{ "generated_at": "2026-11-01T17:37:02+0000", "sources": { "fetch": { "id": 99, "source_as_of": "2026-10-31T12:08:00+00:00", "fetched_at": "2026-10-31T13:36:57.141804+00:00", "payload_sha256": "15e3f12a35687825477a3ef1acbf20932e43847260ac3a3110901c7524509f2a", "newer_than_99": false }, "weights": { "path": "recall-records-plus-misreport.weights.json", "sha256": "1790a1e7342f1057d2b2005aee50e9c7430ef440a31c587d47fbea18f958d0d7" }, "county_2022_by_method.csv": { "path": "county_2022_by_method.csv", "sha256": "4ee1e8001634e19914c771a2403edc4c404070599c04b740dc17e7095c5fb020" }, "official_results_by_county.csv": { "path": "official_results_by_county.csv", "sha256": "09bfc581020ed754a3027e748697dc0e5d0a0e91d2a47e2ad73993ebe6ecb1cb" }, "ed_remainder_read_20261101.json": { "path": "ed_remainder_read_20261101.json", "sha256": "2e8b9053ccc46c31bdbda52dc045a3dec8909a3871d25ae03850b0eca2ea8364" }, "grid_summary_20261101.json": { "path": "grid_summary_20261101.json", "sha256": "a3340fed049f4f487486ee7822bbaaab6fda02b149065d5dde063ddd483e844c" }, "recall_consistent_targets_20261101.json": { "path": "recall_consistent_targets_20261101.json", "sha256": "96e7a74ca06f3f84556f557819c3d032e3eca1c9b142c1ec227f3a6e04fbd9de" }, "anchor_profile.sql": { "path": "anchor_profile.sql", "sha256": "8489f8ec39edfffb4234473283c41ac097031594cab484a011e495ae23622c4c" }, "crosstab_regions.py": { "path": "crosstab_regions.py", "sha256": "6542fe173107c6cd883d4fad246b0adaf97fe3842923f2b58ccc0f0e37e89114" }, "election_night_benchmarks.py": { "path": "election_night_benchmarks.py", "sha256": "5389cf6362d1d196c2313f4a27da32376d5ad84d7ad8a2207f242bfe0d23f48f" } }, "first_drop": { "statewide": { "expected_nixon_2p": 54.304700941, "expected_jolly_2p": 55.090081143, "anchor_overcorrected_if_at_least": 56.0, "republican_tilt_if_at_most": 52.0, "expected_nixon_2p_county_region_sum": 54.351786378, "expected_jolly_2p_county_region_sum": 55.12726006, "nixon_needs_2p": 57.208111358, "jolly_needs_2p": 56.688706894, "banked_ballots": 4726493, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 40.536059188, "D": 38.07588417, "NPA": 18.852498036, "minor": 2.535558606 }, "note": "Banked = voted_early + voted_mail, fetch 99 (as of 2026-10-31T12:08:00+00:00, votes through Fri Oct 30). Expected = within-party Nixon/Moody (Jolly/Donalds) shares of already-voted respondents under the approved weights, mixed to the banked party mix. The 56.0 / 52.0 thresholds are judgment, set by the lead, not computed. The real first drop also holds Sat-Mon early and late mail, which this fetch does not." }, "counties": [ { "county": "Miami-Dade", "banked_ballots": 447511, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 35.013887927, "D": 38.549666936, "NPA": 24.48453781, "minor": 1.951907327 }, "expected_nixon_2p": 57.642947525, "harris_2024_2p": 44.233823997, "nixon_needs_2p": 60.546357943, "expected_jolly_2p": 58.384796847, "jolly_needs_2p": 59.983422598, "region_mix_by_registered_voters": { "miami_dade": 92.131407015, "southeast": 7.868592985 } }, { "county": "Broward", "banked_ballots": 376023, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 21.869406925, "D": 54.457573074, "NPA": 21.519162392, "minor": 2.15385761 }, "expected_nixon_2p": 70.047962114, "harris_2024_2p": 58.563974696, "nixon_needs_2p": 72.951372531, "expected_jolly_2p": 70.60492604, "jolly_needs_2p": 72.203551792, "region_mix_by_registered_voters": { "miami_dade": 26.072179479, "southeast": 73.927820521 } }, { "county": "Palm Beach", "banked_ballots": 322578, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 30.479449931, "D": 45.977717017, "NPA": 20.56339862, "minor": 2.979434431 }, "expected_nixon_2p": 62.363243661, "harris_2024_2p": 50.383851718, "nixon_needs_2p": 65.266654078, "expected_jolly_2p": 63.188931693, "jolly_needs_2p": 