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RedBox Research · Florida · Data

Florida poll data

Everything an outside analyst needs to check or redo our Florida work, kept separate for each poll.

Florida Final Poll · Methodology · Crosstabs

Downloads

Files for each poll

These are the packages our polling system builds for public release, one set per poll. The analysis lineage file records the scope, the weighting model and the checksum of every file in the package.

Under each package are files for your own analysis: the unweighted toplines and crosstabs as CSV (crosstabs in long format, one row per cell: poll, question, banner, group, answer, n, share and the group's base; withheld cells blank) and as one Excel workbook with a README sheet, and each questionnaire as fielded, in Word. The Oct 20–23 poll fielded a statewide version and one version per oversampled district.

Oct 30–31 poll (final week)

Release package (Word, Excel, text; no CSV files)

For your own analysis

Oct 20–23 poll

Release as published Oct 26 (v7). Our Oct 20–23 poll stands as published. Run through the final poll's model, its interviews give Moody +4 and Donalds +2; that is a note, not a release.

For your own analysis

Re-interview panel (Oct 20–23 respondents)

For your own analysis

The Oct 30–31 package includes its AAPOR disclosure. The Polling Center's weighted crosstabs for that poll are also one CSV: crosstabs.csv.

Analysis files behind the final poll

Aggregate files from the final poll's analysis (Nov 1). None holds a respondent or a voter record.

The three polls at a glance

Three samples, reported separately

Two fresh samples of the Florida voter file, and a re-interview of the first poll's respondents. The panel is unweighted: it has no weighting run, so it has no AAPOR rates or design effect.

MeasureOct 20–23Oct 30–31Re-interview panel
First interview (ET)Oct 20, 11:56 AMOct 30, 7:52 PMOct 30, 6:40 PM
Last interview (ET)Oct 23, 9:57 PMOct 31, 10:21 PMNov 1, 8:50 AM
Voter-file records drawn (frame)2,100,402755,8312,798
Texts sent656,573560,1972,685
People texted580,088292,2032,685
Completes4,8362,898540
Completes in the weighting run4,8232,898—
Response rate (AAPOR RR1)0.24%0.38%—
Cooperation rate (COOP1)11.12%11.17%—
Contact rate (CON1)2.12%3.43%—
Completes answered in Spanish02780
Design effect3.171.37—
Effective n1,5202,120—
Weighting run id5a2a82f0-3e85-4ff3-9697-6f85d710d64e0ce0a336-038a-43ac-8075-d5b358ba82e0None (unweighted)

Why the response rates are low by construction

RR1 divides completes by every voter-file record drawn, and each draw includes reserve records that were never texted. On Oct 30–31, 755,831 records were drawn and 292,203 people were texted; 463,033 drawn records were not attempted at all (no text sent, no call dialed). On Oct 20–23 the figures are 2,100,402 drawn, 580,088 texted and 1,467,236 not attempted. Those untried records stay in the denominator as eligible, because the questionnaire has no eligibility screener and AAPOR's Standard Definitions treat an unreached named-list case as eligible when none is required. That is why RR1 and RR3 are the same.

From the AAPOR calculation (Oct 30–31): e = 1.0000: proportional allocation (the default of AAPOR Survey Outcome Rate Calculator 5.1 (2023), List Samples sheet) over the 25,942 cases whose eligibility was settled by contact (25,942 eligible, 0 screened out). Duplicate listings are left out because the frame check removed them from every drawn case. The questionnaire has no eligibility screener, and the Standard Definitions treat an unreached named-list case as eligible when none is required.

Notes on the counts

  • Completes are counted on each sample draw and include every completion on that draw, including any after the weighting run's cutoff.
  • Oct 20–23: the weighting run of the release as published Oct 26 (v7) weighted 4,823 completes; the draws show 4,836 completed interviews. These records don't explain the difference of 13.
  • Oct 30–31: the weighting run covers 11 sample campaigns. Five district fill campaigns sent nothing and have no completes; the five that fielded total 397 completes. Two fresh fills fielded Nov 1 are not in this run.
  • Spanish: a completed interview counts as Spanish when any answer was given in the Spanish version of the survey. On Oct 30–31, 278 completes (236 main sample, 42 fills) answered in Spanish, and the release record lists English and Spanish as its languages. Oct 20–23 and the panel had none.
  • Texts sent counts messages with a sent or issued status.
  • The re-interview panel was still open when this was built, with 540 completed interviews.

Methods

How the polls were done

Sampling

Every respondent was drawn at random from the Florida voter file (the official state extract dated 2026-06-30). Each poll combined a statewide sample with congressional-district samples (FL-13, FL-14, FL-22, FL-25, FL-27). A voter could be drawn by both, so the samples are combined by a dual-frame design (Hartley's dual-frame estimator with a Kish composite, rule hartley_dual_frame_kish_composite_v1). The re-interview panel re-contacted respondents to the Oct 20–23 poll. No voter was interviewed in both fresh samples.

Mode and language

Text message to a web survey. Phone numbers come from the voter file and from L2 cell-phone appends (see L2 below). No calls were dialed for these polls. The Oct 30–31 survey could be taken in English or Spanish; the Oct 20–23 poll and the panel had no Spanish interviews.

The likely-voter model

No question screened respondents out of the interview. Each respondent's voter-file turnout score was updated by their answer to the vote-intention question (Q13), with an odds ratio of 2.42 between the lowest and highest answers. Respondents who said they had already voted (Q1) counted as certain to vote; a missing answer kept the file score; anyone else whose file score was zero got no weight. Each respondent's weight was multiplied by the updated score before raking to the targets.

That is the Oct 30–31 rule, where the vote-intention question is item 13 of its questionnaire. The Oct 20–23 poll used the same rule; there the question is item 14 (turnout_intention_0_9) of the statewide questionnaire below.

Weighting: the house rule

Weights come from bounded raking with weights trimmed at the 1st and 99th percentiles. The published estimate is our standard house rule (FINAL RULE v2, coordinator 4:20 PM ET Oct 23 2026 (services.tied_set_estimate)): it averages four raking recipes (A-des, A-ts, CF-des, CF-ts), with 500 resamples; the recipe families' weights in the average were A 0.074 and CF 0.926 for Oct 20–23 (as published Oct 26 (v7)), and A 0.016 and CF 0.984 for Oct 30–31. Each poll is weighted on its own run.

Targets, their sources, and when they were set

  • Registered party. The expected November 3 electorate projected from Florida's early-vote reports. This target was revised on Oct 31 from the early-vote reports, after fieldwork and after earlier results had been seen.
  • 2024 presidential vote (recalled). Set on Nov 1 from records plus a published misreport measurement: this year's projected electorate's 2024 vote from voter-file 2024 vote history and certified county and precinct results (Harris 42.7% of the two-party vote among projected voters with a 2024 vote on record), adjusted for the rate at which voters now misremember their 2024 vote, as measured by re-interviewing the same panelists (G. Elliott Morris / Verasight, October 22, 2026). The result is Harris 44.0% of recalled two-party vote. It was set after fieldwork and after earlier results had been seen. That study is national, not Florida.
  • Race and ethnicity. Weighted to the 2022 electorate's recorded race in the Florida voter file, with a verified surname-and-geography estimate for voters who recorded none.
  • Age, gender and congressional district. From the turnout model's predicted 2026 electorate, trained only on elections since 2016, set in advance. Only the party target was revised on Oct 31.
  • Education. On Census Current Population Survey (CPS) categories.

Those are the Oct 30–31 targets. The Oct 20–23 poll as published Oct 26 (v7) keeps the targets in force when its weighting run was made on Oct 25: registered party, age, gender and congressional district from the turnout ruling of Oct 19, made before fieldwork; recalled 2024 vote to the certified 2024 presidential result (Harris 43.4% of the two-party vote, from county returns); race and education as above. The Oct 31 party revision and the Nov 1 recall target came after it and are not applied to it.

The 2024-vote anchor and alternatives to it are tested in our records: the projected electorate with a 2024 vote on record comes to Harris 42.72% two-party against 43.39% certified, and each recall point moves the Senate margin by about 1.2 points.

Margin of error

Sampling error only, at 95% confidence, computed on the effective sample size (completes divided by the design effect). Oct 30–31 alone: design effect 1.37, effective n 2,120, about ±2.1 points per candidate and ±4.1 on the gap between two candidates. Oct 20–23 as published Oct 26 (v7): design effect 3.17, effective n 1,520. It doesn't include uncertainty about who will vote or the weighting choices above.

Suppression

The release packages and the Polling Center's crosstabs show no number for a group of fewer than 50 respondents and mark 50 to 99 as caution. The unweighted tables on this page use their own rule: a cell is withheld when the group has fewer than 30 respondents in the item's base (the group's n is always shown). Registered party comes from the voter file, not self-description.

Code versions

  • c016164749 The house-rule sensitivity runner replays a read under supplied 2024 recall shares and can write the estimate's per-respondent weights.
  • 4805f06d1a A scope's house read can weight to a receipted recall-target record in place of the certified 2024 shares.
  • d8cb0f4e0d The methods text gives a recall-target record's source as its own sentence and says when a record was ruled after fieldwork.
  • 95ae1e1a37 The sensitivity runner pools several reads into one combined sample, refused unless their targets are identical.
  • cb4f168b18 The sensitivity runner pools reads on one read's targets; each differing value is recorded and the recall and education held cells are rebuilt on the pooled respondents.
  • 10dbf79090 Only a candidate ballot item and its lean read 'Not sure' as Undecided in the public package.
  • 29b0343d64 The sensitivity runner's pool_shares rule effective_n: each read counts in proportion to its stored effective sample size (the combined estimate's rule).

