Conley’s NY-17 support divides by education, 59% among voters with at least a bachelor’s degree versus 35% among those without one.

509 likely voters · margin of error ±5.3 points

Exploratory subgroup comparison selected after examining the October polls; pointwise intervals are not adjusted for that search. College = bachelor or graduate degree; noncollege = answered lower categories, including vocational and associate degrees. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

59.3% of likely voters with a bachelor’s or graduate degree in NY-17 support Cait Conley, Democrat (95% margin of error ±5.3 points; n=509, 509 distinct people, effective n=329.2). 35.5% of likely voters with a bachelor’s or graduate degree in NY-17 support Mike Lawler, Republican (95% margin of error ±5.2 points; n=509, 509 distinct people, effective n=329.2). 34.7% of likely voters without a bachelor’s degree in NY-17 support Cait Conley, Democrat (95% margin of error ±7.4 points; n=199, 199 distinct people, effective n=156.9). 59.0% of likely voters without a bachelor’s degree in NY-17 support Mike Lawler, Republican (95% margin of error ±7.7 points; n=199, 199 distinct people, effective n=156.9). The featured estimate uses 509 responses from 509 distinct people, with an effective sample size of 329.2. Exploratory subgroup comparison selected after examining the October polls; pointwise intervals are not adjusted for that search. College = bachelor or graduate degree; noncollege = answered lower categories, including vocational and associate degrees. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.