RedBox Research · Election night, November 3, 2026
MI-10
U.S. House, Michigan: the count beside our final poll and our turnout model
- Cook rating
- Toss-up
as of 2026-10-23
- Our final poll
- Bouchard +5
R+4.8 among all respondents
- The count
- Polls open
Polls close 9 p.m. ET · the state's results
- Against our final poll
- Once votes are counted
- Turnout against our model
- Our model expects 319,769 votes
54.6% of 585,924 registered voters
| County | Votes counted | Reporting | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macomb County | – | – | – |
| Oakland County | – | – | – |
Against our final poll is the count's Democratic margin less our final poll's (each the Democrat's share less the Republican's; the poll's shares include undecided respondents). Early counts lean toward whichever ballots a state counts first, mail or Election Day, so read it beside how much of the expected vote is in.
Turnout against our model holds the votes counted against our voter-file turnout model (as of 2026-10-07): below 100% while the count runs; once every precinct reports, above 100% is more voters than we expected.
By county we have no vote-share model outside Florida and North Carolina, so counties show the count as the state reports it.
The count is unofficial: each state's own election-night results, read every few minutes; it shows once the state posts votes after its first polls close.