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Recent poll highlights

Polled in October 2026Earlier 2026 polls

AlabamaAlaskaArizonaColoradoFloridaGeorgiaIndianaKansasMaineMassachusettsMinnesotaNew JerseyNorth CarolinaNorth DakotaOklahomaPennsylvaniaSouth DakotaTexasWyomingConnecticutMissouriWest VirginiaIllinoisNew MexicoArkansasCaliforniaDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaHawaiiIowaKentuckyMarylandMichiganMississippiMontanaNew HampshireNew YorkOhioOregonTennesseeUtahVirginiaWashingtonWisconsinNebraskaSouth CarolinaIdahoNevadaVermontLouisianaRhode Island
31polls this month
35races
17seats that could flip

Seats that could flip

In all 17 races, the incumbent party is now tied or behind.

Democratic flips
13
Republican flips
1
Net, House
D+9
FL-14, FL-22, PA-01 tied
Net, Senate
D+2

13 Democratic flips

North Carolina SenateHeld by Republicans
Within the margin of error. 3,292 likely voters, ±4.0.
Cooper+6.6
NC-11 · North CarolinaHeld by Republicans
Within the margin of error. 873 likely voters, ±4.7.
Ager+5.7
AZ-01 · ArizonaHeld by Republicans
Within the margin of error. 851 likely voters, ±4.2.
Shah+5.6
CA-48 · CaliforniaHeld by Republicans
Within the margin of error. 1,151 likely voters, ±3.6.
von Wilpert+5.1
PA-07 · PennsylvaniaHeld by Republicans
Within the margin of error. 644 likely voters, ±4.8.
Brooks+4.7
AZ-06 · ArizonaHeld by Republicans
Within the margin of error. 837 likely voters, ±4.8.
Mendoza+4.5
OH-07 · OhioHeld by Republicans
Within the margin of error. 875 likely voters, ±4.1.
Poindexter+4.0
Ohio GovernorHeld by Republicans
Within the margin of error. 2,998 likely voters, ±4.7.
Acton+3.9
Nevada GovernorHeld by Republicans
Within the margin of error. 1,470 likely voters, ±3.8.
Ford+3.7
PA-08 · PennsylvaniaHeld by Republicans
Within the margin of error. 696 likely voters, ±4.6.
Cognetti+3.2
NY-17 · New YorkHeld by Republicans
Within the margin of error. 726 likely voters, ±4.5.
Conley+2.7
PA-10 · PennsylvaniaHeld by Republicans
Within the margin of error. 1,022 likely voters, ±3.9.
Stelson+2.4
Ohio SenateHeld by Republicans
Within the margin of error. 2,998 likely voters, ±4.7.
Brown+2.0

1 Republican flip

Kansas GovernorHeld by Democrats
Within the margin of error. 1,301 likely voters, ±4.6.
Masterson+3.4
FL-14 · FloridaHeld by Democrats— Race tied
Within the margin of error. 708 likely voters, ±4.5.
Castor+0.9
FL-22 · FloridaHeld by Democrats— Race tied
Within the margin of error. 550 likely voters, ±5.1.
Dandiya+0.8
PA-01 · PennsylvaniaHeld by Republicans— Race tied
Within the margin of error. 733 likely voters, ±4.6.
Fitzpatrick+0.1

How to read this. The big number is the leader's share minus the runner-up's. Under 1 point is tied, 1 to 5 points is a narrow lead, over 5 points leads. Every lead here is within the margin of error. None is a call or a projection.

Flips and net. A flip is a seat whose holding party is behind in our poll by 1 point or more; a tie (under 1 point) is not counted. Net is Democratic flips minus Republican flips. Governors: D+1.

Held by is the party that holds the seat today, from the public record of current members of Congress. How we poll

Leader approval

Among likely voters.

Hakeem Jeffries
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hakeem Jeffries is handling his job as House Democratic Leader?
Disapprove
47.3–64.9%
47.3–64.9%
Approve
26.2–38.8%
26.2–38.8%

Lowest to highest across our 31 October polls.

47.3–64.9%disapprove
Chuck Schumer
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader?
Disapprove
58.2–73.8%
58.2–73.8%
Approve
19.4–33.5%
19.4–33.5%

Lowest to highest across our 31 October polls.

