RedBox Research · 2026

Delaware Democratic Primary

Initial resultsPublished Sep 13, 20261,160 interviewsRegistered voters

Survey results

Population: Registered voters. No validated respondent-level likely-voter component was applied, so these estimates describe registered voters, weighted to the modeled likely-electorate composition.

Likely voters: None (not validated).

Weighted responses. Undecided answers are shown separately. A lead is called only when it is larger than the sampling margin widened by a 90% total-error band; otherwise it is within error.

Attorney General

Attorney General ballot choice

Lead called Kathy Jennings leads Dwayne J. Bensing, 51.4% to 13.1% (n = 1,087; the poll's margin of error ±3.3 points). Other answers, including undecided: 35.5%.

Question details

Response	Percent	Interviews	95% margin	Note
Kathy Jennings	51.4%	578	±3.4 pp
Undecided	24.5%	260	±2.9 pp
Dwayne J. Bensing	13.1%	132	±2.3 pp
Prefer not to answer	2.9%	36	±1.1 pp
Someone else	2.7%	29	±1.1 pp	Small sample
Would not vote in this race	2.6%	28	±1.1 pp	Small sample
Patty Rickman	2.3%	18	±1.0 pp	Small sample
Did not vote in this race	0.5%	6	±0.5 pp	Small sample

Kathy Jennings51.4%

Undecided24.5%

Dwayne J. Bensing13.1%

Prefer not to answer2.9%

Someone else · Small sample2.7%

Would not vote in this race · Small sample2.6%

Patty Rickman · Small sample2.3%

Did not vote in this race · Small sample0.5%

U.S. Senate

U.S. Senator ballot choice

Lead called Chris Coons leads Jeff Appelhans, 63.8% to 5.7% (n = 1,099; the poll's margin of error ±3.3 points). Other answers, including undecided: 30.5%.

Question details

Response	Percent	Interviews	95% margin	Note
Chris Coons	63.8%	728	±3.2 pp
Undecided	16.9%	180	±2.5 pp
Jeff Appelhans	5.7%	52	±1.6 pp
Mary Louve	3.8%	30	±1.3 pp
Would not vote in this race	2.9%	30	±1.1 pp
Someone else	2.6%	31	±1.1 pp
E. No-Trump Hansen	2.1%	22	±1.0 pp	Small sample
Prefer not to answer	1.9%	22	±0.9 pp	Small sample
Did not vote in this race	0.4%	4	±0.4 pp	Small sample

Chris Coons63.8%

Undecided16.9%

Jeff Appelhans5.7%

Mary Louve3.8%

Would not vote in this race2.9%

Someone else2.6%

E. No-Trump Hansen · Small sample2.1%

Prefer not to answer · Small sample1.9%

Did not vote in this race · Small sample0.4%

State Treasurer

State Treasurer ballot choice

Lead called Ted Lauzen leads Mike Miller, 32.8% to 17.7% (n = 1,082; the poll's margin of error ±3.3 points). Other answers, including undecided: 49.5%.

Question details

Response	Percent	Interviews	95% margin	Note
Ted Lauzen	32.8%	373	±3.2 pp
Undecided	28.5%	317	±3.1 pp
Mike Miller	17.7%	165	±2.6 pp
Michael Alexander Smith	12.7%	127	±2.3 pp
Prefer not to answer	3.1%	38	±1.2 pp
Would not vote in this race	2.9%	33	±1.1 pp
Someone else	1.9%	24	±0.9 pp	Small sample
Did not vote in this race	0.4%	5	±0.5 pp	Small sample

Ted Lauzen32.8%

Undecided28.5%

Mike Miller17.7%

Michael Alexander Smith12.7%

Prefer not to answer3.1%

Would not vote in this race2.9%

Someone else · Small sample1.9%

Did not vote in this race · Small sample0.4%

Explore responses

QuestionBreak down by

Gender	Kathy Jennings	Undecided	Dwayne J. Bensing	Prefer not to answer	Patty Rickman	Would not vote in this race	Someone else	Did not vote in this race
All respondents	51.4%	24.5%	13.1%	2.9%	2.3%	2.6%	2.7%	0.5%
Women	53.0%	25.7%	11.4% *	3.7% *	3.1%	1.8%	0.8%	0.5%
Men	51.1%	23.0% *	15.0% *	1.0%	1.0%	3.0%	5.4% *	0.4%
Gender unknownWithheld: Effective base too small	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

* Small sample. A dash means the estimate is withheld because too few interviews support it; the reason is shown. Percentages may not total 100 because of rounding.

