{
 "input_file": "model_results.json",
 "input_sha256": "58020757a54876ad5eb91515866ff8030eac0df698120b79c56b3c95c0d317b6",
 "rules_doc": "Backtest of same-day trajectory rules for Florida's final electorate by registered party.",
 "backtests": [
  {
   "cutoff": "monday",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2022",
   "rule": "P0",
   "projected": {
    "R": 42.08,
    "D": 36.15,
    "O": 21.77
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 45.44,
    "D": 33.44,
    "O": 21.12
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": -3.35,
    "D": 2.71,
    "O": 0.64
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -6.06,
   "midterm_to_midterm": true
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "monday",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2022",
   "rule": "PF",
   "projected": {
    "R": 43.19,
    "D": 34.8,
    "O": 22.0
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 45.44,
    "D": 33.44,
    "O": 21.12
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": -2.24,
    "D": 1.36,
    "O": 0.88
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -3.6,
   "midterm_to_midterm": true
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "monday",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2022",
   "rule": "B1",
   "projected": {
    "R": 42.37,
    "D": 35.18,
    "O": 22.45
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 45.44,
    "D": 33.44,
    "O": 21.12
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": -3.07,
    "D": 1.74,
    "O": 1.33
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -4.81,
   "midterm_to_midterm": true
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "monday",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2022",
   "rule": "C1",
   "projected": {
    "R": 41.63,
    "D": 35.56,
    "O": 22.8
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 45.44,
    "D": 33.44,
    "O": 21.12
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": -3.8,
    "D": 2.12,
    "O": 1.68
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -5.92,
   "midterm_to_midterm": true
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "monday",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2022",
   "rule": "MID",
   "projected": {
    "R": 42.23,
    "D": 35.67,
    "O": 22.11
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 45.44,
    "D": 33.44,
    "O": 21.12
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": -3.21,
    "D": 2.22,
    "O": 0.99
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -5.43,
   "midterm_to_midterm": true
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "monday",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "P0",
   "projected": {
    "R": 42.42,
    "D": 33.54,
    "O": 24.04
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": -0.27,
    "D": 1.82,
    "O": -1.56
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -2.09,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "monday",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "PF",
   "projected": {
    "R": 42.95,
    "D": 30.95,
    "O": 26.1
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 0.27,
    "D": -0.77,
    "O": 0.5
   },
   "rd_error_pts": 1.03,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "monday",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "B1",
   "projected": {
    "R": 43.09,
    "D": 32.35,
    "O": 24.56
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 0.4,
    "D": 0.64,
    "O": -1.04
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -0.23,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "monday",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "C1",
   "projected": {
    "R": 44.77,
    "D": 32.74,
    "O": 22.49
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 2.08,
    "D": 1.03,
    "O": -3.11
   },
   "rd_error_pts": 1.05,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "monday",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "MID",
   "projected": {
    "R": 42.75,
    "D": 32.95,
    "O": 24.3
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 0.07,
    "D": 1.23,
    "O": -1.3
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -1.16,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "monday",
   "history": "2022",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "P0",
   "projected": {
    "R": 44.79,
    "D": 31.56,
    "O": 23.65
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 2.1,
    "D": -0.16,
    "O": -1.95
   },
   "rd_error_pts": 2.26,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "monday",
   "history": "2022",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "PF",
   "projected": {
    "R": 45.19,
    "D": 29.74,
    "O": 25.06
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 2.51,
    "D": -1.97,
    "O": -0.54
   },
   "rd_error_pts": 4.48,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "monday",
   "history": "2022",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "B1",
   "projected": {
    "R": 44.48,
    "D": 31.59,
    "O": 23.93
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 1.8,
    "D": -0.13,
    "O": -1.67
   },
   "rd_error_pts": 1.93,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "monday",
   "history": "2022",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "C1",
   "projected": {
    "R": 44.06,
    "D": 32.42,
    "O": 23.52
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 1.37,
    "D": 0.71,
    "O": -2.08
   },
   "rd_error_pts": 0.67,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "monday",
   "history": "2022",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "MID",
   "projected": {
    "R": 44.64,
    "D": 31.57,
    "O": 23.79
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 1.95,
    "D": -0.14,
    "O": -1.81
   },
   "rd_error_pts": 2.09,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "end_of_early",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2022",
   "rule": "P0",
   "projected": {
    "R": 42.06,
    "D": 36.19,
    "O": 21.75
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 45.44,
    "D": 33.44,
    "O": 21.12
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": -3.37,
    "D": 2.75,
    "O": 0.63
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -6.12,
   "midterm_to_midterm": true
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "end_of_early",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2022",
   "rule": "PF",
   "projected": {
    "R": 43.05,