64.787557445, "region_mix_by_registered_voters": { "southeast": 100.0 } }, { "county": "Hillsborough", "banked_ballots": 299923, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 35.365410455, "D": 42.050459618, "NPA": 20.103159811, "minor": 2.480970116 }, "expected_nixon_2p": 60.140611422, "harris_2024_2p": 48.450424434, "nixon_needs_2p": 63.044021839, "expected_jolly_2p": 60.840263024, "jolly_needs_2p": 62.438888775, "region_mix_by_registered_voters": { "tampa_bay": 100.0 } }, { "county": "Orange", "banked_ballots": 271139, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 26.755280502, "D": 49.234525465, "NPA": 21.483076946, "minor": 2.527117088 }, "expected_nixon_2p": 64.595395591, "harris_2024_2p": 56.887825788, "nixon_needs_2p": 67.498806008, "expected_jolly_2p": 65.129792592, "jolly_needs_2p": 66.728418344, "region_mix_by_registered_voters": { "central": 100.0 } }, { "county": "Pinellas", "banked_ballots": 230006, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 37.974661531, "D": 39.392450632, "NPA": 20.061650566, "minor": 2.571237272 }, "expected_nixon_2p": 57.875267457, "harris_2024_2p": 47.360936389, "nixon_needs_2p": 60.778677875, "expected_jolly_2p": 58.566160881, "jolly_needs_2p": 60.164786633, "region_mix_by_registered_voters": { "tampa_bay": 100.0 } }, { "county": "Lee", "banked_ballots": 210874, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 50.743097774, "D": 26.464144465, "NPA": 20.135720857, "minor": 2.657036904 }, "expected_nixon_2p": 43.737237631, "harris_2024_2p": 35.711629362, "nixon_needs_2p": 46.640648048, "expected_jolly_2p": 45.341136519, "jolly_needs_2p": 46.939762271, "region_mix_by_registered_voters": { "southwest": 99.999615558 } }, { "county": "Duval", "banked_ballots": 195613, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 35.84270984, "D": 47.482018066, "NPA": 14.272568797, "minor": 2.402703297 }, "expected_nixon_2p": 59.821132135, "harris_2024_2p": 49.256952647, "nixon_needs_2p": 62.724542552, "expected_jolly_2p": 60.253722603, "jolly_needs_2p": 61.852348355, "region_mix_by_registered_voters": { "north": 99.999592246 } }, { "county": "Brevard", "banked_ballots": 161008, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 46.172860976, "D": 32.449319288, "NPA": 18.476100566, "minor": 2.901719169 }, "expected_nixon_2p": 48.123462459, "harris_2024_2p": 39.476361644, "nixon_needs_2p": 51.026872876, "expected_jolly_2p": 48.692647572, "jolly_needs_2p": 50.291273324, "region_mix_by_registered_voters": { "central": 100.0 } }, { "county": "Volusia", "banked_ballots": 140643, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 44.356277952, "D": 33.629828715, "NPA": 18.915267735, "minor": 3.098625598 }, "expected_nixon_2p": 50.051675989, "harris_2024_2p": 39.026323569, "nixon_needs_2p": 52.955086406, "expected_jolly_2p": 50.645159032, "jolly_needs_2p": 52.243784784, "region_mix_by_registered_voters": { "central": 56.711197175, "north": 43.288802825 } }, { "county": "Sarasota", "banked_ballots": 137777, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 45.755822815, "D": 33.292204069, "NPA": 18.235264231, "minor": 2.716708885 }, "expected_nixon_2p": 49.259881093, "harris_2024_2p": 40.838459224, "nixon_needs_2p": 52.16329151, "expected_jolly_2p": 50.6589655, "jolly_needs_2p": 52.257591251, "region_mix_by_registered_voters": { "southwest": 84.450761231, "tampa_bay": 15.549238769 } }, { "county": "Polk", "banked_ballots": 126900, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 40.548463357, "D": 39.604412924, "NPA": 17.307328605, "minor": 2.539795114 }, "expected_nixon_2p": 56.547551554, "harris_2024_2p": 39.569210489, "nixon_needs_2p": 59.450961971, "expected_jolly_2p": 57.232477924, "jolly_needs_2p": 58.831103675, "region_mix_by_registered_voters": { "central": 