Methodology

Preliminary findings from this published snapshot. Later interviews are not included.

Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having (super PAC, FEC C00933085); conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit.

Field dates: Sep 13, 2026
Interviews: 1,160
Collected by: Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey
Margin of error: ±3.3 pts
Design effect: 1.30

1.96 × √(design effect × 0.25 ÷ n) × 100, for a 50% result among all respondents

Population

Delaware Democratic primary electorate — revised 17-question poll

Sample frame and selection

Delaware 2026 Democratic primary — L2 hybrid deficit augmentation v2 (331,237 eligible records). Voters selected at random (draw sized for 400 completes). 64,054 sent a text invitation.State: DE
Delaware 2026 Democratic primary federal statewide and at-large (331,237 eligible records). Voters selected at random (draw sized for 722 completes). 42,671 sent a text invitation.State: DE · Party registration: democrat · Primary party: democrat · Primary type: closed · Office: Federal Democratic primary — statewide and U.S. House at-large · Turnout model: trained_turnout_de_dem_primary2022_forecast20260915

Modes

Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey

Languages

English

Weighting

Iterative proportional fitting (raking), weights bounded between 0.25 and 4. Targets: the expected-turnout composition of the frozen sample design, with race and ethnicity from a probabilistic voter-file model.

Processing and quality

Completed interviews only; partial interviews are excluded.

Opened surveys not completed at the time of the check: 795

36 estimates are withheld because their base is too small to report.

Weighting targets and weighted sample
Variable	Category	Target	Weighted sample
Gender	Women	59.2%	59.0%
	Men	37.9%	38.0%
	Gender unknown	2.9%	3.0%
Age group	18 to 29	3.0%	2.5%
	30 to 44	10.0%	9.8%
	45 to 54	10.2%	10.2%
	55 to 64	18.1%	18.2%
	65 and older	58.7%	59.2%
Race and ethnicity (voter-file model)	Asian or Pacific Islander	2.2%	2.2%
	Black	27.1%	26.6%
	Hispanic	4.7%	4.7%
	Other	2.4%	2.4%
	White	63.6%	64.0%

Limitations

The margin of error (3.3 points at 95% confidence, including the design effect) describes sampling error for a result near 50% among all respondents. Results for subgroups carry larger margins, and question wording, coverage and nonresponse can also affect results.
The sponsor is a political committee (a super PAC). Readers should weigh results with that sponsorship in mind.
Respondents could be reached only through a telephone number matched to their voter record; voters without a usable number were outside the sample frame.
Respondents answered online; people unable or unwilling to complete a web survey are represented only through weighting.
32 respondent(s) had no recorded age group and were not adjusted on that variable.
119 respondent(s) had no recorded race and ethnicity (voter-file model) and were not adjusted on that variable.
36 estimate(s) did not meet the reporting rules (for example, too few respondents) and are withheld.

Questionnaire in the order asked: DE 2026 Democratic Primary v2

How likely are you to vote in the September 15, 2026 Democratic primary election?
Options: Already voted / Extremely likely / Very likely / Somewhat likely / Somewhat unlikely / Very unlikely / Extremely unlikely / Not sure
For whom did you vote in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senator?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”
Options: Jeff Appelhans / Chris Coons / E. No-Trump Hansen / Mary Louve / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
If the Democratic primary for U.S. Senator were held today, for whom would you vote?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”
Options: Jeff Appelhans / Chris Coons / E. No-Trump Hansen / Mary Louve / Someone else / Undecided / Would not vote in this race
For whom did you vote in the Democratic primary for Attorney General?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”
Options: Dwayne J. Bensing / Kathy Jennings / Patty Rickman / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
If the Democratic primary for Attorney General were held today, for whom would you vote?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”
Options: Dwayne J. Bensing / Kathy Jennings / Patty Rickman / Someone else / Undecided / Would not vote in this race
For whom did you vote in the Democratic primary for State Treasurer?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”
Options: Ted Lauzen / Mike Miller / Michael Alexander Smith / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
If the Democratic primary for State Treasurer were held today, for whom would you vote?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”
Options: Ted Lauzen / Mike Miller / Michael Alexander Smith / Someone else / Undecided / Would not vote in this race
How much have you thought about this primary?
Options: A great deal / Some / A little / Not at all / Not sure / Prefer not to answer
How did you cast your vote in this primary?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”
Options: In person on Election Day / Early in person / Absentee ballot, by mail or drop-off / Not sure / Prefer not to answer
If you vote in this primary, how do you plan to vote?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”
Options: In person on Election Day / Early in person / Absentee ballot, by mail or drop-off / Have not decided / Do not plan to vote / Prefer not to answer
Did you vote in the Delaware primary in September 2024? This was before the November general election.
Options: Yes / No / I was not eligible to vote then / I did not live in Delaware then / Do not remember / Prefer not to answer
What is your age?
Options: 18 to 29 / 30 to 44 / 45 to 54 / 55 to 64 / 65 or older / Prefer not to answer
What is your gender?
Options: Male / Female / Nonbinary or another gender / Prefer not to answer
What is the highest level of school you have completed?
Options: Less than high school / High school graduate / Some college / Vocational or trade school / College graduate / Postgraduate degree / Prefer not to answer
Are you Hispanic or Latino?
Options: Yes / No / Prefer not to answer
How would you describe your racial background?
Options: White / Black or African American / Asian or Pacific Islander / Native American or Indigenous / Middle Eastern or North African / Other or multiracial / Prefer not to answer
How sure are you that you will vote in the September 15 primary? Pick a number from 1 to 10.
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”
Options: 1 — Definitely will not vote / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 — Definitely will vote / Not sure / Prefer not to answer