Questionnaires

Every question, as asked

Full text, answer options and skip logic for each poll, from the frozen questionnaire versions. Each Word file is rendered from the survey version the poll fielded; its (KEY: …) tags are the column names in the data files.

Oct 30–31 poll
Questionnaire: FL 2026 final-week statewide and leadership, version 5 (frozen 2026-10-30)
Title: FL 2026 final-week statewide and leadership
1. [q1] How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 general election in {place}?
   Options: Already voted / Extremely likely / Very likely / Somewhat likely / Somewhat unlikely / Very unlikely / Extremely unlikely / Don't know / No opinion
2. [senate_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. Senate?
   Options: Ashley Moody, Republican / Angie Nixon, Democrat / Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”.
3. [senate_vote_current] If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?
   Options: Ashley Moody, Republican / Angie Nixon, Democrat / Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Undecided
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”.
4. [senate_vote_current_lean] If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward?
   Options: Ashley Moody, Republican / Angie Nixon, Democrat / Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Still undecided
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Undecided”.
5. [senate_vote_current_intensity] Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate?
   Options: Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Ashley Moody, Republican” or “Angie Nixon, Democrat” or “Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation”.
6. [governor_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for Governor?
   Options: Byron Donalds, Republican / David Jolly, Democrat / Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian / Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation / Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation / Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation / Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation / Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”.
7. [governor_vote_current] If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for?
   Options: Byron Donalds, Republican / David Jolly, Democrat / Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian / Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation / Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation / Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation / Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation / Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Undecided
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”.
8. [governor_vote_current_lean] If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward?
   Options: Byron Donalds, Republican / David Jolly, Democrat / Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian / Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation / Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation / Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation / Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation / Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Still undecided
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Undecided”.
9. [governor_vote_current_intensity] Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate?
   Options: Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Byron Donalds, Republican” or “David Jolly, Democrat” or “Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian” or “Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation” or “Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation” or “Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation” or “Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation” or “Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation”.
10. [pres_2024_recall] Who did you vote for in the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, or did you not vote?
   Options: Donald Trump / Kamala Harris / Someone else / I did not vote / Don't know / No opinion
11. [election_attention] How much have you thought about this election?
   Options: A great deal / Some / A little / Not at all / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer
12. [enthusiasm] When it comes to the November election, would you say you are very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic, not very enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?
   Options: Very enthusiastic / Somewhat enthusiastic / Not very enthusiastic / Not at all enthusiastic / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”.
13. [turnout_intention_0_9] On a scale from 0 to 9, where 0 means you definitely will not vote and 9 means you definitely will vote, how likely are you to vote in this election?
   Options: 0 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”.
14. [vote_timing_oct23] When did you cast your ballot in the November 3, 2026 general election? If you voted by mail, please tell us when you mailed or returned your ballot.
   Options: On or before October 23 / October 24 or later / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”.
15. [vote_method_cast_20261030] How did you cast your ballot in the November 3, 2026 general election?
   Options: In person at an early voting location / By mail / By returning a mail ballot to a drop box or election office / In person on Election Day / Another way / Don't know / Prefer not to answer
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”.
16. [vote_method_planned_20261030] How do you currently plan to cast your ballot in the November 3, 2026 general election?
   Options: In person at an early voting location / In person on Election Day / By mail / By returning a mail ballot to a drop box or election office / Another way / Not sure yet / I do not plan to vote
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”.
17. [vote_when_planned_20261030] When do you currently plan to cast or return your ballot? If voting by mail, please tell us when you plan to mail or return it.
   Options: Before Election Day, November 3 / On Election Day, November 3 / After Election Day, November 3 / Not sure yet / I do not plan to vote
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and were asked Q16 and did not answer “I do not plan to vote” or “In person on Election Day”.
18. [voting_feeling_recalled_20261030] Thinking back to when you cast your ballot, how did you feel about voting in this election?
   Options: Very enthusiastic / Somewhat enthusiastic / Not very enthusiastic / Not at all enthusiastic / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”.
19. [age_band] What is your age?
   Options: 18 to 29 / 30 to 44 / 45 to 54 / 55 to 64 / 65 or older / Prefer not to answer
20. [gender] What is your gender?
   Options: Man / Woman / Nonbinary or another gender / Prefer not to answer
21. [hispanic] Are you Hispanic or Latino?
   Options: Yes / No / Prefer not to answer
22. [race] How would you describe your racial background?
   Options: White / Black or African American / Asian or Pacific Islander / Native American or Indigenous / Middle Eastern or North African / Other or multiracial / Prefer not to answer
23. [education] What is the highest level of school you have completed?
   Options: Less than high school / High school graduate / Vocational or trade school / Some college, no degree / Associate's degree / Bachelor's degree / Graduate or professional degree / Prefer not to answer
24. [party_identity] Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?
   Options: Democrat / Republican / Independent / Another party / Don't know / No opinion
25. [party_strength_democrat] Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat?
   Options: Strong Democrat / Not very strong Democrat / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q24 “Democrat”.
26. [party_strength_republican] Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican?
   Options: Strong Republican / Not very strong Republican / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q24 “Republican”.
27. [party_lean] And as of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or neither?
   Options: The Democratic Party / The Republican Party / Neither / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q24 “Independent” or “Another party” or “Don't know / No opinion”.
28. [senate_majority_leader_choice_20261030] If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, which of these people would you prefer to see as Senate Majority Leader?
   Options: Chuck Schumer / Bernie Sanders / Someone else / No opinion
   Answer options shown in random order.
29. [house_speaker_choice_20261030] If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, which of these people would you prefer to see as Speaker of the House?
   Options: Hakeem Jeffries / Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez / Someone else / No opinion
   Answer options shown in random order.
Closing message: Thank you. Those are all the questions.
Oct 20–23 poll
Questionnaire: FL 2026 general, version 1 (frozen 2026-10-15)
Title: FL 2026 general
1. [q1] How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 general election in {place}?
   Options: Already voted / Extremely likely / Very likely / Somewhat likely / Somewhat unlikely / Very unlikely / Extremely unlikely / Don't know / No opinion
2. [senate_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. Senate?
   Options: Ashley Moody, Republican / Angie Nixon, Democrat / Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”.
3. [senate_vote_current] If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?
   Options: Ashley Moody, Republican / Angie Nixon, Democrat / Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Undecided
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”.
4. [senate_vote_current_lean] If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward?
   Options: Ashley Moody, Republican / Angie Nixon, Democrat / Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Still undecided
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Undecided”.
5. [senate_vote_current_intensity] Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate?
   Options: Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Ashley Moody, Republican” or “Angie Nixon, Democrat” or “Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation”.
6. [governor_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for Governor?
   Options: Byron Donalds, Republican / David Jolly, Democrat / Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian / Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation / Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation / Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation / Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation / Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”.
7. [governor_vote_current] If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for?
   Options: Byron Donalds, Republican / David Jolly, Democrat / Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian / Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation / Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation / Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation / Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation / Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Undecided
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”.
8. [governor_vote_current_lean] If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward?
   Options: Byron Donalds, Republican / David Jolly, Democrat / Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian / Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation / Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation / Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation / Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation / Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Still undecided
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Undecided”.
9. [governor_vote_current_intensity] Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate?
   Options: Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Byron Donalds, Republican” or “David Jolly, Democrat” or “Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian” or “Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation” or “Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation” or “Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation” or “Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation” or “Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation”.
10. [generic_ballot_past] In this year's general election for Congress, which party's candidate did you vote for in your district?
   Options: The Democratic candidate / The Republican candidate / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
   Answer options shown in random order.
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”.
11. [generic_ballot] If the 2026 general election for Congress were held today, which party's candidate would you be more likely to vote for in your district?
   Options: The Democratic candidate / The Republican candidate / Someone else / Undecided
   Answer options shown in random order.
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”.
12. [election_attention] How much have you thought about this election?
   Options: A great deal / Some / A little / Not at all / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer
13. [enthusiasm] When it comes to the November election, would you say you are very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic, not very enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?
   Options: Very enthusiastic / Somewhat enthusiastic / Not very enthusiastic / Not at all enthusiastic / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”.
14. [turnout_intention_0_9] On a scale from 0 to 9, where 0 means you definitely will not vote and 9 means you definitely will vote, how likely are you to vote in this election?
   Options: 0 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”.
15. [jeffries_leader_approval] Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hakeem Jeffries is handling his job as House Democratic Leader?
   Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked in random order with the other questions in group “job_approval_order”.
16. [schumer_leader_approval] Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader?
   Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked in random order with the other questions in group “job_approval_order”.
17. [trump_job_approval] Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
   Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked in random order with the other questions in group “job_approval_order”.
18. [democrats_congress_approval] Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job?
   Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked in random order with the other questions in group “job_approval_order”.
19. [republicans_congress_approval] Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job?
   Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked in random order with the other questions in group “job_approval_order”.
20. [dem_course] Should Democrats in Congress stay on their current course, or change direction?
   Options: Stay on their current course / Change direction / Don't know / No opinion
21. [house_democratic_leadership] If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else?
   Options: Jeffries should become Speaker / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion
22. [senate_democratic_leadership] If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, should Chuck Schumer become Majority Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else?
   Options: Schumer should become Majority Leader / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion
23. [fav_inst_health_insurers] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of health insurance companies?
   Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked in random order with the other questions in group “favorability_institutions_order”.
24. [fav_inst_drug_companies] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of drug companies?
   Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked in random order with the other questions in group “favorability_institutions_order”.
25. [fav_inst_electric_utilities] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of electric utility companies?
   Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked in random order with the other questions in group “favorability_institutions_order”.
26. [fav_inst_rental_companies] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large companies that own rental homes and apartments?
   Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked in random order with the other questions in group “favorability_institutions_order”.
27. [fav_inst_large_banks] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large banks?
   Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked in random order with the other questions in group “favorability_institutions_order”.
28. [pres_2024_recall] Who did you vote for in the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, or did you not vote?
   Options: Donald Trump / Kamala Harris / Someone else / I did not vote / Don't know / No opinion
29. [age_band] What is your age?
   Options: 18 to 29 / 30 to 44 / 45 to 54 / 55 to 64 / 65 or older / Prefer not to answer
30. [gender] What is your gender?
   Options: Man / Woman / Nonbinary or another gender / Prefer not to answer
31. [hispanic] Are you Hispanic or Latino?
   Options: Yes / No / Prefer not to answer
32. [race] How would you describe your racial background?
   Options: White / Black or African American / Asian or Pacific Islander / Native American or Indigenous / Middle Eastern or North African / Other or multiracial / Prefer not to answer
33. [education] What is the highest level of school you have completed?
   Options: Less than high school / High school graduate / Vocational or trade school / Some college, no degree / Associate's degree / Bachelor's degree / Graduate or professional degree / Prefer not to answer
34. [housing_tenure] Do you own or rent your home?
   Options: Own / Rent / Live with family or in another arrangement / Prefer not to answer
35. [cost_pressure] Which one of these costs is hardest for your household to afford right now?
   Options: Housing / Health care / Groceries / Utilities / Transportation / Child care / Education / Another cost / None of these is hard to afford / Don't know / No opinion
   Answer options shown in random order.
36. [party_identity] Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?
   Options: Democrat / Republican / Independent / Another party / Don't know / No opinion
37. [party_strength_democrat] Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat?
   Options: Strong Democrat / Not very strong Democrat / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q36 “Democrat”.
38. [party_strength_republican] Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican?
   Options: Strong Republican / Not very strong Republican / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q36 “Republican”.
39. [party_lean] And as of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or neither?
   Options: The Democratic Party / The Republican Party / Neither / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q36 “Independent” or “Another party” or “Don't know / No opinion”.
40. [ideology_word] Which one of these words best describes your political views?
   Options: Conservative / Moderate / Liberal / Progressive / Socialist / Libertarian / None of these / Don't know / No opinion
   Answer options shown in random order.
41. [union_household] Are you, or is any member of your household, a member of a labor union?
   Options: Yes / No / Prefer not to answer
42. [income] Which of these best describes your household's total income in 2025, before taxes?
   Options: Under $25,000 / $25,000 to under $50,000 / $50,000 to under $100,000 / $100,000 to under $200,000 / $200,000 or more / Prefer not to answer
43. [pp_inflation_approach] Which of these do you think would do the most to bring down inflation?
   Options: The Federal Reserve raising interest rates to slow borrowing and spending / Governments starting businesses that sell alongside private companies, to increase supply / Tax breaks and subsidies for private companies to produce more / Cutting regulations so private companies can produce more / None of these / Don't know / No opinion
   Answer options shown in random order.
44. [pp_general] Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this?
   Options: Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q45 instead.
45. [pp_general_examples] Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. Two that exist today: the U.S. Postal Service, which delivers packages alongside private companies like UPS and FedEx, and the Tennessee Valley Authority, a federally owned company that sells electricity. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this?
   Options: Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q44 instead.
46. [pp_sectors_pick] In which of these areas, if any, would you support governments starting businesses like this? Pick all that apply.
   Options: Building and renting homes / Hospitals and clinics / Child care centers / Making prescription drugs / Processing food / Grocery stores / Refining gasoline / Electric utilities / Internet service / Colleges / None of these / Don't know / No opinion
   Answer options shown in random order.
47. [pp_effect_prices] If governments started businesses like this, do you think prices would be lower, about the same or higher than without them?
   Options: Lower / About the same / Higher / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion
48. [pp_effect_supply] If governments started businesses like this, do you think there would be more for sale, about the same or less than without them?
   Options: More / About the same / Less / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion
49. [pp_effect_quality] If governments started businesses like this, do you think quality would be better, about the same or worse than without them?
   Options: Better / About the same / Worse / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion
50. [pp_yardstick] Suppose a government-owned business made its costs public. How useful, if at all, would that be for showing whether private companies charge too much?
   Options: Very useful / Somewhat useful / Not very useful / Not at all useful / Don't know / No opinion
51. [pp_ownership_choice] If public money were used to start new businesses that sell goods or services, who should own and run them?
   Options: The government should own and run them / Private companies should own and run them / No preference / Public money shouldn't be spent on this / Don't know / No opinion
   Answer options shown in random order.
Closing message: Thank you. Those are all the questions.
Re-interview panel
Questionnaire: FL 2026 turnout follow-up — October 20–23 respondents, version 5 (frozen 2026-10-30)
Title: FL 2026 ballot and turnout follow-up — October 20–23 respondents
1. [q1] How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 general election in {place}?
   Options: Already voted / Extremely likely / Very likely / Somewhat likely / Somewhat unlikely / Very unlikely / Extremely unlikely / Don't know / No opinion
2. [senate_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. Senate?
   Options: Ashley Moody, Republican / Angie Nixon, Democrat / Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”.
3. [senate_vote_current] If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?
   Options: Ashley Moody, Republican / Angie Nixon, Democrat / Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Undecided
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”.
4. [senate_vote_current_lean] If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward?
   Options: Ashley Moody, Republican / Angie Nixon, Democrat / Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Still undecided
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Undecided”.
5. [governor_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for Governor?
   Options: Byron Donalds, Republican / David Jolly, Democrat / Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian / Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation / Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation / Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation / Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation / Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”.
6. [governor_vote_current] If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for?
   Options: Byron Donalds, Republican / David Jolly, Democrat / Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian / Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation / Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation / Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation / Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation / Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Undecided
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”.
7. [governor_vote_current_lean] If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward?
   Options: Byron Donalds, Republican / David Jolly, Democrat / Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian / Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation / Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation / Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation / Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation / Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation / Someone else / Still undecided
   Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q6 “Undecided”.
8. [vote_timing_oct23] When did you cast your ballot in the November 3, 2026 general election? If you voted by mail, please tell us when you mailed or returned your ballot.
   Options: On or before October 23 / October 24 or later / Don't know / No opinion
   Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”.
9. [senate_majority_leader_choice_20261030] If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, which of these people would you prefer to see as Senate Majority Leader?
   Options: Chuck Schumer / Bernie Sanders / Someone else / No opinion
   Answer options shown in random order.
10. [house_speaker_choice_20261030] If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, which of these people would you prefer to see as Speaker of the House?
   Options: Hakeem Jeffries / Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez / Someone else / No opinion
   Answer options shown in random order.
Closing message: Thank you. Those are all the questions.

