanly County | – | – | – | 35.9% | – | 0% |
| Robeson County | – | – | – | 60.5% | – | 0% |
| Rutherford County | – | – | – | 37.5% | – | 0% |
| Granville County | – | – | – | 57.0% | – | 0% |
| Watauga County | – | – | – | 53.1% | – | 0% |
| Lee County | – | – | – | 52.8% | – | 0% |
| Stokes County | – | – | – | 30.9% | – | 0% |
| Davie County | – | – | – | 32.8% | – | 0% |
| Beaufort County | – | – | – | 44.1% | – | 0% |
| Columbus County | – | – | – | 51.0% | – | 0% |
| Dare County | – | – | – | 44.5% | – | 0% |
| Lenoir County | – | – | – | 57.6% | – | 0% |
| Sampson County | – | – | – | 44.4% | – | 0% |
| Martin County | – | – | – | 59.9% | – | 0% |
| McDowell County | – | – | – | 37.7% | – | 0% |
| Person County | – | – | – | 53.0% | – | 0% |
| Alexander County | – | – | – | 35.0% | – | 0% |
| Transylvania County | – | – | – | 49.8% | – | 0% |
| Duplin County | – | – | – | 47.0% | – | 0% |
| Edgecombe County | – | – | – | 69.1% | – | 0% |
| Jackson County | – | – | – | 54.2% | – | 0% |
| Yadkin County | – | – | – | 23.9% | – | 0% |
| Halifax County | – | – | – | 70.3% | – | 0% |
| Pasquotank County | – | – | – | 56.2% | – | 0% |
| Hoke County | – | – | – | 63.6% | – | 0% |
| Cherokee County | – | – | – | 29.1% | – | 0% |
| Currituck County | – | – | – | 32.1% | – | 0% |
| Richmond County | – | – | – | 55.2% | – | 0% |
| Vance County | – | – | – | 68.7% | – | 0% |
| Ashe County | – | – | – | 36.7% | – | 0% |
| Bladen County | – | – | – | 57.7% | – | 0% |
| Macon County | – | – | – | 39.5% | – | 0% |
| Polk County | – | – | – | 45.0% | – | 0% |
| Scotland County | – | – | – | 61.3% | – | 0% |
| Montgomery County | – | – | – | 43.9% | – | 0% |
| Madison County | – | – | – | 52.1% | – | 0% |
| Caswell County | – | – | – | 53.8% | – | 0% |
| Yancey County | – | – | – | 47.4% | – | 0% |
| Avery County | – | – | – | 25.8% | – | 0% |
| Warren County | – | – | – | 67.5% | – | 0% |
| Anson County | – | – | – | 61.7% | – | 0% |
| Mitchell County | – | – | – | 28.3% | – | 0% |
| Pamlico County | – | – | – | 43.1% | – | 0% |
| Northampton County | – | – | – | 70.7% | – | 0% |
| Bertie County | – | – | – | 71.8% | – | 0% |
| Hertford County | – | – | – | 72.8% | – | 0% |
| Greene County | – | – | – | 59.3% | – | 0% |
| Clay County | – | – | – | 34.1% | – | 0% |
| Perquimans County | – | – | – | 43.0% | – | 0% |
| Chowan County | – | – | – | 50.8% | – | 0% |
| Alleghany County | – | – | – | 40.0% | – | 0% |
| Swain County | – | – | – | 49.1% | – | 0% |
| Camden County | – | – | – | 40.2% | – | 0% |
| Gates County | – | – | – | 55.5% | – | 0% |
| Washington County | – | – | – | 67.7% | – | 0% |
| Jones County | – | – | – | 48.5% | – | 0% |
| Graham County | – | – | – | 31.8% | – | 0% |
| Hyde County | – | – | – | 53.4% | – | 0% |
| Tyrrell County | – | – | – | 58.7% | – | 0% |
Against our final poll is the count's Democratic margin less our final poll's (each the Democrat's share less the Republican's; the poll's shares include undecided respondents). Early counts lean toward whichever ballots a state counts first, mail or Election Day, so read it beside how much of the expected vote is in.
Turnout against our model holds the votes counted against our voter-file turnout model (as of 2026-10-08): below 100% while the count runs; once every precinct reports, above 100% is more voters than we expected.
Our expected Democratic share by county, and each county's expected vote, come from our North Carolina election-night model. “Count vs. our model” is the county's Democratic two-party share less our expectation.
The count is unofficial: each state's own election-night results, read every few minutes; it shows once the state posts votes after its first polls close.