AZ-01 · U.S. House
Shah +5.6
(D)
48.7%
(R)
43.2%
Leads, within the margin of error.
October 20–23, 2026 · AZ-01
Arizona
Shah leads Feely for the House
(D)
(R)
Governor
Hobbs +9.3
(D)
50.8%
(R)
41.6%
Leads, outside the margin of error.
How to read the races. Percent of likely voters. Lead is the leader's share minus the runner-up's: under 1 point is tied, 1 to 5 points a narrow lead, over 5 points leads. The margin on the gap between two candidates is larger than the ±4.2 on one share.
Photos. Amish Shah: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0; Jay Feely: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0; Katie Hobbs: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0; Andy Biggs: Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0; via Wikimedia Commons, cropped and tinted. Other photos are official government portraits.
Arizona's 1st Congressional District poll: Shah leads Feely for Congress
Amish Shah leads Thomas "Jay" Feely IV for Congress in Arizona's 1st Congressional District, 48.7% to 43.2%, in our poll of 851 likely voters, taken October 20 to 23. That's within the margin of error. The poll's margin of error is ±4.2 points. Undecided and other answers add up to 8.1%.
In the district, Katie Hobbs leads Andy Biggs for governor, 50.8% to 41.6% (n = 851; the poll's margin of error ±4.2 points).
Independents favor Shah, 55.7% to 31.7%. Women favor Shah, 50.3% to 42.6%. Men favor Shah, 48.7% to 43.4%.
Hakeem Jeffries is underwater: 32.7% approve of how he's handling his job as House Democratic Leader, and 56.2% disapprove. Asked whether Jeffries should become Speaker if Democrats win the House, 47.0% said Democrats should choose someone else and 19.0% said Jeffries. Among Democrats, 38.9% want someone else.
Chuck Schumer is underwater: 24.9% approve of how he's handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader, and 66.9% disapprove. Asked whether Schumer should become Majority Leader if Democrats win the Senate, 64.1% said Democrats should choose someone else and 7.4% said Schumer. Among Democrats, 70.0% want someone else.
The crosstabs and our full methodology are on this page.
Governor
Katie Hobbs (D)50.8%
Andy Biggs (R)41.6%
Undecided2.3%
Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party1.7%
Prefer not to answer1.6%
Someone else1.2%
Risa Lombardo (G)0.7%
Did not vote in this race—
U.S. House
Amish Shah (D)48.7%
Thomas "Jay" Feely IV (R)43.2%
Monica Alponte (L)2.6%
Undecided2.3%
Someone else1.9%
Prefer not to answer1.4%
Did not vote in this race—
Voters who said they had already voted were asked who they voted for. Shares may not add to 100 because of rounding. A dash is an answer the release doesn't report on its own.
Hakeem Jeffries
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hakeem Jeffries is handling his job as House Democratic Leader?”
All likely voters
Approve 32.7%
Disapprove 56.2%
ApproveDisapprove
Hakeem Jeffries
“If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else?”
All likely voters
19.0%
47.0%
Jeffries should become SpeakerDemocrats should choose someone else
Chuck Schumer
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader?”
All likely voters
Approve 24.9%
Disapprove 66.9%
ApproveDisapprove
Chuck Schumer
“If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, should Chuck Schumer become Majority Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else?”
All likely voters
7.4%
64.1%
Schumer should become Majority LeaderDemocrats should choose someone else
Donald Trump
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?”
All likely voters
Approve 42.3%
Disapprove 56.7%
ApproveDisapprove
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job?”
All likely voters
Approve 36.6%
Disapprove 60.3%
ApproveDisapprove
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job?”
All likely voters
Approve 38.8%
Disapprove 59.4%
ApproveDisapprove
All likely voters: n = 851, ±4.2 points. Party is the party respondents said they identify with, or their voter-file registration where they didn't say; a smaller group carries a larger margin. Every poll
Pick any question in this poll and see how each group answered it: gender, age, race, education, party, ideology, 2024 vote, turnout and geography.
When a group has fewer than 50 interviews, its numbers are not shown; 50 to 99 interviews are marked for caution.
- Likely voters
- 851 Arizona's 1st Congressional District
- Margin of error
- ±4.2 points design effect 1.57 included
- Field dates
- Oct 20–23, 2026 first invitation to last interview, Eastern time
- Mode
- Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey
- Sponsor
- A Fight Worth Having super PAC, FEC C00933085
Disclosure. Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having (super PAC, FEC C00933085); conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit. Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey. Arizona's 1st Congressional District likely voters, n = 851, margin of error ±4.2 points including the design effect.