Rhode Island Democratic Primary

These are later reconstructions using the recorded models and final response set. They do not replace the published poll above.

A: Raw responses · 1,412 interviews

B: Frozen original weighted · 1,412 interviews

C: Siena-style turnout model (partial) · 1,412 interviews

D: Model D · L2/Census likely-electorate model · 1,412 interviews

Field dates: September 4–8, 2026. 1,405 completed interviews among likely Democratic-primary voters. These are the original published Model D percentages, preserved from the September 9 website archive. Already-voted respondents reported their vote; other qualified likely voters reported their current choice. Weighting used the L2/Census likely-electorate model. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place. Crosstab estimates with insufficient raw or effective subgroup bases are withheld. The later September 14 reanalysis does not replace this public record.

Response rate 1 (RR1)

0.5%

Response rate 3 (RR3)

0.5%

Cooperation rate 1 (COOP1)

11.0%

Refusal rate 1 (REF1)

4.2%

Contact rate 1 (CON1)

4.7%

e = 0.9564: proportional allocation (the default of AAPOR Survey Outcome Rate Calculator 5.1 (2023), List Samples sheet) over the 13,419 cases whose eligibility was settled by contact (12,834 eligible, 585 screened out). Duplicate listings are left out because the frame check removed them from every drawn case. The questionnaire has no eligibility screener, and the Standard Definitions treat an unreached named-list case as eligible when none is required.

Rates use the formulas of the AAPOR Survey Outcome Rate Calculator 5.1 (2023), List Samples sheet; RR1 counts every drawn voter except duplicate listings.

Data collection strategy (AAPOR A1)

A survey of Likely voters in the September 9, 2026 Rhode Island Democratic primary. Collection: Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey.

Who collected the interviews (AAPOR A2)

RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit, drew the sample and collected the interviews itself; no outside fieldwork vendor collected interviews.

Wording shown or read before the questions (AAPOR A3)

Invitation text (wave 1), 83,100 sent: "Hi {first_name}, As a {locality} voter, share your views in a RedBox Research survey (about {survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end; HELP for help."

Invitation text (wave 1), 9,595 sent: "Hi {first_name}, RedBox Research is polling {locality} voters about the {election_name}. Share your opinion ({survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end; HELP for help."

Invitation text (wave 1), 9,418 sent: "Hi {first_name}, We are looking for insight from {community} voters. Take a {survey_minutes} MIN RedBox Research poll: {survey_url} Reply STOP to end; HELP for help."

Invitation text (wave 1), 9,169 sent: "Hi {first_name}, As a {locality} voter, share your views in a Red Box Research survey (about {survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end; HELP for help."

Invitation text (wave 1), 9,099 sent: "Hi {first_name}, Red Box Research invites you to share your views in our voter survey (about {survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end; HELP for help."

Invitation text (wave 1), 9,069 sent: "Hi {first_name}, Help represent voters like you in a Red Box Research voter survey (about {survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end; HELP for help."

Invitation text (wave 1), 9,051 sent: "Hi {first_name}, Share your views on the {election_name} in a Red Box Research survey (about {survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end; HELP for help."

Invitation text (wave 1), 9,023 sent: "Hi {first_name}, Red Box Research voter survey ({survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} STOP to end. HELP for help."

Invitation text (wave 1), 8,974 sent: "Hi {first_name}, Make your voice heard in a Red Box Research voter survey (about {survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end; HELP for help."

Invitation text (wave 1), 5,145 sent: "Hi {first_name}, A political text that does not want your money. RedBox Research just wants your opinion ({survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end; HELP for help."

Reminder text (wave 2), 6,754 sent: "Hi {first_name}, As a {locality} voter, share your views in a RedBox Research survey (about {survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end; HELP for help."

Reminder text (wave 3), 187 sent: "Hi {first_name}, As a {locality} voter, share your views in a RedBox Research survey (about {survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end; HELP for help."

Reminder texts (wave 2), 11,370 sent from 5 templates whose wording is not stored with the poll.

Words in braces were filled in for each recipient when the text was sent.

Introduction: the frozen questionnaire has no welcome screen, so the survey opened on its first question.

The survey was self-administered on the web: there was no interviewer or AI script.

Likely voters (AAPOR A4)

The interview ended, and the respondent is not in the results, for anyone who answered Q1 “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure” or Q1 “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure” or Q1 “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure” or Q1 “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”. No likely-voter adjustment was applied to the weights.

Sample type (AAPOR A5a)

A probability sample: every voter was drawn at random, with a recorded seed, from the voter-file universe named in the disclosure. No response was generated by AI (no synthetic respondents were used).