Unweighted results

Raw answers, separate for each poll

Counts and shares before any weighting or likely-voter adjustment.

Oct 20–23 poll

Florida 2026 general election poll, October 20-23 (AFWH). Interviews 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-23; 4,823 respondents.

How these tables were built
  • UNWEIGHTED. Every count and percentage describes the interviewed respondents only; no weight is applied and nothing here is an estimate of the Florida electorate.
  • Base of each item: respondents whose latest answer is one of the questionnaire's listed options. Skipped items and recorded answers that are not a listed option are counted outside the base (skipped_n, unlisted_answer_n).
  • Crosstab cells are withheld (null) when the group has fewer than 30 respondents in the item's base, for privacy; the group's n is always shown. Percentages are of the group's base.
  • The routed ballot items (asked as *_vote_past of those who said they had already voted and *_vote_current of the rest) are reported as one item, *_vote, as the analysis reads them; source_keys lists the two questionnaire keys.
  • A respondent's latest answer to each item is used; an answer marked withdrawn is not counted.
  • Registered party: the voter-file party (R, D, NPA = no party affiliation, Minor = any other recorded party).
  • Region: six groups of congressional districts (services/crosstab_regions.py); no county is shown.
  • Voting status: the answer to the opening question (q1), 'Already voted' or any other answer.
  • Interview language: the survey_language the respondent's answers recorded.
  • Respondents with no reading on a banner are not shown as a group: Age band: 75; Race and ethnicity (voter file): 73; Race and ethnicity (self-identified): 198; Race (self-identified, as answered): 232; Hispanic origin (voter file): 73; Hispanic or Latino (self-identified): 159; Gender: 101; Region: 108; 2024 recalled vote: 107.
  • Not shown, because no respondent in this poll has a reading on it: Interview language (Interview language: this poll's answers recorded no survey_language).
  • Age band and gender are the respondent's own answers as the weighting run recorded them (provenance 'respondent'). Race and ethnicity (voter file) and Hispanic origin (voter file) are the voter-file record; Race and ethnicity (self-identified) is the run's classification of the respondent's own Hispanic and race answers; Race (self-identified, as answered) is the race item's answer.
  • 2024 recalled vote: the respondent's answer to pres_2024_recall.

