Picked the winner
Us84%Polls since 199878%27 of 32 general-election races
RedBox Research
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How accurate we are
On average, our polls came closer than the other pollsters, and closer than polls usually do.
How far off: us vs. other pollsters
Us5 pointsOther pollsters6 pointsAverage points off in the 14 races we both polled. We came closer in 8.
How far off: us vs. polls since 1998
Us5 pointsPolls since 19986 pointsAverage points between each poll’s margin and the actual vote, in our general-election races.
Primaries: we picked the winner in 8 of 10. In the 4 races other pollsters also polled, we missed by 10 points on average and they missed by 14.
From 31 general-election polls and 5 primary polls, each published before Election Day.
Polls since 1998: Silver Bulletin’s database of polls in the last three weeks before an election.
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