Sample frame and its date (AAPOR A5b)

Voters were drawn from the AFWH voter file, built from the Rhode Island official state voter registration file dated July 8, 2026 (received July 8, 2026), for 271,405 drawn voters. Telephone numbers: of the 161,643 voters sent an invitation or called, 80,006 at a number on the official voter file; 63,658 at numbers L2 appended to the voter record (orders 132496 and 132537); 17,979 at a number both the official voter file and L2 held.

Coverage (AAPOR A5c)

161,058 of the 270,820 drawn voters (59.5%) had a textable number and were sent an invitation; the other 109,762 could not be reached by text and are counted as not attempted (AAPOR 3.23).

Quotas (AAPOR A5e)

Sample draws were sized to 316 target cells. 585 cases were screened out or stopped for a full cell.

Incentives and contact (AAPOR A5i)

No incentive is recorded for this poll, and Pollster has no step that pays or promises one; the wording of the texts sent is under A3. Contact: an invitation text and up to 2 reminder texts.

Modes (AAPOR A6)

Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey. Language: English.

Interviews by frame and mode (AAPOR A8a)

Completed interviews by frame: RI-01 2026 Democratic Primary — outside Providence 606; RI-02 2026 Democratic Primary — outside Providence 609; RI-01 + Providence Mayor 2026 Democratic Primary 106; RI-02 + Providence Mayor 2026 Democratic Primary 91. By mode: web 1,412.

Margin of error (AAPOR A8c)

The margin of error is shown because the sample was drawn at random; with a low response rate it holds only as far as weighting corrects nonresponse.

Quality checks (AAPOR A10)

Each invited voter received a unique survey link; a link yields at most one interview. Quality flags recorded: 175 duplicate submissions. Flags are measured, not used to drop cases: all 1,412 interviews completed by the status date are in the weighted estimates.

Total error (AAPOR A11)

The margins of error describe sampling error with the design effect; they are not widened for other sources of error. The margin of error on the gap between two candidates is roughly twice the poll's margin of error; each race's own figure is given in the fine print with its result.

AI use (AAPOR A12)

(a) Task performed by AI: none in data collection; no AI interviewer or chatbot was used (Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey). AI in processing: No language model coded, weighted or wrote any published result; every published number and sentence is produced by deterministic code from the recorded responses. (b) Human oversight or validation: not applicable; no AI output enters the data or the published results.

Panel (AAPOR B1)

No panel: respondents were drawn fresh from the voter file for this poll.

Dispositions (AAPOR B5)

Standard: AAPOR Standard Definitions, 10th edition (2023), list samples: section 1.3 (phone surveys of named persons) and section 1.6 (SMS surveys of named persons).

Final dispositions of the 271,405 drawn cases:

1.1 Complete interview: 1,412

2.1121 Opened the survey, answered no question: 2

2.1133 Replied STOP to the invitation: 8,713

2.12 Break-off: started the survey (web link or phone) and stopped before completing it: 2,707

3.20 Invitation delivered, no response: 128,383

3.219 Invitation not delivered: 1,962

3.23 Not attempted: no invitation sent and no call dialed: 109,762

3.9 Invitation sent, no delivery status returned: 17,879

4.1 Screened out as not eligible: 585

Outcome rates: RR1 0.5%; RR3 0.5%; COOP1 11.0%; REF1 4.2%; CON1 4.7%.

179,954 text invitations sent, 0 calls dialed.

Text message to the web survey: 161,643 cases attempted. RR1 0.9%; RR3 0.9%; COOP1 11.0%; REF1 7.1%; CON1 8.0%.

Each mode counts only the people it tried to reach and only the interviews completed in that mode: a voter texted who then finished by phone is a text non-complete and a phone complete. Each mode's RR3 uses the release's e.

Each voter's final disposition is the most informative outcome across every text and call (AAPOR Standard Definitions, 10th edition, pp. 9 and 13): a complete in either mode, then a screen-out, then a refusal or break-off, then the most informative unreached outcome.

e = 0.9564: proportional allocation (the default of AAPOR Survey Outcome Rate Calculator 5.1 (2023), List Samples sheet) over the 13,419 cases whose eligibility was settled by contact (12,834 eligible, 585 screened out). Duplicate listings are left out because the frame check removed them from every drawn case. The questionnaire has no eligibility screener, and the Standard Definitions treat an unreached named-list case as eligible when none is required.

Rhode Island Democratic Primary Poll 2026

Version 1 · Published Sep 9, 2026

Release: 5c510fbd1

Source checksum: f2898e10a126920f2a27f6d7df0c79a6efa700d3cd6c16a8cb172a997bc00cf9