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RedBox Research

What we found

17 findings from our 31 October polls of likely voters, October 20–23, 2026.

  1. Finding 1

    60% of Democrats in our polls want Schumer replaced, versus 37% for Jeffries.

    60.1%

    of Democrats in our 31 October polls want someone other than Chuck Schumer to lead the Senate

    14,075 responses from 9,830 likely voters · margin of error ±1.6 points

    The two shares count Democrats who explicitly want someone else for each leadership position. Overlapping intervals remain tied or split. Pooled across our 31 separate state and district polls; not a national sample. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The questions, as asked

    If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else?
    Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?
    If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, should Chuck Schumer become Majority Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else?

    The polls

    All 31 of our October polls

  2. Finding 2

    Democrats under 45 in our polls favor replacing Jeffries over making him Speaker, 47% to 22%.

    47.1%

    of Democrats under 45 in our 31 October polls want someone other than Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker

    3,050 responses from 2,256 likely voters · margin of error ±3.2 points

    0 point-estimate replacement majorities and 14 replacement pluralities. Jeffries is the top answer in 17 polls, with 0 keep majorities. Point-estimate top answers are descriptive counts; overlapping intervals remain tied or split. Plurality means larger than each other answer, not their sum. Indifference and unknowns are not replacement votes. Pooled across our 31 separate state and district polls; not a national sample. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The questions, as asked

    What is your age?
    If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else?
    Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?

    The polls

    All 31 of our October polls

  3. Finding 3

    Younger Democrats in our polls are more eager to change the party’s direction, 67% versus 48% among older Democrats.

    67.5%

    of Democrats under 45 in our 31 October polls want Democrats to change direction

    3,050 responses from 2,256 likely voters · margin of error ±3.0 points

    Under 45 versus 45 and older; missing ages excluded. A plurality must not be described as a majority. Pooled across our 31 separate state and district polls; not a national sample. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The questions, as asked

    What is your age?
    Should Democrats in Congress stay on their current course, or change direction?
    If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else?
    Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?

    The polls

    All 31 of our October polls

  4. Finding 4

    24% of Black Democrats in our polls want Jeffries replaced, while 58% want him as Speaker.

    23.6%

    of Black Democrats in our 31 October polls want someone other than Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker

    1,088 responses from 717 likely voters · margin of error ±4.3 points

    Black means Black and not Hispanic; explicit Democratic self-ID is also required. Race is self-reported in all 38,815 poll-respondent records. 56% of this pooled Black Democratic record base comes from North Carolina and Florida state and district polls. The base includes repeat appearances across state and district polls. Pooling does not license individual small-cell publication. Pooled across our 31 separate state and district polls; not a national sample. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The questions, as asked

    Are you Hispanic or Latino?
    If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else?
    Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?
    How would you describe your racial background?

    The polls

    Arizona statewide, AZ-01, AZ-06, CA-07, CA-11, CA-48, Florida statewide, FL-13, FL-14, FL-22, FL-25, FL-27, Kansas statewide, Michigan statewide, MI-04, MI-10, North Carolina statewide, NC-01, NC-11, Nevada statewide, NV-03, NY-17, Ohio statewide, OH-01, OH-07, OH-09, PA-01, PA-07, PA-08, PA-10

  5. Finding 5

    Florida independents back Jolly 58% to 32%, while the overall governor’s race is split.

    58.0%

    of Independents (self-identified) in FL support David Jolly, Democrat

    1,346 likely voters · margin of error ±6.2 points

    Florida governor preferences among independents and all likely voters. Groups overlap; no independent-versus-all significance claim is made. Independents (self-identified). Independent means the literal party_identity answer Independent; self-ID only. No voter-file fallback or leaner reassignment. Another party is excluded. Democratic, Republican and independent splits use separate self-identification categories. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The questions, as asked

    If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for?
    Who did you vote for in this year's general election for Governor?
    Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?