q1 How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 general election in Florida? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Already voted2,02542%
Extremely likely2,49652%
Very likely1523%
Somewhat likely601%
Somewhat unlikely220%
Very unlikely150%
Extremely unlikely341%
Don't know / No opinion190%

senate_vote [senate_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. Senate? / [senate_vote_current] If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Ashley Moody, Republican1,95641%
Angie Nixon, Democrat2,48552%
Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation481%
Someone else421%
Did not vote in this race80%
Prefer not to answer832%
Undecided2014%
By group (unweighted shares of each group)
GroupnAshley Moody, RepublicanAngie Nixon, DemocratNeil J. Gillespie, No Party AffiliationSomeone elseDid not vote in this racePrefer not to answerUndecided
Registered party (voter file)
R1,90382%11%1%1%0%1%4%
D1,8344%91%0%0%0%2%2%
NPA89729%57%2%1%0%3%9%
Minor18935%49%3%4%0%3%7%
Age band
18-2923320%70%1%2%1%0%6%
30-4459227%63%2%2%0%1%6%
45-5466240%52%1%1%0%1%5%
55-641,15645%48%1%0%0%2%4%
65+2,10545%49%1%1%0%2%3%
Race and ethnicity (voter file)
White3,48444%48%1%1%0%1%4%
Black2658%83%1%1%0%4%4%
Hispanic81537%54%1%1%1%2%4%
Asian or Pacific Islander5129%63%0%2%0%2%4%
Other13536%52%1%0%0%2%10%
Race and ethnicity (self-identified)
White3,26543%50%1%1%0%1%4%
Black23010%84%1%1%0%2%2%
Hispanic93440%53%1%1%0%1%4%
Asian or Pacific Islander4933%63%0%2%0%2%0%
Other14737%48%1%3%1%2%9%
Race (self-identified, as answered)
White3,98343%50%1%1%0%1%4%
Black or African American24612%83%1%1%0%2%2%
Asian or Pacific Islander5237%60%0%2%0%2%0%
Native American or Indigenous3037%47%3%3%0%0%10%
Middle Eastern or North African19withheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheld
Other or multiracial26133%54%2%2%1%2%7%
Hispanic origin (voter file)
Hispanic81537%54%1%1%1%2%4%
Not Hispanic3,93541%51%1%1%0%2%4%
Hispanic or Latino (self-identified)
Hispanic93440%53%1%1%0%1%4%
Not Hispanic3,73041%52%1%1%0%1%4%
Gender
Men2,37942%50%1%1%0%1%3%
Women2,34339%53%1%1%0%2%5%
Region
North40547%48%0%0%0%1%4%
Central31638%51%1%1%0%2%7%
Tampa Bay1,84740%53%1%1%0%2%4%
Southwest15744%47%3%1%1%2%3%
Southeast1,34940%52%1%1%0%2%4%
Miami-Dade64139%53%1%1%0%2%4%
Voting status
Already voted2,02533%62%1%0%0%4%0%
Not yet voted2,79846%44%1%1%0%0%7%
2024 recalled vote
Trump2,05988%6%1%1%0%1%4%
Harris2,3343%92%1%0%0%1%2%
Someone else14720%59%4%7%0%3%7%
Did not vote17623%55%3%1%1%2%15%

senate_vote_current_lean If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? (n = 201)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Ashley Moody, Republican2713%
Angie Nixon, Democrat3517%
Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation73%
Someone else63%
Still undecided12663%

senate_vote_current_intensity Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate? (n = 2,564)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Definitely2,29890%
Probably24410%
Don't know / No opinion221%

governor_vote [governor_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for Governor? / [governor_vote_current] If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Byron Donalds, Republican1,88739%
David Jolly, Democrat2,57253%
Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian351%
Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation90%
Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation100%
Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation30%
Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation10%
Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation100%
Someone else531%
Did not vote in this race40%
Prefer not to answer591%
Undecided1804%
By group (unweighted shares of each group)
GroupnByron Donalds, RepublicanDavid Jolly, DemocratScott Eckhard Jewett, LibertarianCharles Burkett, No Party AffiliationFrank J. Russo, No Party AffiliationMoliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party AffiliationDean Ocean Abrams, No Party AffiliationJeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party AffiliationSomeone elseDid not vote in this racePrefer not to answerUndecided
Registered party (voter file)
R1,90380%13%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%3%
D1,8343%92%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%2%
NPA89728%59%1%0%0%0%0%1%1%0%2%7%
Minor18932%51%4%1%1%1%0%0%2%0%3%6%
Age band
18-2923316%71%3%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%0%7%
30-4459224%63%1%0%0%0%0%1%2%0%1%8%
45-5466239%54%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%4%
55-641,15644%50%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%3%
65+2,10543%51%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%2%
Race and ethnicity (voter file)
White3,48443%50%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%3%
Black2659%80%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%3%6%
Hispanic81536%56%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%1%4%
Asian or Pacific Islander5125%63%2%0%0%2%0%0%2%0%0%6%
Other13533%55%1%0%1%1%0%0%1%0%1%7%
Race and ethnicity (self-identified)
White3,26542%52%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%3%
Black23010%82%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%5%
Hispanic93439%54%1%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%1%3%
Asian or Pacific Islander4927%63%0%0%0%2%0%0%2%0%0%6%
Other14735%51%3%0%1%0%0%0%3%0%1%7%
Race (self-identified, as answered)
White3,98341%52%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%3%
Black or African American24612%81%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%5%
Asian or Pacific Islander5231%60%0%0%0%2%0%0%2%0%0%6%
Native American or Indigenous3030%50%3%0%3%0%0%0%7%0%0%7%
Middle Eastern or North African19withheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheld
Other or multiracial26133%56%1%0%0%0%0%1%3%0%1%4%
Hispanic origin (voter file)
Hispanic81536%56%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%1%4%
Not Hispanic3,93540%53%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%4%
Hispanic or Latino (self-identified)
Hispanic93439%54%1%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%1%3%
Not Hispanic3,73040%54%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%3%
Gender
Men2,37940%53%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%3%
Women2,34339%54%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%4%
Region
North40544%48%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%1%4%
Central31636%54%1%1%0%0%0%1%1%0%1%5%
Tampa Bay1,84737%55%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%3%
Southwest15744%48%1%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%2%4%
Southeast1,34939%54%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%4%
Miami-Dade64139%54%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%3%
Voting status
Already voted2,02531%65%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%3%0%
Not yet voted2,79845%45%1%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%0%6%
2024 recalled vote
Trump2,05986%7%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%3%
Harris2,3342%94%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%2%
Someone else14714%60%7%1%1%1%0%0%3%0%2%12%
Did not vote17622%57%2%1%0%1%0%1%3%1%2%10%

governor_vote_current_lean If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? (n = 180)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Byron Donalds, Republican158%
David Jolly, Democrat3318%
Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian42%
Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation11%
Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation32%
Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation32%
Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation11%
Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation11%
Someone else63%
Still undecided11363%

governor_vote_current_intensity Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate? (n = 2,575)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Definitely2,30890%
Probably24510%
Don't know / No opinion221%

generic_ballot_past In this year's general election for Congress, which party's candidate did you vote for in your district? (n = 586)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
The Democratic candidate37664%
The Republican candidate17630%
Someone else61%
Did not vote in this race71%
Prefer not to answer214%

generic_ballot If the 2026 general election for Congress were held today, which party's candidate would you be more likely to vote for in your district? (n = 951)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
The Democratic candidate40442%
The Republican candidate46749%
Someone else182%
Undecided627%

election_attention How much have you thought about this election? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
A great deal4,01083%
Some54011%
A little1182%
Not at all581%
Don't know / No opinion251%
Prefer not to answer721%

enthusiasm When it comes to the November election, would you say you are very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic, not very enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? (n = 2,798)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Very enthusiastic1,86567%
Somewhat enthusiastic54519%
Not very enthusiastic1917%
Not at all enthusiastic1395%
Don't know / No opinion582%

turnout_intention_0_9 On a scale from 0 to 9, where 0 means you definitely will not vote and 9 means you definitely will vote, how likely are you to vote in this election? (n = 2,798)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
0301%
1201%
2100%
3161%
4261%
5221%
6161%
7592%
81014%
92,48389%
Don't know / No opinion70%
Prefer not to answer80%

jeffries_leader_approval Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hakeem Jeffries is handling his job as House Democratic Leader? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Strongly approve71415%
Somewhat approve1,15124%
Somewhat disapprove59012%
Strongly disapprove1,97641%
Don't know / No opinion3928%

schumer_leader_approval Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Strongly approve48110%
Somewhat approve1,10823%
Somewhat disapprove74816%
Strongly disapprove2,18345%
Don't know / No opinion3036%

trump_job_approval Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Strongly approve1,28727%
Somewhat approve54011%
Somewhat disapprove1834%
Strongly disapprove2,73557%
Don't know / No opinion782%

