{ "generated_at": "2026-11-01T11:57:23.937715+00:00", "question": "estimated 2024 Harris two-party share among 2026 FL voters vs the certified 43.39 anchor", "elections": [ { "id": "2d2f2f2f-7835-4504-8160-225b4136f286", "election_date": "2022-11-08", "election_type": "general", "election_name": "General", "election_code": "GEN", "source_label": "11/08/2022" }, { "id": "4949b519-40b7-4479-82d7-db5b38f913fa", "election_date": "2024-11-05", "election_type": "general", "election_name": "General", "election_code": "GEN", "source_label": "11/05/2024" }, { "id": "964d0079-43e2-44a2-9fc4-60a26de867d9", "election_date": "2026-11-03", "election_type": "general", "election_name": "FL general 2026-11-03", "election_code": null, "source_label": "ballot_returns_ingest" } ], "fetch": { "id": 99, "source_key": "fl_dos_vbm_ev_stats", "election_date": "2026-11-03", "source_ref": "election 49894", "source_as_of": "2026-10-31T12:08:00+00:00", "fetched_at": "2026-10-31T13:36:57.141804+00:00", "payload_sha256": "15e3f12a35687825477a3ef1acbf20932e43847260ac3a3110901c7524509f2a", "rows_loaded": 816 }, "diagnostics": { "vh24_rows": 10741700, "vh24_distinct_voters": 10741700, "vh24_not_on_file": 0, "b26_rows": 2836602, "b26_distinct_voters": 2836602, "b26_not_on_file": 0, "voters_rows": 16171659, "voters_distinct": 16171659, "b26_returned_range": "2026-10-12..2026-10-30", "b26_methods": "early_in_person/accepted", "b26_event_kinds": "voted/early_in_person" }, "input_row_counts": { "elections": 3, "pres_2024": 67, "fetch": 1, "county_party": 268, "diagnostics": 1, "respondents": 24, "ev_counts": 804 }, "file_inputs": { "recall_anchor_admin_test.sql": "fe91a8addf306a91787abc6dab2582fa99f6a6ad245b6a88a815d5b7c0f52145", "recall_consistent_targets.py": "692a9e31ebf437ab6916bc03563841754f495f7adadd04e9230b0ba86f5cf2d0", "manifest.json": "828305e36da553cac5dd072e59c87f89b5982d08229aa85c69d502c2cf7df058", "pin_amendment_14.json": "5e2d934a21560179e9a1845157bd0f0e510835c9b2f9e8a1698faab2b380ce2d", "model_results.json": "58020757a54876ad5eb91515866ff8030eac0df698120b79c56b3c95c0d317b6", "r_recall_senate.sql": "36f5e589a7001f30685a413f248964be14d8e7394f823aaa862360add29e786d" }, "county_mapping_check": { "codes_in_map": 67, "voterfile_codes": 67, "voterfile_codes_unmapped": [], "map_codes_absent_from_voterfile": [], "pres_fips": 67, "fips_unmatched": [], "pres_name_mismatches": [], "ev_counties": 67, "ev_names_unmatched": [] }, "certified_2024_harris2p": 0.43388930566507705, "coverage": { "sum_N24": 10741700, "certified_total_ballots": 10893752, "statewide": 0.9860422745074424, "N24_by_party": { "R": 4649209, "D": 3333051, "NPA": 2446802, "minor": 312638 }, "county_min": { "county": "Franklin", "coverage": 0.9701094998520272 }, "county_max": { "county": "Hendry", "coverage": 1.013893016344725 }, "county_median": 0.9892994329614048, "by_county": { "Alachua": { "N24": 135023, "certified_total": 136548, "coverage": 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"Lee": { "N24": 386346, "certified_total": 392532, "coverage": 0.9842407752743725 }, "Leon": { "N24": 153096, "certified_total": 156802, "coverage": 0.9763650973839619 }, "Levy": { "N24": 24314, "certified_total": 24378, "coverage": 0.9973746820904094 }, "Liberty": { "N24": 3477, "certified_total": 3490, "coverage": 0.9962750716332378 }, "Madison": { "N24": 9069, "certified_total": 9156, "coverage": 0.9904980340760158 }, "Manatee": { "N24": 225925, "certified_total": 228860, "coverage": 0.9871755658481167 }, "Monroe": { "N24": 43285, "certified_total": 44328, "coverage": 0.9764708536365277 }, "Marion": { "N24": 212584, "certified_total": 214106, "coverage": 0.9928913715636181 }, "Martin": { "N24": 97522, "certified_total": 98291, "coverage": 0.9921762928447162 }, "Nassau": { "N24": 65267, "certified_total": 65625, "coverage": 0.9945447619047619 }, "Okaloosa": { "N24": 111343, "certified_total": 113636, "coverage": 0.9798215354289134 }, "Okeechobee": { "N24": 15988, "certified_total": 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1.0069736702168066 }, "St. Lucie": { "N24": 