1.828214704, "tampa_bay": 98.171785296 } }, { "county": "Pasco", "banked_ballots": 125796, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 43.322522179, "D": 33.493910776, "NPA": 20.120671563, "minor": 3.062895482 }, "expected_nixon_2p": 53.085486272, "harris_2024_2p": 37.258627855, "nixon_needs_2p": 55.988896689, "expected_jolly_2p": 53.755518771, "jolly_needs_2p": 55.354144523, "region_mix_by_registered_voters": { "tampa_bay": 100.0 } }, { "county": "Seminole", "banked_ballots": 110215, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 36.614798349, "D": 39.53999002, "NPA": 21.059746858, "minor": 2.785464773 }, "expected_nixon_2p": 55.823337376, "harris_2024_2p": 48.199655024, "nixon_needs_2p": 58.726747793, "expected_jolly_2p": 56.356062461, "jolly_needs_2p": 57.954688213, "region_mix_by_registered_voters": { "central": 100.0 } }, { "county": "Collier", "banked_ballots": 107874, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 56.327752749, "D": 23.4912954, "NPA": 17.772586536, "minor": 2.408365315 }, "expected_nixon_2p": 40.159020095, "harris_2024_2p": 33.360156661, "nixon_needs_2p": 43.062430513, "expected_jolly_2p": 41.657516157, "jolly_needs_2p": 43.256141908, "region_mix_by_registered_voters": { "southeast": 45.903452853, "southwest": 54.096547147 } }, { "county": "Osceola", "banked_ballots": 75578, "banked_party_pct": { "R": 29.054751383, "D": 44.878139141, "NPA": 23.607398979, "minor": 2.459710498 }, "expected_nixon_2p": 62.302829331, "harris_2024_2p": 49.266314841, "nixon_needs_2p": 65.206239748, "expected_jolly_2p": 62.843634111, "jolly_needs_2p": 64.442259863, "region_mix_by_registered_voters": { "central": 83.021839841, "tampa_bay": 16.978160159 } } ] }, "election_day": { "statewide": { "expected_remaining_RminusD": 27.532868252, "ed_2022_RminusD": 26.775683305, "remainder_2022_same_window_RminusD": 18.51, "surge_continuing_if_at_most": 18.51, "republican_wave_if_at_least": 37.04, "nixon_needs_ed_2p": 43.697648925, "expected_nixon_ed_2p": 39.446874709, "jolly_needs_ed_2p": 42.535062889, "expected_jolly_ed_2p": 40.190573604, "expected_nixon_ed_2p_direct_not_yet_voted": 35.39554047, "expected_jolly_ed_2p_direct_not_yet_voted": 35.923984634, "remaining_ballots": 3318399, "remaining_by_party": { "R": 1753956, "D": 840306, "NPA": 638447, "minor": 85690 }, "counties_carrying_P0_vs_B1_difference": [ { "county": "Broward", "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 51944, "B1_minus_P0_RminusD_pts": 19.145103582 }, { "county": "Miami-Dade", "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 50105, "B1_minus_P0_RminusD_pts": 18.913767463 }, { "county": "Palm Beach", "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 39004, "B1_minus_P0_RminusD_pts": 18.762855045 }, { "county": "Hillsborough", "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 32366, "B1_minus_P0_RminusD_pts": 18.988877424 }, { "county": "Orange", "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 30024, "B1_minus_P0_RminusD_pts": 19.499096101 }, { "county": "Pinellas", "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 28683, "B1_minus_P0_RminusD_pts": 18.873328293 } ] }, "counties": [ { "county": "Miami-Dade", "ed_2022_RminusD": 5.979779198, "ed_2022_voters_on_file": 215125, "expected_2026_ed_RminusD": 12.579760156, "expected_2026_remaining_ballots": 292124, "P0_RminusD": 3.610511671, "B1_RminusD": 22.524279135, "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 50105 }, { "county": "Broward", "ed_2022_RminusD": -6.308693996, "ed_2022_voters_on_file": 178468, "expected_2026_ed_RminusD": -6.704792341, "expected_2026_remaining_ballots": 256615, "P0_RminusD": -15.567281102, "B1_RminusD": 3.57782248, "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 51944 }, { "county": "Palm Beach", "ed_2022_RminusD": 