Run the polls
138 polls of registered voters in the districts and states of the members who choose the leaders. Should Hakeem Jeffries be Speaker and Chuck Schumer Majority Leader, or someone else?
Who should lead Democrats in Congress?
Ask their voters
We poll the members’ own districts and states, run the ads in Washington, and show every member that the support for new leadership is broad and deep.
The plan
Poll it. Show it. Make it impossible to miss.
Run the ads
In Washington, where members and their staff will see them: cable news, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook, X and a billboard truck on the Hill. Every ad is built to read on a muted TV.
Show the support is broad and deep
District by district and state by state: the voters who sent these members to Congress want new leadership. In October, voters chose someone other than Schumer, and someone other than Jeffries, in all 31 of our polls.
Push it out
Every result goes to reporters and online, with the full crosstabs, so no member can say they didn't see it.
What it costs
$472,000–$475,000 for the polls and the ads
The polls
$443,000
At the usual price
$3,450,000–$4,140,000
The same 138 polls at $25,000 to $30,000 each, what a quality poll usually costs: 8 to 9 times what ours cost.
“Quality polling can cost anywhere from $25,000 to $30,000 or more”: Peter Schorsch, publisher of Florida Politics, in USA TODAY - Florida, Oct. 29, 2026.
- 138 polls, 134,366 voters interviewed
- 1,000 in each district and state (±3.1 points); 18 smaller districts as many as their voter lists allow
- Registered voters from the voter file, reached by text
- Cell-phone numbers for each sample, then texting
Numbers from each member’s own voters, not national averages, in neutral wording, by the pollster whose record is below. The polls run in waves, a group of states at a time, as funding comes in.
The ads in Washington
$29,000–$32,000
- Every day through the House Democrats’ leadership vote
- Cable news, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook and X
- A billboard truck on the Hill
Aimed at the people who work in the Capitol and in Washington politics. Then again before Senate Democrats choose their leader.
What the ads cost, line by line
| $5,000–$6,500 | An LED billboard truck, 8 hours a day for 7 days, on the Hill and at the Nov 18 vote |
| $7,960–$9,344 | DC-zone cable: two 30-second spots on CNN, Fox News and MS NOW each morning and lunchtime |
| $7,000 | Instagram and Facebook in the core DC ZIP codes, $1,000 a day |
| $7,000 | YouTube on the CNN, Fox News and MS NOW channels, $1,000 a day |
| $2,100 | X, $300 a day |
| Price requested | Punchbowl and Politico Playbook sponsorships, Nov 16 to 18 (prices requested) |
$472,000–$475,000in all
Fund it on ActBlueWhere we poll
138 polls, in the places these members answer to
Show
138 polls in 22 states. Each state's statewide poll comes first, then its districts.
31California
Statewide poll
- CA-01Mike McGuireFlipped seat
- CA-02Jared HuffmanProgressive Caucus
- CA-04Eric Jones *New progressive
- CA-06Richard PanFlipped seat
- CA-08John GaramendiProgressive Caucus
- CA-10Mark DeSaulnierProgressive Caucus
- CA-12Lateefah SimonCBC + CPC
- CA-14Aisha WahabProgressive Caucus
- CA-15Kevin MullinProgressive Caucus
- CA-17Ro KhannaProgressive Caucus
- CA-19Jimmy PanettaProgressive Caucus
- CA-22Randy VillegasNew progressive
- CA-28Judy ChuProgressive Caucus
- CA-29Luz Rivas
- CA-30Laura FriedmanProgressive Caucus
- CA-32Brad ShermanProgressive Caucus
- CA-34Angela Gonzales-TorresNew progressive
- CA-36Ted LieuProgressive Caucus
- CA-37Sydney Kamlager-DoveCBC + CPC
- CA-38Hilda Solis
- CA-39Mark TakanoProgressive Caucus
- CA-41Linda Sanchez
- CA-42Robert GarciaProgressive Caucus
- CA-43Maxine WatersCBC + CPC
- CA-44Nanette Barragan
- CA-47Dave MinProgressive Caucus
- CA-48Marni Von WilpertFlipped seat
- CA-49Mike LevinProgressive Caucus
- CA-51Sara JacobsProgressive Caucus
- CA-52Juan VargasProgressive Caucus
12New York
Statewide poll
- NY-05Gregory W. MeeksBlack Caucus
- NY-06Grace MengProgressive Caucus
- NY-07Claire ValdezNew progressive
- NY-08Hakeem JeffriesLeader
- NY-09Yvette ClarkeCBC + CPC
- NY-10Brad LanderNew progressive
- NY-13Darializa Avila ChevalierNew progressive
- NY-14Alexandria Ocasio-CortezProgressive Caucus
- NY-15Ritchie TorresBlack Caucus
- NY-17Cait ConleyFlipped seat
- NY-20Paul TonkoProgressive Caucus