    The poll

  6. Finding 6

    Shapiro draws about 10% of Trump’s 2024 voters in three Pennsylvania districts.

    9.6%

    of likely voters who recall voting for Trump in 2024 in PA-07 support Josh Shapiro, Democrat

    241 likely voters · margin of error ±4.3 points

    Shapiro’s district intervals overlap: no strongest district or statistical ranking is claimed. Lombardo and Fitzpatrick must not be ranked by point estimates alone. Wins refers to stated survey support, not a forecast. Same-party contests are separate. A statewide office measured inside a district is a district-only reading; there is no Pennsylvania statewide poll in this set. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The questions, as asked

    If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for?
    Who did you vote for in this year's general election for Governor?
    If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for?
    Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives?
    Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?
    Who did you vote for in the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, or did you not vote?

    The polls

  7. Finding 7

    PA-07 voters who say they’ve already voted favor Brooks 67% to 24%.

    67.5%

    of likely voters who say they already voted in PA-07 support Bob Brooks, Democrat

    224 likely voters · margin of error ±7.4 points

    Already voted is self-report, not verified returns or a forecast of remaining voters. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The questions, as asked

    If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for?
    Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives?
    How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 general election in {place}?

    The poll

  8. Finding 8

    OH-07 voters under 45 are more likely to back Poindexter, 68% versus 39% among older voters.

    67.7%

    of likely voters under 45 in OH-07 support Brian Poindexter, Democrat

    135 likely voters · margin of error ±9.3 points

    Cross-sectional age association, not individual persuasion. Missing age excluded. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The questions, as asked

    What is your age?
    If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for?
    Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives?

    The poll

  9. Finding 9

    Holscher’s Kansas support divides by education, 62% among voters with at least a bachelor’s degree versus 34% among those without one.

    62.1%

    of likely voters with a bachelor’s or graduate degree in KS support Cindy Holscher, Democrat

    721 likely voters · margin of error ±6.0 points

    College = bachelor or graduate degree; noncollege = answered lower categories, including vocational and associate degrees. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The questions, as asked

    What is the highest level of school you have completed?
    If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for?
    Who did you vote for in this year's general election for Governor?

    The poll

  10. Finding 10

    Unfavorable views of health insurers cross party lines in our polls, 81% of Democrats and 63% of Republicans.

    81.4%

    of Democrats in our 31 October polls view health insurance companies unfavorably

    14,075 responses from 9,830 likely voters · margin of error ±1.3 points

    Strongly plus somewhat unfavorable; unfamiliar and unknown answers remain in the denominator. Independents (self-identified). Independent means the literal party_identity answer Independent; self-ID only. No voter-file fallback or leaner reassignment. Another party is excluded. Democratic, Republican and independent splits use separate self-identification categories. Pooled across our 31 separate state and district polls; not a national sample. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The questions, as asked

    Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of health insurance companies?
    Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?

    The polls

    All 31 of our October polls

  11. Finding 11

    Support for government businesses is 34% with USPS and TVA examples, versus 21% without them, in our polls.

    34.5%

    of all likely voters in our 31 October polls support government businesses when asked with USPS and TVA examples

    19,102 responses from 13,010 likely voters · margin of error ±1.3 points

    Examples have higher support in 31 of 31 reportable polls; 28 pointwise gap intervals exclude zero in that direction. Disjoint randomized wording arms with their own saved weights. Descriptive pooled difference, not a national treatment effect. Do not combine arms into one topline. Pooled across our 31 separate state and district polls; not a national sample. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The questions, as asked

    Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this?
    Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. Two that exist today: the U.S. Postal Service, which delivers packages alongside private companies like UPS and FedEx, and the Tennessee Valley Authority, a federally owned company that sells electricity. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this?

    The polls

    All 31 of our October polls

  12. Finding 12

    Schumer is underwater in our polls, with 65% disapproving and 27% approving.