15.936954625, "ed_2022_voters_on_file": 183360, "expected_2026_ed_RminusD": 13.760881973, "expected_2026_remaining_ballots": 228442, "P0_RminusD": 4.78890407, "B1_RminusD": 23.551759115, "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 39004 }, { "county": "Hillsborough", "ed_2022_RminusD": 18.204920551, "ed_2022_voters_on_file": 143236, "expected_2026_ed_RminusD": 18.099493743, "expected_2026_remaining_ballots": 190820, "P0_RminusD": 8.974084772, "B1_RminusD": 27.962962196, "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 32366 }, { "county": "Orange", "ed_2022_RminusD": 1.428341915, "ed_2022_voters_on_file": 130711, "expected_2026_ed_RminusD": 6.332638121, "expected_2026_remaining_ballots": 161967, "P0_RminusD": -2.885108886, "B1_RminusD": 16.613987215, "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 30024 }, { "county": "Pinellas", "ed_2022_RminusD": 25.715730418, "ed_2022_voters_on_file": 124593, "expected_2026_ed_RminusD": 19.724457047, "expected_2026_remaining_ballots": 170703, "P0_RminusD": 10.623352297, "B1_RminusD": 29.49668059, "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 28683 }, { "county": "Lee", "ed_2022_RminusD": 41.404682274, "ed_2022_voters_on_file": 4485, "expected_2026_ed_RminusD": 51.508832317, "expected_2026_remaining_ballots": 73688, "P0_RminusD": 44.419035232, "B1_RminusD": 58.564386817, "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 9377 }, { "county": "Duval", "ed_2022_RminusD": 16.163061538, "ed_2022_voters_on_file": 125793, "expected_2026_ed_RminusD": 20.35160773, "expected_2026_remaining_ballots": 152497, "P0_RminusD": 10.486984444, "B1_RminusD": 30.866549347, "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 28052 }, { "county": "Brevard", "ed_2022_RminusD": 36.49858694, "ed_2022_voters_on_file": 100845, "expected_2026_ed_RminusD": 36.779356378, "expected_2026_remaining_ballots": 115371, "P0_RminusD": 28.498884575, "B1_RminusD": 45.26604079, "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 16926 }, { "county": "Volusia", "ed_2022_RminusD": 33.698238298, "ed_2022_voters_on_file": 74814, "expected_2026_ed_RminusD": 33.512322785, "expected_2026_remaining_ballots": 94377, "P0_RminusD": 25.100382882, "B1_RminusD": 42.21663224, "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 14044 }, { "county": "Sarasota", "ed_2022_RminusD": 45.753248148, "ed_2022_voters_on_file": 65191, "expected_2026_ed_RminusD": 43.913866781, "expected_2026_remaining_ballots": 79707, "P0_RminusD": 36.224710096, "B1_RminusD": 51.652725709, "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 10942 }, { "county": "Polk", "ed_2022_RminusD": 36.197096515, "ed_2022_voters_on_file": 105735, "expected_2026_ed_RminusD": 36.821663533, "expected_2026_remaining_ballots": 115389, "P0_RminusD": 28.028304659, "B1_RminusD": 45.8392977, "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 18102 }, { "county": "Pasco", "ed_2022_RminusD": 36.232627205, "ed_2022_voters_on_file": 93609, "expected_2026_ed_RminusD": 37.313253522, "expected_2026_remaining_ballots": 110740, "P0_RminusD": 29.190028707, "B1_RminusD": 45.634543937, "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 15877 }, { "county": "Seminole", "ed_2022_RminusD": 20.491504653, "ed_2022_voters_on_file": 60386, "expected_2026_ed_RminusD": 23.223761225, "expected_2026_remaining_ballots": 78913, "P0_RminusD": 14.329526254, "B1_RminusD": 32.6960154, "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 12729 }, { "county": "Collier", "ed_2022_RminusD": 49.163035067, "ed_2022_voters_on_file": 49106, "expected_2026_ed_RminusD": 53.04871248, "expected_2026_remaining_ballots": 58805, "P0_RminusD": 46.094653036, "B1_RminusD": 59.932273517, "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 7445 }, { "county": "Osceola", "ed_2022_RminusD": 