11Pennsylvania
Statewide poll
- PA-01Robert HarvieFlipped seat
- PA-02Brendan Boyle
- PA-03Christopher RabbNew progressive
- PA-04Madeleine DeanProgressive Caucus
- PA-05Mary ScanlonProgressive Caucus
- PA-07Bob BrooksNew progressive
- PA-08Paige CognettiFlipped seat
- PA-10Janelle StelsonFlipped seat
- PA-12Summer LeeCBC + CPC
- PA-17Christopher Deluzio
10North Carolina
Statewide poll: new senator Roy Cooper
- NC-01Don DavisBlack Caucus
- NC-04Valerie FousheeCBC + CPC
- NC-05Chuck Hubbard *Flipped seat
- NC-06Cyril JeffersonFlipped seat
- NC-09Richard OjedaFlipped seat
- NC-11Jamie AgerFlipped seat
- NC-12Alma AdamsCBC + CPC
- NC-13Paul BarringerFlipped seat
- NC-14LaKesha WomackFlipped seat
8Illinois
Statewide poll: new senator Juliana Stratton
- IL-01Jonathan JacksonCBC + CPC
- IL-02Donna MillerBlack Caucus
- IL-03Delia RamirezProgressive Caucus
- IL-04Patty Garcia
- IL-07La FordBlack Caucus
- IL-09Daniel BissProgressive Caucus
- IL-14Lauren UnderwoodBlack Caucus
7Michigan
Statewide poll: new senator Abdul El-Sayed
- MI-04Sean McCannFlipped seat
- MI-06Debbie DingellProgressive Caucus
- MI-07William LawrenceNew progressive
- MI-10Christina HinesFlipped seat
- MI-12Rashida TlaibProgressive Caucus
- MI-13Donavan McKinneyNew progressive
7Ohio
Statewide poll: new senator Sherrod Brown
- OH-03Joyce BeattyBlack Caucus
- OH-07Brian PoindexterFlipped seat
- OH-10Kristina KnickerbockerFlipped seat
- OH-11Shontel BrownCBC + CPC
- OH-13Emilia SykesBlack Caucus
- OH-15Don LeonardFlipped seat
6Colorado
Statewide poll
- CO-01Melat KirosNew progressive
- CO-02Joe NeguseCBC + CPC
- CO-04Eileen Laubacher *Flipped seat
- CO-05Jessica KillinFlipped seat
- CO-08Manny RutinelFlipped seat
6Georgia
Statewide poll
- GA-02Sanford D. BishopBlack Caucus
- GA-04Hank JohnsonCBC + CPC
- GA-05Nikema WilliamsCBC + CPC
- GA-06Lucy McBathBlack Caucus
- GA-13Jasmine Clark
6Virginia
Statewide poll
- VA-01Shannon TaylorFlipped seat
- VA-02Elaine LuriaFlipped seat
- VA-03Bobby ScottBlack Caucus
- VA-04Jennifer McClellanCBC + CPC
- VA-08Donald Beyer
5Arizona
Statewide poll
- AZ-01Amish ShahFlipped seat
- AZ-03Yassamin AnsariProgressive Caucus
- AZ-06Joanna MendozaFlipped seat
- AZ-07Adelita Grijalva
5Florida
Statewide poll
- FL-09Darren Soto *
- FL-10Maxwell FrostCBC + CPC
- FL-22Pia DandiyaFlipped seat
- FL-24Oliver GilbertBlack Caucus
4Maryland
Statewide poll
- MD-04Glenn IveyBlack Caucus
- MD-07Kweisi MfumeCBC + CPC
- MD-08Jamie RaskinProgressive Caucus
4Missouri
Statewide poll
- MO-01Wesley BellBlack Caucus
- MO-02Fred WellmanFlipped seat
- MO-05Emanuel CleaverBlack Caucus
3Connecticut
Statewide poll
- CT-03Rosa DeLauro
- CT-05Jahana HayesBlack Caucus
3Indiana
Statewide poll
- IN-05J. D. FordFlipped seat
- IN-07André CarsonCBC + CPC
3Nevada
Statewide poll
- NV-02Teresa Benitez-ThompsonFlipped seat
- NV-04Steven HorsfordCBC + CPC
2Mississippi
Statewide poll: new senator Scott Colom *
- MS-02Bennie ThompsonBlack Caucus
2Rhode Island
Statewide poll
- RI-01Gabe AmoBlack Caucus
1Kansas
Statewide poll: new senator Adam Hamilton
1Montana
- MT-01Samuel ForstagFlipped seat
1Vermont
Statewide poll
* Scott Colom leads 49.1% to 48.8%, not yet called; Eric Jones leads 52.3% to 47.7%, not yet called; Eileen Laubacher leads 48.8% to 47.9%, not yet called; Chuck Hubbard leads 48.70% to 48.66%, not yet called; Darren Soto leads 50.3% to 49.7%, not yet called.
Our record
Why members can trust these numbers
On average, our polls came closer than the other pollsters, and closer than polls usually do.
Picked the winner
Us84%Polls since 199878%27 of 32 general-election races
How far off: us vs. other pollsters
Us5 pointsOther pollsters6 pointsAverage points off in the 11 races we both polled. We came closer in 5.
How far off: us vs. polls since 1998
Us5 pointsPolls since 19986 pointsAverage points between each poll’s margin and the actual vote, in our general-election races.
Primaries: we picked the winner in 8 of 10. In the 4 races other pollsters also polled, we missed by 10 points on average and they missed by 14.
From 31 general-election polls and 5 primary polls, each published before Election Day.
Polls since 1998: Silver Bulletin’s database of polls in the last three weeks before an election.
Show them their voters have their back
Members who question the leadership will be pressed to fall in line. The strongest answer they can give is what their own voters think. Help us put it in front of them.