democrats_congress_approval Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Strongly approve65514%
Somewhat approve1,35928%
Somewhat disapprove68514%
Strongly disapprove1,93740%
Don't know / No opinion1874%

republicans_congress_approval Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Strongly approve82117%
Somewhat approve92819%
Somewhat disapprove3698%
Strongly disapprove2,59554%
Don't know / No opinion1102%

dem_course Should Democrats in Congress stay on their current course, or change direction? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Stay on their current course96520%
Change direction3,25067%
Don't know / No opinion60813%

house_democratic_leadership If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Jeffries should become Speaker1,10723%
Democrats should choose someone else2,15745%
It doesn't matter to me85218%
Don't know / No opinion70715%

senate_democratic_leadership If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, should Chuck Schumer become Majority Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Schumer should become Majority Leader62613%
Democrats should choose someone else3,05563%
It doesn't matter to me65113%
Don't know / No opinion49110%

fav_inst_health_insurers Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of health insurance companies? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Strongly favorable2325%
Somewhat favorable73915%
Somewhat unfavorable1,23526%
Strongly unfavorable2,36949%
Not familiar enough to say1052%
Don't know / No opinion1433%

fav_inst_drug_companies Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of drug companies? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Strongly favorable1643%
Somewhat favorable69714%
Somewhat unfavorable1,34528%
Strongly unfavorable2,22846%
Not familiar enough to say1934%
Don't know / No opinion1964%

fav_inst_electric_utilities Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of electric utility companies? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Strongly favorable3267%
Somewhat favorable1,25426%
Somewhat unfavorable1,44830%
Strongly unfavorable1,23026%
Not familiar enough to say2896%
Don't know / No opinion2766%

fav_inst_rental_companies Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large companies that own rental homes and apartments? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Strongly favorable1313%
Somewhat favorable4239%
Somewhat unfavorable1,21025%
Strongly unfavorable2,42450%
Not familiar enough to say3517%
Don't know / No opinion2846%

fav_inst_large_banks Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large banks? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Strongly favorable2595%
Somewhat favorable1,15024%
Somewhat unfavorable1,42830%
Strongly unfavorable1,31627%
Not familiar enough to say3207%
Don't know / No opinion3507%

pres_2024_recall Who did you vote for in the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, or did you not vote? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Donald Trump2,05943%
Kamala Harris2,33448%
Someone else1473%
I did not vote1764%
Don't know / No opinion1072%

age_band What is your age? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
18 to 292335%
30 to 4459212%
45 to 5466214%
55 to 641,15624%
65 or older2,10544%
Prefer not to answer752%

gender What is your gender? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Man2,37949%
Woman2,34349%
Nonbinary or another gender261%
Prefer not to answer752%

hispanic Are you Hispanic or Latino? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Yes93419%
No3,73077%
Prefer not to answer1593%

race How would you describe your racial background? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
White3,98383%
Black or African American2465%
Asian or Pacific Islander521%
Native American or Indigenous301%
Middle Eastern or North African190%
Other or multiracial2615%
Prefer not to answer2325%

education What is the highest level of school you have completed? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Less than high school391%
High school graduate3838%
Vocational or trade school1894%
Some college, no degree79516%
Associate's degree47610%
Bachelor's degree1,37328%
Graduate or professional degree1,46730%
Prefer not to answer1012%

housing_tenure Do you own or rent your home? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Own3,52773%
Rent89319%
Live with family or in another arrangement2746%
Prefer not to answer1293%

cost_pressure Which one of these costs is hardest for your household to afford right now? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Housing92719%
Health care95120%
Groceries1,16224%
Utilities3217%
Transportation2345%
Child care521%
Education952%
Another cost2245%
None of these is hard to afford73615%
Don't know / No opinion1213%

party_identity Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Democrat1,59633%
Republican1,68035%
Independent1,34628%
Another party872%
Don't know / No opinion1142%

party_strength_democrat Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat? (n = 1,596)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Strong Democrat1,25178%
Not very strong Democrat29218%
Don't know / No opinion533%

party_strength_republican Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican? (n = 1,680)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Strong Republican1,35080%
Not very strong Republican29418%
Don't know / No opinion362%

party_lean And as of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or neither? (n = 1,547)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
The Democratic Party75849%
The Republican Party37124%
Neither36123%
Don't know / No opinion574%

ideology_word Which one of these words best describes your political views? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Conservative1,51731%
Moderate1,32027%
Liberal53311%
Progressive60613%
Socialist2054%
Libertarian2094%
None of these2375%
Don't know / No opinion1964%

union_household Are you, or is any member of your household, a member of a labor union? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Yes4379%
No4,27389%
Prefer not to answer1132%

income Which of these best describes your household's total income in 2025, before taxes? (n = 4,823)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Under $25,0002595%
$25,000 to under $50,00054411%
$50,000 to under $100,0001,17924%
$100,000 to under $200,0001,31627%
$200,000 or more84217%
Prefer not to answer68314%

pp_inflation_approach Which of these do you think would do the most to bring down inflation? (n = 4,770)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
The Federal Reserve raising interest rates to slow borrowing and spending59212%
Governments starting businesses that sell alongside private companies, to increase supply2395%
Tax breaks and subsidies for private companies to produce more49510%
Cutting regulations so private companies can produce more89419%
None of these1,80438%
Don't know / No opinion74616%

pp_general Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this? (n = 2,395)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Strongly support1195%
Somewhat support36115%
Somewhat oppose44419%
Strongly oppose98641%
Don't know / No opinion48520%

pp_general_examples Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. Two that exist today: the U.S. Postal Service, which delivers packages alongside private companies like UPS and FedEx, and the Tennessee Valley Authority, a federally owned company that sells electricity. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this? (n = 2,324)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Strongly support22210%
Somewhat support58825%
Somewhat oppose42718%
Strongly oppose71031%
Don't know / No opinion37716%

pp_sectors_pick In which of these areas, if any, would you support governments starting businesses like this? Pick all that apply. (n = 4,640)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Building and renting homes82218%
Hospitals and clinics1,32228%
Child care centers1,08823%
Making prescription drugs1,09224%
Processing food4109%
Grocery stores67715%
Refining gasoline83718%
Electric utilities1,16425%
Internet service67214%
Colleges85118%
None of these1,68636%
Don't know / No opinion70815%

pp_effect_prices If governments started businesses like this, do you think prices would be lower, about the same or higher than without them? (n = 4,620)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Lower1,25827%
About the same61713%
Higher1,20826%
It would depend on the industry87219%
Don't know / No opinion66514%

pp_effect_supply If governments started businesses like this, do you think there would be more for sale, about the same or less than without them? (n = 4,584)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
More70615%
About the same1,02222%
Less84919%
It would depend on the industry1,07423%
Don't know / No opinion93320%

pp_effect_quality If governments started businesses like this, do you think quality would be better, about the same or worse than without them? (n = 4,560)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Better55912%
About the same1,04923%
Worse1,50433%
It would depend on the industry73516%
Don't know / No opinion71316%

pp_yardstick Suppose a government-owned business made its costs public. How useful, if at all, would that be for showing whether private companies charge too much? (n = 4,518)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Very useful1,36230%
Somewhat useful1,23127%
Not very useful3568%
Not at all useful68615%
Don't know / No opinion88320%

pp_ownership_choice If public money were used to start new businesses that sell goods or services, who should own and run them? (n = 4,465)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
The government should own and run them81018%
Private companies should own and run them65815%
No preference2706%
Public money shouldn't be spent on this1,92743%
Don't know / No opinion80018%

house_vote:FL [house_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives? / [house_vote_current] If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for? (FL-13 2026 general) (n = 873)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Anna Paulina Luna, Republican34039%
Leela Gray, Democrat47655%
Tony D'Arrigo, No Party Affiliation101%
Someone else81%
Did not vote in this race10%
Prefer not to answer81%
Undecided303%

house_vote:FL [house_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives? / [house_vote_current] If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for? (FL-14 2026 general) (n = 704)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Mike Beltran, Republican24435%
Kathy Castor, Democrat40357%
Brian Lambert, Libertarian203%
Someone else71%
Did not vote in this race10%
Prefer not to answer81%
Undecided213%

house_vote:FL [house_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives? / [house_vote_current] If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for? (FL-22 2026 general) (n = 548)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Casey Askar, Republican21239%
Pia Dandiya, Democrat28151%
Someone else122%
Did not vote in this race20%
Prefer not to answer112%
Undecided305%

house_vote:FL [house_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives? / [house_vote_current] If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for? (FL-27 2026 general) (n = 523)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Maria Elvira Salazar, Republican20840%
Eliott Rodriguez, Democrat28955%
Someone else61%
Did not vote in this race31%
Prefer not to answer41%
Undecided132%

house_vote:FL [house_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives? / [house_vote_current] If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for? (FL-25 2026 general) (n = 638)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Scott Singer, Republican21834%
Jared Moskowitz, Democrat33252%
Peter Jassenoff, Libertarian173%
Someone else132%
Did not vote in this race41%
Prefer not to answer112%
Undecided437%

house_vote_current_lean:FL If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? (FL-13 2026 general) (n = 30)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Anna Paulina Luna, Republican27%
Leela Gray, Democrat517%
Tony D'Arrigo, No Party Affiliation27%
Someone else27%
Still undecided1963%

house_vote_current_lean:FL If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? (FL-14 2026 general) (n = 21)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Mike Beltran, Republican210%
Kathy Castor, Democrat210%
Brian Lambert, Libertarian210%
Someone else00%
Still undecided1571%

house_vote_current_lean:FL If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? (FL-22 2026 general) (n = 30)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Casey Askar, Republican310%
Pia Dandiya, Democrat413%
Someone else00%
Still undecided2377%

house_vote_current_lean:FL If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? (FL-27 2026 general) (n = 13)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Maria Elvira Salazar, Republican323%
Eliott Rodriguez, Democrat431%
Someone else00%
Still undecided646%

house_vote_current_lean:FL If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? (FL-25 2026 general) (n = 43)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Scott Singer, Republican49%
Jared Moskowitz, Democrat614%
Peter Jassenoff, Libertarian12%
Someone else00%
Still undecided3274%

house_vote_current_intensity Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate? (n = 1,676)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Definitely1,51290%
Probably1469%
Don't know / No opinion181%

Oct 30–31 poll

Florida 2026 final-week poll, October 30-31 (AFWH). Interviews 2026-10-30 to 2026-10-31; 2,898 respondents.