    "D": 35.04,
    "O": 21.92
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 45.44,
    "D": 33.44,
    "O": 21.12
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": -2.39,
    "D": 1.59,
    "O": 0.8
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -3.98,
   "midterm_to_midterm": true
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "end_of_early",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2022",
   "rule": "B1",
   "projected": {
    "R": 42.41,
    "D": 35.22,
    "O": 22.37
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 45.44,
    "D": 33.44,
    "O": 21.12
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": -3.02,
    "D": 1.78,
    "O": 1.25
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -4.8,
   "midterm_to_midterm": true
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "end_of_early",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2022",
   "rule": "C1",
   "projected": {
    "R": 41.63,
    "D": 35.56,
    "O": 22.8
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 45.44,
    "D": 33.44,
    "O": 21.12
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": -3.8,
    "D": 2.12,
    "O": 1.68
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -5.92,
   "midterm_to_midterm": true
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "end_of_early",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2022",
   "rule": "MID",
   "projected": {
    "R": 42.24,
    "D": 35.7,
    "O": 22.06
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 45.44,
    "D": 33.44,
    "O": 21.12
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": -3.2,
    "D": 2.26,
    "O": 0.94
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -5.46,
   "midterm_to_midterm": true
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "end_of_early",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "P0",
   "projected": {
    "R": 42.31,
    "D": 33.51,
    "O": 24.18
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": -0.37,
    "D": 1.79,
    "O": -1.42
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -2.17,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "end_of_early",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "PF",
   "projected": {
    "R": 42.83,
    "D": 31.14,
    "O": 26.03
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 0.15,
    "D": -0.58,
    "O": 0.43
   },
   "rd_error_pts": 0.73,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "end_of_early",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "B1",
   "projected": {
    "R": 42.96,
    "D": 32.4,
    "O": 24.64
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 0.27,
    "D": 0.69,
    "O": -0.96
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -0.41,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "end_of_early",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "C1",
   "projected": {
    "R": 44.43,
    "D": 32.5,
    "O": 23.07
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 1.75,
    "D": 0.78,
    "O": -2.53
   },
   "rd_error_pts": 0.96,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "end_of_early",
   "history": "2018",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "MID",
   "projected": {
    "R": 42.64,
    "D": 32.96,
    "O": 24.41
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": -0.05,
    "D": 1.24,
    "O": -1.19
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -1.29,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "end_of_early",
   "history": "2022",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "P0",
   "projected": {
    "R": 44.68,
    "D": 31.53,
    "O": 23.79
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 2.0,
    "D": -0.18,
    "O": -1.81
   },
   "rd_error_pts": 2.18,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "end_of_early",
   "history": "2022",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "PF",
   "projected": {
    "R": 45.2,
    "D": 29.72,
    "O": 25.08
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 2.52,
    "D": -2.0,
    "O": -0.52
   },
   "rd_error_pts": 4.52,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "end_of_early",
   "history": "2022",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "B1",
   "projected": {
    "R": 44.28,
    "D": 31.65,
    "O": 24.07
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 1.59,
    "D": -0.06,
    "O": -1.53
   },
   "rd_error_pts": 1.66,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "end_of_early",
   "history": "2022",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "C1",
   "projected": {
    "R": 43.31,
    "D": 32.79,
    "O": 23.9
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 0.63,
    "D": 1.08,
    "O": -1.7
   },
   "rd_error_pts": -0.45,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  },
  {
   "cutoff": "end_of_early",
   "history": "2022",
   "target": "2024",
   "rule": "MID",
   "projected": {
    "R": 44.48,
    "D": 31.59,
    "O": 23.93
   },
   "actual": {
    "R": 42.69,
    "D": 31.72,
    "O": 25.6
   },
   "error_pts": {
    "R": 1.8,
    "D": -0.12,
    "O": -1.67
   },
   "rd_error_pts": 1.92,
   "midterm_to_midterm": false
  }
 ],
 "summary": {
  "P0": {
   "n_backtests": 6,
   "mean_abs_rd_error": 3.48,
   "mean_rd_error": -2.0,
   "midterm_rd_errors": [
    -6.06,
    -6.12
   ],
   "max_abs_share_error": 3.37
  },
  "PF": {
   "n_backtests": 6,
   "mean_abs_rd_error": 3.06,
   "mean_rd_error": 0.53,
   "midterm_rd_errors": [
    -3.6,
    -3.98
   ],
   "max_abs_share_error": 2.52
  },
  "B1": {
   "n_backtests": 6,
   "mean_abs_rd_error": 2.31,
   "mean_rd_error": -1.11,
   "midterm_rd_errors": [
    -4.81,
    -4.8
   ],
   "max_abs_share_error": 3.07
  },
  "C1": {
   "n_backtests": 6,
   "mean_abs_rd_error": 2.5,
   "mean_rd_error": -1.6,
   "midterm_rd_errors": [
    -5.92,
    -5.92
   ],
   "max_abs_share_error": 3.8
  },
  "MID": {
   "n_backtests": 6,
   "mean_abs_rd_error": 2.89,
   "mean_rd_error": -1.55,
   "midterm_rd_errors": [
    -5.43,
    -5.46
   ],
   "max_abs_share_error": 3.21
  }
 },
 "live_2026_friday_from_2022": {
  "P0": {
   "R": 43.64,
   "D": 34.4,
   "O": 21.97,
   "R_minus_D": 9.24
  },
  "PF": {
   "R": 42.06,
   "D": 34.84,
   "O": 23.1,
   "R_minus_D": 7.23
  },
  "B1": {
   "R": 47.69,
   "D": 31.29,
   "O": 21.01,
   "R_minus_D": 16.4
  },
  "C1": {
   "R": 51.0,
   "D": 29.01,
   "O": 19.99,
   "R_minus_D": 22.0
  },
  "MID": {
   "R": 45.66,
   "D": 32.85,
   "O": 21.49,
   "R_minus_D": 12.82
  }
 }
}