MT-01 independents back Forstag 60% to 33%; Flint has a narrow lead overall, 48% to 46%.

280 likely voters · margin of error ±7.4 points

Exploratory subgroup comparison selected after examining the October polls; pointwise intervals are not adjusted for that search. Montana has no party registration: independent is self-ID only. Subgroup and overall samples overlap; no independent-versus-all significance claim is made. Independents (self-identified). Independent means the literal party_identity answer Independent; self-ID only. No voter-file fallback or leaner reassignment. Another party is excluded. Democratic, Republican and independent splits use separate self-identification categories. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.

60.3% of Independents (self-identified) in MT-01 support Sam Forstag, Democrat (95% margin of error ±7.4 points; n=280, 280 distinct people, effective n=166.2). 33.1% of Independents (self-identified) in MT-01 support Aaron Flint, Republican (95% margin of error ±7.2 points; n=280, 280 distinct people, effective n=166.2). 46.0% of all likely voters in MT-01 support Sam Forstag, Democrat (95% margin of error ±4.6 points; n=754, 754 distinct people, effective n=447.4). 48.0% of all likely voters in MT-01 support Aaron Flint, Republican (95% margin of error ±4.6 points; n=754, 754 distinct people, effective n=447.4). The featured estimate uses 280 responses from 280 distinct people, with an effective sample size of 166.2. Exploratory subgroup comparison selected after examining the October polls; pointwise intervals are not adjusted for that search. Montana has no party registration: independent is self-ID only. Subgroup and overall samples overlap; no independent-versus-all significance claim is made. Independents (self-identified). Independent means the literal party_identity answer Independent; self-ID only. No voter-file fallback or leaner reassignment. Another party is excluded. Democratic, Republican and independent splits use separate self-identification categories. Likely voters in the named October state and district polls; not a national sample or forecast. Pooled figures are respondent-proportional descriptive summaries of separate electorates. Each poll’s subgroup weights are normalized to its answered-question n; repeated people remain in record n but their weights are collapsed for Kish effective n. MOEs are approximate pointwise 95% half-widths in percentage points, without adjustment for exploratory multiple comparisons. They do not include all coverage, nonresponse, recall, calibration or selection uncertainty. Wald intervals can extend outside percentage bounds; an observed zero is not a population zero. Unknown and indifferent answers remain in denominators. Fewer than 50 distinct people is suppressed; 50–99 means interpret with caution.