How these tables were built
  • UNWEIGHTED. Every count and percentage describes the interviewed respondents only; no weight is applied and nothing here is an estimate of the Florida electorate.
  • Base of each item: respondents whose latest answer is one of the questionnaire's listed options. Skipped items and recorded answers that are not a listed option are counted outside the base (skipped_n, unlisted_answer_n).
  • Crosstab cells are withheld (null) when the group has fewer than 30 respondents in the item's base, for privacy; the group's n is always shown. Percentages are of the group's base.
  • The routed ballot items (asked as *_vote_past of those who said they had already voted and *_vote_current of the rest) are reported as one item, *_vote, as the analysis reads them; source_keys lists the two questionnaire keys.
  • A respondent's latest answer to each item is used; an answer marked withdrawn is not counted.
  • Registered party: the voter-file party (R, D, NPA = no party affiliation, Minor = any other recorded party).
  • Region: six groups of congressional districts (services/crosstab_regions.py); no county is shown.
  • Voting status: the answer to the opening question (q1), 'Already voted' or any other answer.
  • Interview language: the survey_language the respondent's answers recorded.
  • Respondents with no reading on a banner are not shown as a group: Age band: 61; Race and ethnicity (voter file): 59; Race and ethnicity (self-identified): 157; Race (self-identified, as answered): 200; Hispanic origin (voter file): 59; Hispanic or Latino (self-identified): 114; Gender: 85; Region: 233; 2024 recalled vote: 77; Interview language: 419.
  • Age band and gender are the respondent's own answers as the weighting run recorded them (provenance 'respondent'). Race and ethnicity (voter file) and Hispanic origin (voter file) are the voter-file record; Race and ethnicity (self-identified) is the run's classification of the respondent's own Hispanic and race answers; Race (self-identified, as answered) is the race item's answer.
  • 2024 recalled vote: the respondent's answer to pres_2024_recall.

q1 How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 general election in Florida? (n = 2,898)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Already voted2,11973%
Extremely likely64922%
Very likely572%
Somewhat likely241%
Somewhat unlikely110%
Very unlikely70%
Extremely unlikely171%
Don't know / No opinion140%

senate_vote [senate_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. Senate? / [senate_vote_current] If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for? (n = 2,898)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Ashley Moody, Republican1,23443%
Angie Nixon, Democrat1,42449%
Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation291%
Someone else241%
Did not vote in this race181%
Prefer not to answer953%
Undecided743%
By group (unweighted shares of each group)
GroupnAshley Moody, RepublicanAngie Nixon, DemocratNeil J. Gillespie, No Party AffiliationSomeone elseDid not vote in this racePrefer not to answerUndecided
Registered party (voter file)
R1,24580%12%1%1%1%2%2%
D9944%92%0%0%0%3%1%
NPA52729%54%1%2%1%6%7%
Minor13231%55%4%1%0%4%6%
Age band
18-2920716%76%2%2%0%0%2%
30-4437919%70%3%2%1%2%3%
45-5443939%51%1%1%1%4%3%
55-6467451%42%1%1%0%2%3%
65+1,13852%42%0%0%1%3%2%
Race and ethnicity (voter file)
White2,06747%46%1%1%1%2%2%
Black20310%85%0%0%0%3%1%
Hispanic42440%46%0%1%1%8%5%
Asian or Pacific Islander4337%49%2%0%0%5%7%
Other10238%51%1%2%0%3%5%
Race and ethnicity (self-identified)
White1,93647%47%1%1%1%2%2%
Black17710%86%0%0%0%3%1%
Hispanic49841%46%1%1%1%6%4%
Asian or Pacific Islander4238%57%2%0%0%0%2%
Other8843%51%1%0%0%2%2%
Race (self-identified, as answered)
White2,26546%46%1%1%1%2%2%
Black or African American19311%84%1%0%0%3%1%
Asian or Pacific Islander4538%56%2%0%0%2%2%
Native American or Indigenous3554%34%3%0%0%3%6%
Middle Eastern or North African11withheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheld
Other or multiracial14933%60%0%2%1%3%1%
Hispanic origin (voter file)
Hispanic42440%46%0%1%1%8%5%
Not Hispanic2,41543%49%1%1%1%3%2%
Hispanic or Latino (self-identified)
Hispanic49841%46%1%1%1%6%4%
Not Hispanic2,28643%51%1%1%0%2%2%
Gender
Men1,44945%47%1%1%1%3%2%
Women1,36441%51%1%1%1%3%3%
Region
North62346%47%2%1%0%2%2%
Central56640%53%1%0%1%4%3%
Tampa Bay59640%52%1%1%1%4%2%
Southwest31553%40%0%2%1%1%3%
Southeast31838%54%1%1%0%3%3%
Miami-Dade24740%45%0%1%2%8%4%
Voting status
Already voted2,11938%55%1%0%1%4%0%
Not yet voted77954%32%2%3%0%0%9%
2024 recalled vote
Trump1,31888%5%1%1%1%2%3%
Harris1,2962%94%1%0%1%2%1%
Someone else9021%48%4%7%2%9%9%
Did not vote11720%66%1%0%2%2%10%
Interview language
English2,20443%50%1%1%0%3%2%
Spanish27544%38%1%1%1%9%7%

senate_vote_current_lean If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? (n = 74)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Ashley Moody, Republican1014%
Angie Nixon, Democrat912%
Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation79%
Someone else34%
Still undecided4561%

senate_vote_current_intensity Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate? (n = 685)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Definitely60488%
Probably6610%
Don't know / No opinion152%

governor_vote [governor_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for Governor? / [governor_vote_current] If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for? (n = 2,898)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Byron Donalds, Republican1,21942%
David Jolly, Democrat1,45650%
Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian341%
Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation70%
Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation40%
Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation30%
Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation20%
Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation20%
Someone else351%
Did not vote in this race90%
Prefer not to answer672%
Undecided602%
By group (unweighted shares of each group)
GroupnByron Donalds, RepublicanDavid Jolly, DemocratScott Eckhard Jewett, LibertarianCharles Burkett, No Party AffiliationFrank J. Russo, No Party AffiliationMoliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party AffiliationDean Ocean Abrams, No Party AffiliationJeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party AffiliationSomeone elseDid not vote in this racePrefer not to answerUndecided
Registered party (voter file)
R1,24579%13%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%1%2%2%
D9943%93%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%1%
NPA52730%55%2%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%4%5%
Minor13230%55%5%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%3%5%
Age band
18-2920715%76%2%0%0%0%0%0%3%0%0%2%
30-4437919%71%2%0%0%0%0%0%3%0%2%2%
45-5443939%52%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%3%2%
55-6467450%43%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%2%2%
65+1,13851%43%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%2%1%
Race and ethnicity (voter file)
White2,06746%47%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%2%2%
Black20312%82%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%4%1%
Hispanic42442%46%0%1%0%0%0%0%2%0%5%4%
Asian or Pacific Islander4337%49%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%5%5%
Other10237%53%1%0%0%1%0%0%3%0%2%3%
Race and ethnicity (self-identified)
White1,93645%49%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%2%
Black17713%82%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%3%1%
Hispanic49843%47%1%1%0%0%0%0%2%0%3%3%
Asian or Pacific Islander4238%55%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%2%
Other8841%51%3%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%2%
Race (self-identified, as answered)
White2,26546%48%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%2%
Black or African American19314%81%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%4%1%
Asian or Pacific Islander4540%53%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%2%
Native American or Indigenous3554%31%6%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%3%6%
Middle Eastern or North African11withheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheld
Other or multiracial14932%60%1%0%0%0%0%0%3%0%1%2%
Hispanic origin (voter file)
Hispanic42442%46%0%1%0%0%0%0%2%0%5%4%
Not Hispanic2,41542%51%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%2%2%
Hispanic or Latino (self-identified)
Hispanic49843%47%1%1%0%0%0%0%2%0%3%3%
Not Hispanic2,28642%52%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%1%
Gender
Men1,44945%48%2%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%2%1%
Women1,36441%52%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%2%2%
Region
North62346%46%2%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%3%
Central56639%53%2%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%3%2%
Tampa Bay59639%54%1%0%0%0%0%0%2%1%3%1%
Southwest31551%43%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%0%1%2%
Southeast31837%56%0%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%3%2%
Miami-Dade24740%48%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%6%4%
Voting status
Already voted2,11938%57%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%3%0%
Not yet voted77953%32%2%1%0%0%0%0%3%0%0%8%
2024 recalled vote
Trump1,31887%6%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%2%
Harris1,2962%96%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%1%
Someone else9018%48%10%0%1%2%0%0%10%2%3%6%
Did not vote11722%62%2%2%0%0%0%1%3%1%3%5%
Interview language
English2,20442%51%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%2%2%
Spanish27546%40%0%1%0%0%0%0%2%0%5%5%