58.2–73.8%disapprove
Donald Trump
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Disapprove
50.3–85.0%
50.3–85.0%
Approve
13.4–48.9%
13.4–48.9%

Lowest to highest across our 31 October polls.

50.3–85.0%disapprove
100%

The percentage of our polls in which Hakeem Jeffries is underwater with likely voters.

How to read the bars. Nothing is averaged. Each poll is its own result: the solid part of a bar runs to the lowest poll, the lighter part to the highest, across our published polls that asked the question.

Counts of polls, not a pooled number. Underwater means more likely voters disapprove than approve. Hakeem Jeffries is underwater in 31 of our 31 published polls that asked the question; our polls are separate state and district surveys, not a national sample.

Governors

Arizona

Read the Arizona poll
Hobbs (D)
47.7%
Biggs (R)
41.9%

Hobbs +5.8: leads, within the margin of error. 2,686 likely voters · margin of error ±4.0.

Florida

Read the Florida poll
Donalds (R)
49.8%
Jolly (D)
43.9%

Donalds +5.9: leads, within the margin of error. 4,823 likely voters · margin of error ±3.3.

Kansas

Read the Kansas poll
Masterson (R)
48.6%
Holscher (D)
45.2%

Masterson +3.4: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 1,301 likely voters · margin of error ±4.6.

Michigan

Read the Michigan poll
Benson (D)
47.8%
James (R)
41.8%

Benson +6.1: leads, within the margin of error. 2,696 likely voters · margin of error ±5.0.

Nevada

Read the Nevada poll
Ford (D)
45.4%
Lombardo (R)
41.8%

Ford +3.7: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 1,470 likely voters · margin of error ±3.8.

Ohio

Read the Ohio poll
Acton (D)
47.6%
Ramaswamy (R)
43.7%

Acton +3.9: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 2,998 likely voters · margin of error ±4.7.

Percent of likely voters. Undecided voters stay undecided. Margins of error include the design effect. How we poll

Senate and House

Arizona

Read the AZ-01 pollRead the AZ-06 poll

AZ-01

Shah (D)
48.7%
Feely (R)
43.2%

Shah +5.6: leads, within the margin of error. 851 likely voters · margin of error ±4.2.

AZ-06

Mendoza (D)
47.2%
Ciscomani (R)
42.6%

Mendoza +4.5: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 837 likely voters · margin of error ±4.8.

California

Read the CA-07 pollRead the CA-11 pollRead the CA-48 poll

CA-07

Vang (D)
32.2%
Matsui (D)
31.5%

Vang and Matsui are tied, 0.6 apart, within the margin of error. 722 likely voters · margin of error ±4.7.

CA-11

Wiener (D)
45.6%
Chan (D)
37.6%

Wiener +8.0: leads, within the margin of error. 856 likely voters · margin of error ±4.7.

CA-48

von Wilpert (D)
47.7%
Desmond (R)
42.6%

von Wilpert +5.1: leads, within the margin of error. 1,151 likely voters · margin of error ±3.6.

Florida

Read the Florida pollRead the FL-13 pollRead the FL-14 pollRead the FL-22 pollRead the FL-25 pollRead the FL-27 poll

U.S. Senate

Moody (R)
50.1%
Nixon (D)
42.3%

Moody +7.7: leads, outside the margin of error. 4,823 likely voters · margin of error ±3.3.

FL-13

Luna (R)
48.1%
Gray (D)
45.1%

Luna +3.0: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 875 likely voters · margin of error ±4.0.

FL-14

Castor (D)
45.6%
Beltran (R)
44.7%

Castor and Beltran are tied, 0.9 apart, within the margin of error. 708 likely voters · margin of error ±4.5.

FL-22

Dandiya (D)
46.3%
Askar (R)
45.5%

Dandiya and Askar are tied, 0.8 apart, within the margin of error. 550 likely voters · margin of error ±5.1.

FL-25

Moskowitz (D)
46.0%
Singer (R)
40.4%

Moskowitz +5.5: leads, within the margin of error. 643 likely voters · margin of error ±4.7.

