Polling / Our track record

How accurate are our polls?

Every poll we publish before Election Day is checked against the real, certified result and set beside the other public polls of the same race. Good or bad, it shows up here.

Missed by is how far a poll's lead between the top two finishers was from their real lead in the certified result, in points. Undecided voters are left as each poll reported them. Only polls we published before polls opened on Election Day count, by each state's official poll-opening time, checked against certified results. A post-election reanalysis never counts.

Who missed by the least

Average miss, in points

The ranking starts once 2 races have certified results to compare. 1 race is scored so far.

Race by race

Leads and misses in points

Race	Real result	Our poll	Missed by	Other polls (average)	Missed by
Delaware · U.S. Senate · Democratic primarySep 15, 2026	COONS by 67.4	COONS by 58.2	9.2 toward APPELHANS	None

November 3 results are added here as each state certifies them. Other polls are each other pollster's last public poll of the race dated in the 21 days before Election Day. The average of other polls is a simple average of their leads, shown when there are at least 2.

Every poll we compared

Each pollster’s last poll before Election Day

Delaware · U.S. Senate · Democratic primary Sep 15, 2026

Poll	Lead	Missed by
Real result	COONS by 67.4
Our poll Sep 13, 2026	COONS by 58.2	9.2 toward APPELHANS

We don't collect other pollsters' polls for this office.

Not counted

Published too late to be a prediction

Rhode Island · Democratic primary Sep 9, 2026 Published 2026-09-09 8:51 AM EDT on Election Day, after polls opened at 7:00 AM EDT (R.I. Gen. Laws § 17-18-10), so it doesn't count. See what we published

Pollsters are ranked by their average miss across the races they share with us. A pollster needs at least 2 shared races to be ranked. This page updates itself as results are certified and polls are published. Last checked Oct 11, 2026.