governor_vote_current_lean If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? (n = 60)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Byron Donalds, Republican813%
David Jolly, Democrat610%
Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian23%
Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation12%
Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation12%
Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation00%
Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation00%
Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation00%
Someone else23%
Still undecided4067%

governor_vote_current_intensity Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate? (n = 694)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Definitely62290%
Probably578%
Don't know / No opinion152%

pres_2024_recall Who did you vote for in the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, or did you not vote? (n = 2,898)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Donald Trump1,31845%
Kamala Harris1,29645%
Someone else903%
I did not vote1174%
Don't know / No opinion773%

election_attention How much have you thought about this election? (n = 2,898)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
A great deal2,42184%
Some2659%
A little863%
Not at all572%
Don't know / No opinion120%
Prefer not to answer572%

enthusiasm When it comes to the November election, would you say you are very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic, not very enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? (n = 779)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Very enthusiastic49363%
Somewhat enthusiastic14218%
Not very enthusiastic587%
Not at all enthusiastic719%
Don't know / No opinion152%

turnout_intention_0_9 On a scale from 0 to 9, where 0 means you definitely will not vote and 9 means you definitely will vote, how likely are you to vote in this election? (n = 779)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
0152%
151%
261%
330%
4132%
5122%
651%
7162%
8395%
965584%
Don't know / No opinion20%
Prefer not to answer81%

vote_timing_oct23 When did you cast your ballot in the November 3, 2026 general election? If you voted by mail, please tell us when you mailed or returned your ballot. (n = 2,119)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
On or before October 2387141%
October 24 or later1,02849%
Don't know / No opinion22010%

vote_method_cast_20261030 How did you cast your ballot in the November 3, 2026 general election? (n = 2,119)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
In person at an early voting location1,29861%
By mail51924%
By returning a mail ballot to a drop box or election office22611%
In person on Election Day372%
Another way121%
Don't know / Prefer not to answer271%

vote_method_planned_20261030 How do you currently plan to cast your ballot in the November 3, 2026 general election? (n = 779)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
In person at an early voting location24331%
In person on Election Day45959%
By mail132%
By returning a mail ballot to a drop box or election office162%
Another way20%
Not sure yet304%
I do not plan to vote162%

vote_when_planned_20261030 When do you currently plan to cast or return your ballot? If voting by mail, please tell us when you plan to mail or return it. (n = 304)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Before Election Day, November 319263%
On Election Day, November 37123%
After Election Day, November 310%
Not sure yet3311%
I do not plan to vote72%

voting_feeling_recalled_20261030 Thinking back to when you cast your ballot, how did you feel about voting in this election? (n = 2,119)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Very enthusiastic1,43368%
Somewhat enthusiastic39519%
Not very enthusiastic1387%
Not at all enthusiastic663%
Don't know / No opinion874%

age_band What is your age? (n = 2,898)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
18 to 292077%
30 to 4437913%
45 to 5443915%
55 to 6467423%
65 or older1,13839%
Prefer not to answer612%

gender What is your gender? (n = 2,898)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Man1,44950%
Woman1,36447%
Nonbinary or another gender191%
Prefer not to answer662%

hispanic Are you Hispanic or Latino? (n = 2,898)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Yes49817%
No2,28679%
Prefer not to answer1144%

race How would you describe your racial background? (n = 2,898)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
White2,26578%
Black or African American1937%
Asian or Pacific Islander452%
Native American or Indigenous351%
Middle Eastern or North African110%
Other or multiracial1495%
Prefer not to answer2007%

education What is the highest level of school you have completed? (n = 2,898)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Less than high school311%
High school graduate2749%
Vocational or trade school1355%
Some college, no degree54319%
Associate's degree31511%
Bachelor's degree81228%
Graduate or professional degree70224%
Prefer not to answer863%

party_identity Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party? (n = 2,898)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Democrat90631%
Republican1,13739%
Independent69724%
Another party612%
Don't know / No opinion973%

party_strength_democrat Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat? (n = 906)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Strong Democrat71479%
Not very strong Democrat14116%
Don't know / No opinion516%

party_strength_republican Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican? (n = 1,137)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Strong Republican94583%
Not very strong Republican15614%
Don't know / No opinion363%

party_lean And as of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or neither? (n = 855)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
The Democratic Party37244%
The Republican Party20824%
Neither22226%
Don't know / No opinion536%

senate_majority_leader_choice_20261030 If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, which of these people would you prefer to see as Senate Majority Leader? (n = 2,898)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Chuck Schumer1696%
Bernie Sanders67123%
Someone else1,46951%
No opinion58920%

house_speaker_choice_20261030 If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, which of these people would you prefer to see as Speaker of the House? (n = 2,898)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Hakeem Jeffries45916%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez63122%
Someone else1,24943%
No opinion55919%

Re-interview panel

Florida 2026 re-interview panel of October 20-23 respondents (AFWH). Interviews 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-01; 540 respondents.

How these tables were built
  • UNWEIGHTED. Every count and percentage describes the interviewed respondents only; no weight is applied and nothing here is an estimate of the Florida electorate.
  • Base of each item: respondents whose latest answer is one of the questionnaire's listed options. Skipped items and recorded answers that are not a listed option are counted outside the base (skipped_n, unlisted_answer_n).
  • Crosstab cells are withheld (null) when the group has fewer than 30 respondents in the item's base, for privacy; the group's n is always shown. Percentages are of the group's base.
  • The routed ballot items (asked as *_vote_past of those who said they had already voted and *_vote_current of the rest) are reported as one item, *_vote, as the analysis reads them; source_keys lists the two questionnaire keys.
  • A respondent's latest answer to each item is used; an answer marked withdrawn is not counted.
  • Registered party: the voter-file party (R, D, NPA = no party affiliation, Minor = any other recorded party).
  • Region: six groups of congressional districts (services/crosstab_regions.py); no county is shown.
  • Voting status: the answer to the opening question (q1), 'Already voted' or any other answer.
  • Interview language: the survey_language the respondent's answers recorded.
  • The panel is a follow-up of October 20-23 respondents. Its registered party, age band and gender are the voter-file record of the respondent's sample unit (the follow-up did not ask them). Region and race banners are not shown for the panel: its groups are too small.
  • The panel has no weighting run. Its figures describe the 540 respondents who completed the follow-up web survey of October 20-23 respondents, and nothing else.

q1 How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 general election in Florida? (n = 540)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Already voted39172%
Extremely likely13826%
Very likely51%
Somewhat likely10%
Somewhat unlikely00%
Very unlikely31%
Extremely unlikely20%
Don't know / No opinion00%

senate_vote [senate_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. Senate? / [senate_vote_current] If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for? (n = 540)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Ashley Moody, Republican22141%
Angie Nixon, Democrat29955%
Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation51%
Someone else31%
Did not vote in this race00%
Prefer not to answer61%
Undecided61%
By group (unweighted shares of each group)
GroupnAshley Moody, RepublicanAngie Nixon, DemocratNeil J. Gillespie, No Party AffiliationSomeone elseDid not vote in this racePrefer not to answerUndecided
Registered party (voter file)
R22481%16%1%0%0%1%1%
D1966%91%1%1%0%1%1%
NPA9620%75%0%0%0%2%3%
Minor24withheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheld
Age band
18-293135%61%3%0%0%0%0%
30-447516%76%1%3%0%0%4%
45-547536%61%0%0%0%1%1%
55-6414943%55%1%1%0%0%0%
65+21051%45%0%0%0%2%1%
Gender
Men29437%57%1%1%0%1%1%
Women24645%53%0%0%0%1%1%
Voting status
Already voted39137%61%1%0%0%2%0%
Not yet voted14952%40%2%2%0%0%4%

senate_vote_current_lean If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? (n = 6)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Ashley Moody, Republican117%
Angie Nixon, Democrat233%
Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation00%
Someone else00%
Still undecided350%

