FL-14 · U.S. House
Castor +0.9
KC
Kathy Castor(D)
45.6%
MB
Mike Beltran(R)
44.7%
Tied, within the margin of error.
October 20–23, 2026 · FL-14
Florida
Castor and Beltran are tied for the House
(D)
(R)
U.S. Senate
Moody +2.4
(R)
47.5%
(D)
45.0%
Narrow lead, within the margin of error.
Governor
Jolly +2.5
(D)
47.0%
(R)
44.5%
Narrow lead, within the margin of error.
How to read the races. Percent of likely voters. Lead is the leader's share minus the runner-up's: under 1 point is tied, 1 to 5 points a narrow lead, over 5 points leads. The margin on the gap between two candidates is larger than the ±4.5 on one share.
Florida's 14th Congressional District poll: Castor and Beltran tied for Congress
Kathy Castor and Mike Beltran are tied for Congress in Florida's 14th Congressional District, 45.6% to 44.7%, in our poll of 708 likely voters, taken October 20 to 23. That's within the margin of error. The poll's margin of error is ±4.5 points. Undecided and other answers add up to 9.7%.
In the district, David Jolly has a narrow lead over Byron Donalds for governor, 47.0% to 44.5%, within the margin of error (n = 708; the poll's margin of error ±4.5 points). Ashley Moody has a narrow lead over Angie Nixon for Senate, 47.5% to 45.0%, within the margin of error (n = 708; the poll's margin of error ±4.5 points).
Independents favor Castor, 64.3% to 18.0%. Women favor Castor, 49.3% to 43.2%. Men favor Beltran, 46.7% to 41.7%.
Hakeem Jeffries is underwater: 30.6% approve of how he's handling his job as House Democratic Leader, and 59.8% disapprove. Asked whether Jeffries should become Speaker if Democrats win the House, 46.8% said Democrats should choose someone else and 17.1% said Jeffries. Among Democrats, 37.0% want someone else.
Chuck Schumer is underwater: 28.4% approve of how he's handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader, and 63.3% disapprove. Asked whether Schumer should become Majority Leader if Democrats win the Senate, 58.4% said Democrats should choose someone else and 12.6% said Schumer. Among Democrats, 54.0% want someone else.
The crosstabs and our full methodology are on this page.
U.S. Senate
Ashley Moody (R)47.5%
Angie Nixon (D)45.0%
Undecided3.3%
Prefer not to answer2.6%
Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation1.1%
Someone else0.2%
Did not vote in this race0.2%
Governor
David Jolly (D)47.0%
Byron Donalds (R)44.5%
Undecided3.1%
Prefer not to answer2.1%
Someone else1.4%
Scott Eckhard Jewett (L)0.9%
Did not vote in this race0.6%
Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation0.2%
Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation0.2%
Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation—
Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation—
Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation—
U.S. House
Kathy Castor (D)45.6%
Mike Beltran (R)44.7%
Brian Lambert (L)3.5%
Undecided3.2%
Prefer not to answer1.8%
Someone else1.1%
Did not vote in this race0.1%
Voters who said they had already voted were asked who they voted for. Shares may not add to 100 because of rounding. A dash is an answer the release doesn't report on its own.
Hakeem Jeffries
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hakeem Jeffries is handling his job as House Democratic Leader?”
All likely voters
Approve 30.6%
Disapprove 59.8%
ApproveDisapprove
Hakeem Jeffries
“If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else?”
All likely voters
17.1%
46.8%
Jeffries should become SpeakerDemocrats should choose someone else
Chuck Schumer
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader?”
All likely voters
Approve 28.4%
Disapprove 63.3%
ApproveDisapprove
Chuck Schumer
“If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, should Chuck Schumer become Majority Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else?”
All likely voters
12.6%
58.4%
Schumer should become Majority LeaderDemocrats should choose someone else
Donald Trump
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?”
All likely voters
Approve 43.0%
Disapprove 54.2%
ApproveDisapprove
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job?”
All likely voters
Approve 34.7%
Disapprove 59.7%
ApproveDisapprove
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job?”
All likely voters
Approve 41.7%
Disapprove 54.1%
ApproveDisapprove
All likely voters: n = 708, ±4.5 points. Party is the party respondents said they identify with, or their voter-file registration where they didn't say; a smaller group carries a larger margin. Every poll
Pick any question in this poll and see how each group answered it: gender, age, race, education, party, ideology, 2024 vote, turnout and geography.
When a group has fewer than 50 interviews, its numbers are not shown; 50 to 99 interviews are marked for caution.
- Likely voters
- 708 Florida's 14th Congressional District
- Margin of error
- ±4.5 points design effect 1.48 included
- Field dates
- Oct 20–23, 2026 first invitation to last interview, Eastern time
- Mode
- Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey
- Sponsor
- A Fight Worth Having super PAC, FEC C00933085
Disclosure. Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having (super PAC, FEC C00933085); conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit. Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey. Florida's 14th Congressional District likely voters, n = 708, margin of error ±4.5 points including the design effect.