8.61805533, "ed_2022_voters_on_file": 30761, "expected_2026_ed_RminusD": 12.210106423, "expected_2026_remaining_ballots": 40453, "P0_RminusD": 3.283431089, "B1_RminusD": 22.075195377, "B1_minus_P0_margin_votes": 6927 } ] }, "scenarios": [ { "name": "P0 + E1", "final_RminusD": 9.2, "senate": -0.5028620061697566, "governor": 0.9588696485377568, "remaining_RminusD": 18.5, "what_you_would_see": "Everything counted after the Oct 31 report (mostly Election Day) runs about R+18.5 statewide. In the five biggest remaining-vote counties on the list, the count after Oct 31 would run about (R minus D, points): Miami-Dade +3.6; Broward -15.6; Palm Beach +4.8; Hillsborough +9.0; Pinellas +10.6. The P0-against-B1 difference shows up most, in votes, in Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Hillsborough; those are where to look first. Statewide this gives Senate -0.50 and Governor +0.96 (D minus R)." }, { "name": "Midpoint + E1", "final_RminusD": 12.8, "senate": -3.1952549942921777, "governor": -1.7710510061805564, "remaining_RminusD": 27.54, "what_you_would_see": "Everything counted after the Oct 31 report (mostly Election Day) runs about R+27.5 statewide. In the five biggest remaining-vote counties on the list, the count after Oct 31 would run about (R minus D, points): Miami-Dade +12.6; Broward -6.7; Palm Beach +13.8; Hillsborough +18.1; Pinellas +19.7. The P0-against-B1 difference shows up most, in votes, in Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Hillsborough; those are where to look first. Statewide this gives Senate -3.20 and Governor -1.77 (D minus R)." }, { "name": "B1 + E1", "final_RminusD": 16.4, "senate": -5.878194069204497, "governor": -4.497023426546583, "remaining_RminusD": 37.04370437, "what_you_would_see": "Everything counted after the Oct 31 report (mostly Election Day) runs about R+37.0 statewide. In the five biggest remaining-vote counties on the list, the count after Oct 31 would run about (R minus D, points): Miami-Dade +22.5; Broward +3.6; Palm Beach +23.6; Hillsborough +28.0; Pinellas +29.5. The P0-against-B1 difference shows up most, in votes, in Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Hillsborough; those are where to look first. Statewide this gives Senate -5.88 and Governor -4.50 (D minus R)." } ], "method_notes": [ "Fetch: fl_dos_vbm_ev_stats fetch for 2026-11-03 id 99 (source_as_of 2026-10-31T12:08:00+00:00), the latest when the release page was built. Values are unrounded; the page rounds once. Banked 4,726,493: R 1,915,934, D 1,799,654, NPA 891,062, minor 119,843.", "Already-voted respondents: q1 'Already voted' or a verified 2026 early in-person ballot, with a file party: n=2143 (168 with no mapped CD; they count statewide, not in a region). Statewide within-party shares, approved weights (share of all respondents in the party, Nixon / Moody): R n=836 9.2/85.7; D n=842 92.0/3.5; NPA n=378 55.3/31.7; minor n=87 66.5/29.8. Governor Jolly / Donalds: R 10.4/84.8; D 92.8/3.3; NPA 56.8/31.6; minor 66.0/29.1.", "Region x party shares (respondent CD from voter_geographies_p_fl, latest row; regions from crosstab_regions.py) are shrunk toward the statewide party share: s = lam*s_region + (1-lam)*s_state, lam = n/(n+100), n unweighted. Senate Nixon/Moody: central: R n=151 7.3/88.0, D n=191 91.6/3.7, NPA n=75 55.2/33.3, minor n=25 66.8/27.8; miami_dade: R n=72 6.8/85.6, D n=71 90.1/2.6, NPA n=44 55.7/27.0, minor n=5 67.0/29.5; north: R n=177 10.7/85.7, D n=160 92.3/4.3, NPA n=68 54.6/33.5, minor n=17 65.0/31.9; southeast: R n=73 8.8/84.7, D n=105 91.2/3.4, NPA n=39 55.6/33.0, minor n=13 67.3/29.5; southwest: R n=121 8.0/87.9, D n=66 92.5/4.0, NPA n=44 54.4/32.8, minor n=5 67.1/29.4; tampa_bay: R n=174 12.0/83.7, D n=179 94.1/2.8, NPA n=81 56.5/30.2, minor n=19 64.8/31.0.", "County