governor_vote [governor_vote_past] Who did you vote for in this year's general election for Governor? / [governor_vote_current] If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for? (n = 540)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Byron Donalds, Republican20438%
David Jolly, Democrat31057%
Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian81%
Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation10%
Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation00%
Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation10%
Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation00%
Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation20%
Someone else41%
Did not vote in this race10%
Prefer not to answer41%
Undecided51%
By group (unweighted shares of each group)
GroupnByron Donalds, RepublicanDavid Jolly, DemocratScott Eckhard Jewett, LibertarianCharles Burkett, No Party AffiliationFrank J. Russo, No Party AffiliationMoliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party AffiliationDean Ocean Abrams, No Party AffiliationJeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party AffiliationSomeone elseDid not vote in this racePrefer not to answerUndecided
Registered party (voter file)
R22477%20%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%
D1965%93%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%1%1%1%
NPA9618%72%2%1%0%0%0%1%1%0%2%3%
Minor24withheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheldwithheld
Age band
18-293126%71%0%0%0%3%0%0%0%0%0%0%
30-447515%77%1%1%0%0%0%1%1%0%0%3%
45-547532%63%4%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%
55-6414940%58%1%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%
65+21049%46%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%1%
Gender
Men29434%60%2%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%1%1%
Women24642%54%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%
Voting status
Already voted39134%63%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%0%
Not yet voted14948%43%3%0%0%1%0%1%2%0%0%3%

governor_vote_current_lean If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? (n = 5)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Byron Donalds, Republican00%
David Jolly, Democrat360%
Scott Eckhard Jewett, Libertarian00%
Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation00%
Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation00%
Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation00%
Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation00%
Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation00%
Someone else00%
Still undecided240%

vote_timing_oct23 When did you cast your ballot in the November 3, 2026 general election? If you voted by mail, please tell us when you mailed or returned your ballot. (n = 391)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
On or before October 239023%
October 24 or later27971%
Don't know / No opinion226%

senate_majority_leader_choice_20261030 If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, which of these people would you prefer to see as Senate Majority Leader? (n = 540)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Chuck Schumer458%
Bernie Sanders13024%
Someone else28553%
No opinion8015%

house_speaker_choice_20261030 If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, which of these people would you prefer to see as Speaker of the House? (n = 540)

AnswerRespondentsUnweighted share
Hakeem Jeffries9317%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez11822%
Someone else25547%
No opinion7414%

The voter file

Who voted in 2018, 2022 and 2024, and who's voting in 2026

Read this first. These are today's file only (the 2026-06-30 extract). Anyone who voted in 2018, 2022 or 2024 and has since been removed (died, moved out of state, list maintenance) is missing, so the older the election the larger the gap; party, address/region and race are as recorded now, not as they were then. Age is computed at the election date. Coverage against certified ballots is given per election; the missing ballots are not distributed evenly (removals skew older and toward movers), so shares are those of surviving voters, not of the electorate as it was.

  • Party is the party on today's file, not the party at the time of the election. Minor parties are every recorded party other than Republican, Democrat and no party.
  • Region is one of six regions, from the voter's current address placed on the 2026 enacted congressional map; it is not where the person lived or voted at the time. “Not resolved” means the address didn't place in a district.
  • Race and gender are as recorded on the file; age is computed on each election's date.
  • 2026 registrants: voters_p_fl, today's file (2026-06-30 extract): registrations after that date are missing.
  • 2026 early in person: 2,836,602 accepted ballots from the state's early-vote file, 98.46% of the state's aggregate early count at the same cutoff. Florida mail ballots are held only as county-by-party totals, with no person-level file, so mail ballots appear only in the party table below.

Coverage of each election

ElectionVoters on today's fileCertified ballots castCoverage
2018-11-066,965,5878,305,92983.9%
2022-11-087,295,4287,796,91693.6%
2024-11-0510,741,70011,004,20997.6%

Party (as registered today)

GroupVoted 2018Voted 2022Voted 2024Active registrants 20262026 early in person (through Oct 30)
Republican42.2%47.1%43.3%41.5%43.9%
Democrat36.2%31.7%31.0%30.1%34.5%
No party19.4%19.0%22.8%24.7%19.1%
Minor parties2.2%2.3%2.9%3.7%2.6%

Age at the election

GroupVoted 2018Voted 2022Voted 2024Active registrants 20262026 early in person (through Oct 30)
18-2911.5%8.0%12.7%14.6%7.9%
30-4419.6%16.9%20.2%20.9%13.6%
45-5418.0%15.5%15.0%14.0%13.3%
55-6422.0%21.9%18.9%17.1%22.0%
65+28.1%37.0%32.5%32.8%42.2%
Unknown0.8%0.8%0.7%0.6%0.9%
under_180.0%0.0%0.0%——

Race (as recorded today)

GroupVoted 2018Voted 2022Voted 2024Active registrants 20262026 early in person (through Oct 30)
White65.9%70.5%64.5%61.7%62.4%
Hispanic14.6%13.6%17.2%18.2%16.4%
Black14.0%10.3%11.5%12.4%14.8%
Asian1.8%1.8%2.1%2.4%2.0%
American Indian or Alaska Native0.3%0.3%0.3%0.3%0.2%
Multiracial0.4%0.3%0.4%0.4%0.3%
Other1.6%1.6%1.9%2.0%1.8%
Unknown1.4%1.7%2.2%2.6%2.1%

Gender

GroupVoted 2018Voted 2022Voted 2024Active registrants 20262026 early in person (through Oct 30)
Female55.0%53.2%53.8%52.9%52.9%
Male43.7%45.3%44.4%45.0%45.4%
Unknown1.3%1.5%1.8%2.1%1.7%
Not recorded0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Region (from today's address)

GroupVoted 2018Voted 2022Voted 2024Active registrants 20262026 early in person (through Oct 30)
North22.2%22.4%21.9%22.1%23.9%
Tampa Bay20.7%21.4%20.7%20.4%17.3%
Central17.5%17.3%17.3%17.7%18.7%
Southwest7.2%7.8%7.6%7.5%7.2%
Southeast17.0%16.4%16.5%16.2%16.5%
Miami-Dade11.1%10.4%11.3%11.0%11.2%
Not resolved4.3%4.4%4.7%5.1%5.2%

How they voted

GroupVoted 2018Voted 2022Voted 2024
Early in person34.0%30.3%49.2%
Mail29.0%34.2%26.9%
Election Day37.0%35.5%23.9%

2026 ballots banked, by party

PartyVoted earlyVoted by mailTotal bankedShare of bankedMail ballots out, not returned
Republican1,430,249668,4242,098,67340.7%182,012
Democrat1,127,932815,3961,943,32837.7%217,956
No party613,508372,102985,61019.1%133,686
Minor parties85,10846,818131,9262.6%16,452

Florida Division of Elections vote-by-mail and early-vote statistics as of Nov 1, 8:09 AM ET, Nov 1; party is the voter's party at the time of the report.

The same tables as CSV

L2

What we used from L2

Phone numbers, in both samples. L2 cell-phone appends supplied numbers for part of each sample. Among the people texted for the Oct 30–31 poll, 119,176 had only an L2 phone, 31 had both an L2 and a voter-file phone, and 172,996 had only a voter-file phone (L2 orders 132640, 132877, 133125). For Oct 20–23: 45,091 L2 only, 33,830 both, 501,167 voter file only (orders 132640, 132877). We haven't computed completes by phone source.

Turnout references. We hold L2's aggregate turnout references for Florida and the five districts as benchmarks. We don't republish them: L2's data is licensed. No record shows them used as weighting targets in either poll; the targets come from the projected electorate and the turnout model described above.

Reproducing this. Analysts with L2 access can pull the same files: Florida cell-phone appends and L2's Florida turnout data by age, congressional district, county, gender, party and modeled race.

Combined estimate (experimental)

Both polls together

Experimental. This is not our estimate. The published estimates are each poll on its own, above and in the release packages. This pools both fresh samples into one and is shown so you can check it.

The 7,721 respondents of the Oct 20–23 and Oct 30–31 polls, weighted together as one sample to the Oct 30–31 targets. Each poll counts in proportion to its own effective sample size: 57% Oct 30–31 and 43% Oct 20–23 before the final weighting, 58% and 42% after it. Where the two polls' targets differ (15 values), the Oct 30–31 value is used; the recall and education held cells are rebuilt on the pooled respondents. The receipt below lists each difference. The re-interview panel is not included.

RaceLeaderRunner-upLeadMOE per candidateMOE on the lead
U.S. SenateAshley Moody, Republican 48%Angie Nixon, Democrat 45%Moody +3±1.6±3.1
GovernorByron Donalds, Republican 48%David Jolly, Democrat 46%Donalds +2±1.6±3.1

Design effect 2.08, effective n 3,710. Margins of error at 95% on the effective n; the margin on the lead is 1.96 * sqrt((p1 + p2 - (p1 - p2)^2) / effective_n), the two leading candidates' shares. Leads are computed before rounding, so they can differ by 1 point from the shares shown.

Read it with these caveats

  • The interviews span Oct 20–31. This is an average over those days, not a snapshot of one day.
  • The Oct 20–23 poll was in English only; the Oct 30–31 poll offered Spanish. Hispanic results should come from the Oct 30–31 poll alone.
  • The smaller margin of error covers sampling and the variation in weights only. It does not cover opinion changing between the two polls, coverage, nonresponse or the choice of weighting model. Don't read the smaller margin as more certainty than either poll alone gives.
  • The estimate leans on the 2024-vote (recall) target. Leaving that target out (the receipt's recipes without it) moves the Senate race to about Nixon +3.
  • Both polls oversampled the same five congressional districts (FL-13, FL-14, FL-22, FL-25, FL-27); weighting returns each to its share of the electorate, which raises the design effect.

Source: sensitivity_pooled/combined_effn.receipt.json (label combined-effn, computed_at 2026-11-01T14:33:01.508824+00:00).