Shapiro draws about 10% of Trump’s 2024 voters in three Pennsylvania districts.

241 likely voters · margin of error ±4.3 points

Shapiro’s district intervals overlap: no strongest district or statistical ranking is claimed. Lombardo and Fitzpatrick must not be ranked by point estimates alone. Wins refers to stated survey support, not a forecast. Same-party contests are separate. A statewide office measured inside a district is a district-only reading; there is no Pennsylvania statewide poll in this set. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

9.6% of likely voters who recall voting for Trump in 2024 in PA-07 support Josh Shapiro, Democrat (95% margin of error ±4.3 points; n=241, 241 distinct people, effective n=176.9). 11.3% of likely voters who recall voting for Trump in 2024 in PA-08 support Josh Shapiro, Democrat (95% margin of error ±4.2 points; n=302, 302 distinct people, effective n=214.2). 11.0% of likely voters who recall voting for Trump in 2024 in PA-10 support Josh Shapiro, Democrat (95% margin of error ±3.9 points; n=342, 342 distinct people, effective n=249.0). 7.1% of likely voters who recall voting for Harris in 2024 in NV-03 support Joseph Lombardo, Republican (95% margin of error ±3.8 points; n=353, 353 distinct people, effective n=174.1). 7.0% of likely voters who recall voting for Harris in 2024 in PA-01 support Brian Fitzpatrick, Republican (95% margin of error ±3.0 points; n=444, 444 distinct people, effective n=272.5). The featured estimate uses 241 responses from 241 distinct people, with an effective sample size of 176.9. Shapiro’s district intervals overlap: no strongest district or statistical ranking is claimed. Lombardo and Fitzpatrick must not be ranked by point estimates alone. Wins refers to stated survey support, not a forecast. Same-party contests are separate. A statewide office measured inside a district is a district-only reading; there is no Pennsylvania statewide poll in this set. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.