186769, "certified_total": 185131, "coverage": 1.0088477888630214 }, "Sumter": { "N24": 104075, "certified_total": 105218, "coverage": 0.9891368397042332 }, "Suwannee": { "N24": 21728, "certified_total": 21891, "coverage": 0.9925540176328171 }, "Taylor": { "N24": 9735, "certified_total": 9997, "coverage": 0.9737921376412924 }, "Union": { "N24": 6150, "certified_total": 6231, "coverage": 0.9870004814636495 }, "Volusia": { "N24": 307347, "certified_total": 310498, "coverage": 0.9898517864849371 }, "Wakulla": { "N24": 20090, "certified_total": 19856, "coverage": 1.011784850926672 }, "Walton": { "N24": 48737, "certified_total": 49601, "coverage": 0.98258099635088 }, "Washington": { "N24": 12629, "certified_total": 12584, "coverage": 1.0035759694850603 } } }, "fit": { "r_p": { "R": 0.0, "D": 1.0, "NPA": 0.41550980399060167, "minor": 1.0 }, "rmse_county_share_weighted": 0.02139819099749123, "rmse_county_share_unweighted": 0.04917354690407892, 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"ballots": 1845584, "harris2p_2024": 0.5364798353349225, "label": "assumes banked mail voters vote like their county-party's 2024 voters; no person-level mail returns" }, "county_counts_early_fetch": { "ballots": 2880909, "harris2p_2024": 0.45248995426576966 }, "county_counts_all_cast_assumed": { "ballots": 4726493, "harris2p_2024": 0.4852860211726986, "by_party": { "R": 1915934, "D": 1799654, "NPA": 891062, "minor": 119843 }, "label": "assumes banked voters vote like their county-party's 2024 voters; 2024 participation of mail voters unknown" }, "combined_person_early_plus_mail_2024_weighted": { "weight_2024_voters": 4275708.181256584, "harris2p_2024": 0.47908495133976575, "label": "early in-person: person-level 2024 voters; mail: fetch counts x the county-party's early-voter 2024-record share" }, "county_counts_all_cast_2024record_weighted": { "harris2p_2024": 0.4802178911478224, "label": "fetch counts x the county-party's person-level early-voter 2024-record share; assumes banked voters vote like their county-party's 2024 voters" } }, "projection": { "targets_verdict32": { "R": 0.4561764497697739, "D": 0.328153550417899, "NPA": 0.19012176593310742, "minor": 0.02554823387921967 }, "banked_by_party_fetch": { "R": 1915934, "D": 1799654, "NPA": 891062, "minor": 119843 }, "projected_totals": { "P0": 8183687.999999998, "B1": 7906095.647759779, "midpoint_mean_P0_B1": 8044891.823879888 }, "projected_total_note": "the midpoint build stores shares only; P0 and B1 totals from pin_amendment_14 projections, primary = their mean", "a_pool_2024_not_yet_voted": { "P0": { "projected_total": 8183687.999999998, "remainder_by_party": { "R": 1817271.7378635006, "D": 885852.2727123545, "NPA": 664835.2144055797, "minor": 89235.7750185634 }, "negative_remainder": false, "harris2p_2024_all_ballots": 0.4327915573948459, "harris2p_2024_2024record_weighted": 0.4271299693013135, "remainder_only": 0.36102392045658394 }, "B1": { "projected_total": 7906095.647759779, "remainder_by_party": { 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people still on the file", "records_consistent": { "verdict32": { "party_target": { "R": 0.4561764497697739, "D": 0.328153550417899, "NPA": 0.19012176593310742, "minor": 0.02554823387921967 }, "a_pool_2024_not_yet_voted": { "P0": { "projected_total": 8183687.999999998, "remainder_by_party": { "R": 1817271.7378635006, "D": 885852.2727123545, "NPA": 664835.2144055797, "minor": 89235.7750185634 }, "negative_remainder": false, "harris2p_2024_all_ballots": 0.4327915573948459, "harris2p_2024_2024record_weighted": 0.4271299693013135, "remainder_only": 0.36102392045658394 }, "B1": { "projected_total": 7906095.647759779, "remainder_by_party": { "R": 1690640.6441353168, "D": 794759.3567558709, "NPA": 612058.8661881441, "minor": 82143.78068044758 }, "negative_remainder": false, "harris2p_2024_all_ballots": 0.4328332710857828, "harris2p_2024_2024record_weighted": 0.42717662034389364, "remainder_only": 0.3548620326698035 }, "midpoint_mean_P0_B1": { "projected_total": 8044891.823879888, 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