FL-27

Salazar (R)
49.1%
Rodriguez (D)
46.4%

Salazar +2.7: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 523 likely voters · margin of error ±5.5.

Kansas

Read the Kansas poll

U.S. Senate

Marshall (R)
46.7%
Hamilton (D)
43.8%

Marshall +2.9: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 1,301 likely voters · margin of error ±4.6.

Michigan

Read the Michigan pollRead the MI-04 pollRead the MI-10 poll

U.S. Senate

El-Sayed (D)
48.3%
Rogers (R)
43.1%

El-Sayed +5.2: leads, within the margin of error. 2,696 likely voters · margin of error ±5.0.

MI-04

Huizenga (R)
46.9%
McCann (D)
43.7%

Huizenga +3.2: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 787 likely voters · margin of error ±6.6.

MI-10

Bouchard (R)
47.2%
Hines (D)
42.4%

Bouchard +4.8: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 889 likely voters · margin of error ±4.9.

Montana

Read the MT-01 poll

MT-01

Flint (R)
48.0%
Forstag (D)
46.0%

Flint +2.0: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 754 likely voters · margin of error ±4.6.

Nevada

Read the NV-03 poll

NV-03

Lee (D)
49.4%
O'Donnell (R)
41.7%

Lee +7.7: leads, within the margin of error. 687 likely voters · margin of error ±5.1.

New York

Read the NY-17 poll

NY-17

Conley (D)
48.2%
Lawler (R)
45.5%

Conley +2.7: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 726 likely voters · margin of error ±4.5.

North Carolina

Read the North Carolina pollRead the NC-01 pollRead the NC-11 poll

U.S. Senate

Cooper (D)
50.1%
Whatley (R)
43.5%

Cooper +6.6: leads, within the margin of error. 3,292 likely voters · margin of error ±4.0.

NC-01

Davis (D)
45.3%
Buckhout (R)
43.5%

Davis +1.8: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 1,468 likely voters · margin of error ±3.6.

NC-11

Ager (D)
49.9%
Balkcom (R)
44.1%

Ager +5.7: leads, within the margin of error. 873 likely voters · margin of error ±4.7.

Ohio

Read the Ohio pollRead the OH-01 pollRead the OH-07 pollRead the OH-09 poll

U.S. Senate

Brown (D)
46.3%
Husted (R)
44.3%

Brown +2.0: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 2,998 likely voters · margin of error ±4.7.

OH-01

Landsman (D)
48.0%
Conroy (R)
39.0%

Landsman +9.1: leads, outside the margin of error. 821 likely voters · margin of error ±4.3.

OH-07

Poindexter (D)
45.7%
Miller (R)
41.7%

Poindexter +4.0: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 875 likely voters · margin of error ±4.1.

OH-09

Kaptur (D)
49.4%
Merrin (R)
43.4%

Kaptur +6.0: leads, within the margin of error. 858 likely voters · margin of error ±4.5.

Pennsylvania

Read the PA-01 pollRead the PA-07 pollRead the PA-08 pollRead the PA-10 poll

PA-01

Fitzpatrick (R)
46.1%
Harvie (D)
46.0%

Fitzpatrick and Harvie are tied, 0.1 apart, within the margin of error. 733 likely voters · margin of error ±4.6.

PA-07

Brooks (D)
48.6%
Mackenzie (R)
43.9%

Brooks +4.7: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 644 likely voters · margin of error ±4.8.

PA-08

Cognetti (D)
48.7%
Bresnahan (R)
45.5%

Cognetti +3.2: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 696 likely voters · margin of error ±4.6.

PA-10

Stelson (D)
47.6%
Perry (R)
45.2%

Stelson +2.4: narrow lead, within the margin of error. 1,022 likely voters · margin of error ±3.9.

Our publishing standard. We publish a poll only when its margin of error is ±7.0 points or less. A poll above that limit is held back from the current releases. How we poll

Earlier polls and research

AZ-04 Democratic primaryJul 6–8, 2026Delaware Democratic primarySep 13, 2026MO-01 Democratic primaryJul 19–20, 2026NY-15 Democratic primaryApr 28–May 10, 2026Rhode Island Democratic primarySep 4–9, 2026How accurate are our polls?our results against the countAll published releasesthe full archive