expected share = sum_p banked[c,p] * sum_r f[c,p,r] * share[r,p] (Nixon and Moody each), then two-party; f[c,p,r] is the share of the county's registered voters of party p whose CD lies in region r (voter file), so split counties blend regions. Statewide check: party-mix rule 54.30 (Senate) / 55.09 (Governor) against the published 54.3 / 55.1; the county x region sum gives 54.35 / 55.13.", "Approved electorate: midpoint total 8,044,892 (mean of P0 and B1 totals) x verdict-32 shares, minus banked: remaining 3,318,399, R 1,753,956, D 840,306, NPA 638,447, minor 85,690, R-D +27.53.", "Senate arithmetic: approved all-respondent shares D 44.71 / R 47.90 on 8,044,892 ballots -> R lead 257,055 votes. Pre-ED (banked 4,726,493 x party-mix shares): Nixon lead 381,119, two-party votes 4,426,774. Remainder by subtraction: D 1,192,725 / R 1,830,898 -> expected remainder Nixon 2p 39.45. Tie in remainder: (3,023,623 - 381,119) / (2 x 3,023,623) = 43.70. First-drop tie with the remainder at its expected split: (P2 + R_rem - D_rem)/(2 P2) = 57.21, a uniform shift of +2.90 pts added to every county's expected share (county nixon_needs_2p).", "Governor arithmetic: approved all-respondent shares D 45.70 / R 47.47 on 8,044,892 ballots -> R lead 142,479 votes. Pre-ED (banked 4,726,493 x party-mix shares): Jolly lead 453,659, two-party votes 4,456,301. Remainder by subtraction: D 1,221,229 / R 1,817,367 -> expected remainder Jolly 2p 40.19. Tie in remainder: (3,038,596 - 453,659) / (2 x 3,038,596) = 42.54. First-drop tie with the remainder at its expected split: (P2 + R_rem - D_rem)/(2 P2) = 56.69, a uniform shift of +1.60 pts added to every county's expected share (county jolly_needs_2p).", "Cross-check, not used for thresholds: not-yet-voted respondents' within-party shares (approved weights, n=755) mixed to the midpoint remainder party mix give remainder Nixon 2p 35.40 / Jolly 35.92, against 39.45 / 40.19 by subtraction from the approved toplines.", "Election Day reserve by county x party: 2022 general voters on the current file (current county, current party) minus those already banked early in person in 2026 (voter_ballot through Oct 30), minus 2026 mail returned (fetch 99), as in cannibalization.py. Statewide reserve: R 1,796,697, D 838,608, NPA 691,364, minor 78,597; scaled per party to the midpoint remainder (factors R 0.976, D 1.002, NPA 0.923, minor 1.090). 0 county x party cells were negative and set to 0. 2022 voters with no county code: 0.", "Window warning: 'expected_remaining_RminusD' and the county expected_2026_ed_RminusD are everything counted after fetch 99 (Sat-Sun early in person, late mail, and Election Day). 2022 Election Day proper from county_2022_by_method.csv (voter-file history, current party and county, voters still on file) was +26.78 statewide; 2022's remainder on the same window was +18.51 (P0). So compare the 2026 expectation of +27.5 with +18.5, not with +26.8: Election Day proper will run more Republican than the remainder figure because the Sat-Sun early vote lands in the first drop.", "Thresholds: surge_continuing_if_at_most = P0 remainder R-D, republican_wave_if_at_least = B1 remainder R-D, both from ed_remainder_read_20261101.json. Scenario toplines (all-respondent D-R) from grid_summary_20261101.json labels s1-p0-consistent-e1-recall44.24, recall-records-plus-misreport, s1-b1-consistent-e1-recall41.19; final R-D as given in findings section AA. Scenario county figures reuse the one reserve shape, scaled per party to each projection's remainder. Reporting order by county on election night is not in stored data, so 'which counties show it first' means where the scenarios differ most in votes.", "Query time: reserve 11s, county x CD 12s; geography join rows 16,171,659 vs distinct voters 16,171,659; total 24s." ] }