    27.2%

    of all likely voters in our 31 October polls approve of Chuck Schumer

    38,815 responses from 26,607 likely voters · margin of error ±0.9 points

    All likely voters, regardless of party identity. Approve combines strongly and somewhat approve; disapprove combines strongly and somewhat disapprove. Unknown answers remain in the denominator. Underwater counts compare point estimates, not a claim of separation where intervals overlap. Job approval is distinct from preference for replacing the Senate leader. Pooled across our 31 separate state and district polls; not a national sample. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The question, as asked

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader?

    The polls

    All 31 of our October polls

  13. Finding 13

    Florida independents back Nixon 55% to 32%, even as Moody leads the overall Senate poll.

    55.1%

    of Independents (self-identified) in FL support Angie Nixon, Democrat

    1,346 likely voters · margin of error ±6.3 points

    Exploratory subgroup comparison selected after examining the October polls; pointwise intervals are not adjusted for that search. Subgroup and overall samples overlap. No independent-versus-all significance claim is made. Independents (self-identified). Independent means the literal party_identity answer Independent; self-ID only. No voter-file fallback or leaner reassignment. Another party is excluded. Democratic, Republican and independent splits use separate self-identification categories. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The questions, as asked

    Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?
    If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?
    Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. Senate?

    The poll

  14. Finding 14

    MT-01 independents back Forstag 60% to 33%, while the overall House race is split.

    60.3%

    of Independents (self-identified) in MT-01 support Sam Forstag, Democrat

    280 likely voters · margin of error ±7.4 points

    Exploratory subgroup comparison selected after examining the October polls; pointwise intervals are not adjusted for that search. Montana has no party registration: independent is self-ID only. Subgroup and overall samples overlap; no independent-versus-all significance claim is made. Independents (self-identified). Independent means the literal party_identity answer Independent; self-ID only. No voter-file fallback or leaner reassignment. Another party is excluded. Democratic, Republican and independent splits use separate self-identification categories. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The questions, as asked

    If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for?
    Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives?
    Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?

    The poll

  15. Finding 15

    Michigan voters under 45 are more likely to back El-Sayed, 63% versus 43% among older voters.

    62.9%

    of likely voters under 45 in MI support Abdul El-Sayed, Democrat

    446 likely voters · margin of error ±9.3 points

    Exploratory subgroup comparison selected after examining the October polls; pointwise intervals are not adjusted for that search. Age associations are cross-sectional, not individual persuasion or a forecast. Missing ages excluded. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The questions, as asked

    What is your age?
    If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?
    Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. Senate?

    The poll

  16. Finding 16

    Davis’s support in NC-01 divides by race, 85% among Black voters and 32% among White voters.

    84.9%

    of Black non-Hispanic likely voters in NC-01 support Don Davis, Democrat

    186 likely voters · margin of error ±6.2 points

    Exploratory subgroup comparison selected after examining the October polls; pointwise intervals are not adjusted for that search. Black and White groups are non-Hispanic; Hispanic and other race groups are separate and are not shown in this comparison. Race is self-reported in all 38,815 poll-respondent records. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The questions, as asked

    Are you Hispanic or Latino?
    If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for?
    Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives?
    How would you describe your racial background?

    The poll

  17. Finding 17

    Conley’s NY-17 support divides by education, 59% among voters with at least a bachelor’s degree versus 35% among those without one.

    59.3%

    of likely voters with a bachelor’s or graduate degree in NY-17 support Cait Conley, Democrat

    509 likely voters · margin of error ±5.3 points

    Exploratory subgroup comparison selected after examining the October polls; pointwise intervals are not adjusted for that search. College = bachelor or graduate degree; noncollege = answered lower categories, including vocational and associate degrees. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

    The questions, as asked

    What is the highest level of school you have completed?
    If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for?
    Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives?

    The poll

Each margin of error is at 95% confidence, in points, from the finding's own effective sample size. Polling center · How we poll