RedBox Research · Election night, November 3, 2026
FL-14
U.S. House, Florida: the count beside our final poll and our turnout model
- Cook rating
- Toss-up
as of 2026-10-23
- Our final poll
- Castor +1
D+0.9 among all respondents
- The count
- No count yet
Polls close 8 p.m. ET · the state's results
- Against our final poll
- Once votes are counted
- Turnout against our model
- Our model expects 241,092 votes
54.1% of 445,455 registered voters
| County | Votes counted | Reporting | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hillsborough | – | – | – |
Against our final poll is the count's Democratic margin less our final poll's (each the Democrat's share less the Republican's; the poll's shares include undecided respondents). Early counts lean toward whichever ballots a state counts first, mail or Election Day, so read it beside how much of the expected vote is in.
Turnout against our model holds the votes counted against our voter-file turnout model (as of 2026-10-06): below 100% while the count runs; once every precinct reports, above 100% is more voters than we expected. The model could not place 4.8% of the state's expected voters in a district, so a district's expectation can run that much low.
By county we have no vote-share model outside Florida and North Carolina, so counties show the count as the state reports it.
The count is unofficial: each state's own election-night results, read every few minutes; it shows once the state posts votes after its first polls close.