CA-48 · U.S. House
von Wilpert +5.1
MW
Marni von Wilpert(D)
47.7%
JD
Jim Desmond(R)
42.6%
Leads, within the margin of error.
October 20–23, 2026 · CA-48
California
von Wilpert leads Desmond for the House
(D)
(R)
Governor
Becerra +6.0
XB
Xavier Becerra(D)
48.5%
SH
Steve Hilton(R)
42.5%
Leads, within the margin of error.
How to read the races. Percent of likely voters. Lead is the leader's share minus the runner-up's: under 1 point is tied, 1 to 5 points a narrow lead, over 5 points leads. The margin on the gap between two candidates is larger than the ±3.6 on one share.
California's 48th Congressional District poll: Wilpert leads Desmond for Congress
Marni von Wilpert leads Jim Desmond for Congress in California's 48th Congressional District, 47.7% to 42.6%, in our poll of 1,151 likely voters, taken October 20 to 23. That's within the margin of error. The poll's margin of error is ±3.6 points. Undecided and other answers add up to 9.7%.
In the district, Xavier Becerra leads Steve Hilton for governor, 48.5% to 42.5%, within the margin of error (n = 1,151; the poll's margin of error ±3.6 points).
Independents favor Wilpert, 52.6% to 33.2%. Women favor Wilpert, 51.3% to 40.2%. Men favor Desmond, 45.7% to 44.5%.
Hakeem Jeffries is underwater: 33.4% approve of how he's handling his job as House Democratic Leader, and 56.6% disapprove. Asked whether Jeffries should become Speaker if Democrats win the House, 48.6% said Democrats should choose someone else and 18.5% said Jeffries. Among Democrats, 42.5% want someone else.
Chuck Schumer is underwater: 29.0% approve of how he's handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader, and 63.1% disapprove. Asked whether Schumer should become Majority Leader if Democrats win the Senate, 64.6% said Democrats should choose someone else and 9.3% said Schumer. Among Democrats, 63.8% want someone else.
The crosstabs and our full methodology are on this page.
Governor
Xavier Becerra (D)48.5%
Steve Hilton (R)42.5%
Undecided3.8%
Prefer not to answer3.1%
Someone else1.3%
Did not vote in this race0.9%
U.S. House
Marni von Wilpert (D)47.7%
Jim Desmond (R)42.6%
Undecided3.8%
Prefer not to answer2.7%
Someone else2.2%
Did not vote in this race1.0%
Voters who said they had already voted were asked who they voted for. Shares may not add to 100 because of rounding. A dash is an answer the release doesn't report on its own.
Hakeem Jeffries
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hakeem Jeffries is handling his job as House Democratic Leader?”
All likely voters
Approve 33.4%
Disapprove 56.6%
ApproveDisapprove
Hakeem Jeffries
“If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else?”
All likely voters
18.5%
48.6%
Jeffries should become SpeakerDemocrats should choose someone else
Chuck Schumer
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader?”
All likely voters
Approve 29.0%
Disapprove 63.1%
ApproveDisapprove
Chuck Schumer
“If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, should Chuck Schumer become Majority Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else?”
All likely voters
9.3%
64.6%
Schumer should become Majority LeaderDemocrats should choose someone else
Donald Trump
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?”
All likely voters
Approve 40.4%
Disapprove 58.2%
ApproveDisapprove
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job?”
All likely voters
Approve 38.6%
Disapprove 57.7%
ApproveDisapprove
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job?”
All likely voters
Approve 38.5%
Disapprove 58.4%
ApproveDisapprove
All likely voters: n = 1,151, ±3.6 points. Party is the party respondents said they identify with, or their voter-file registration where they didn't say; a smaller group carries a larger margin. Every poll
Pick any question in this poll and see how each group answered it: gender, age, race, education, party, ideology, 2024 vote, turnout and geography.
When a group has fewer than 50 interviews, its numbers are not shown; 50 to 99 interviews are marked for caution.
- Likely voters
- 1,151 California's 48th Congressional District
- Margin of error
- ±3.6 points design effect 1.59 included
- Field dates
- Oct 20–23, 2026 first invitation to last interview, Eastern time
- Mode
- Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey
- Sponsor
- A Fight Worth Having super PAC, FEC C00933085
Disclosure. Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having (super PAC, FEC C00933085); conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit. Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey. California's 48th Congressional District likely voters, n = 1,151, margin of error ±3.6 points including the design effect.