Questionnaire in the order asked: DE 2026 Democratic Primary v3

How likely are you to vote in the September 15, 2026 Democratic primary election?
Options: Already voted / Extremely likely / Very likely / Somewhat likely / Somewhat unlikely / Very unlikely / Extremely unlikely / Not sure
For whom did you vote in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senator?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”
Options: Jeff Appelhans / Chris Coons / E. No-Trump Hansen / Mary Louve / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
If the Democratic primary for U.S. Senator were held today, for whom would you vote?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”
Options: Jeff Appelhans / Chris Coons / E. No-Trump Hansen / Mary Louve / Someone else / Undecided / Would not vote in this race
For whom did you vote in the Democratic primary for Attorney General?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”
Options: Dwayne J. Bensing / Kathy Jennings / Patty Rickman / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
If the Democratic primary for Attorney General were held today, for whom would you vote?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”
Options: Dwayne J. Bensing / Kathy Jennings / Patty Rickman / Someone else / Undecided / Would not vote in this race
For whom did you vote in the Democratic primary for State Treasurer?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”
Options: Ted Lauzen / Mike Miller / Michael Alexander Smith / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
If the Democratic primary for State Treasurer were held today, for whom would you vote?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”
Options: Ted Lauzen / Mike Miller / Michael Alexander Smith / Someone else / Undecided / Would not vote in this race
How much have you thought about this primary?
Options: A great deal / Some / A little / Not at all / Not sure / Prefer not to answer
How did you cast your vote in this primary?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”
Options: In person on Election Day / Early in person / Absentee ballot, by mail or drop-off / Not sure / Prefer not to answer
If you vote in this primary, how do you plan to vote?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”
Options: In person on Election Day / Early in person / Absentee ballot, by mail or drop-off / Have not decided / Do not plan to vote / Prefer not to answer
Did you vote in the Delaware primary in September 2024? This was before the November general election.
Options: Yes / No / I was not eligible to vote then / I did not live in Delaware then / Do not remember / Prefer not to answer
What is your age?
Options: 18 to 29 / 30 to 44 / 45 to 54 / 55 to 64 / 65 or older / Prefer not to answer
What is your gender?
Options: Male / Female / Nonbinary or another gender / Prefer not to answer
What is the highest level of school you have completed?
Options: Less than high school / High school graduate / Some college / Vocational or trade school / College graduate / Postgraduate degree / Prefer not to answer
Are you Hispanic or Latino?
Options: Yes / No / Prefer not to answer
How would you describe your racial background?
Options: White / Black or African American / Asian or Pacific Islander / Native American or Indigenous / Middle Eastern or North African / Other or multiracial / Prefer not to answer
How sure are you that you will vote in the September 15 primary? Pick a number from 1 to 10.
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”
Options: 1 — Definitely will not vote / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 — Definitely will vote / Not sure / Prefer not to answer

Full disclosure as plain text

Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having (super PAC, FEC C00933085); conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit. Population: Delaware Democratic primary electorate — revised 17-question poll (DE). Sample frame: 331,237 voter-file records in universe "Delaware 2026 Democratic primary — L2 hybrid deficit augmentation v2" (State: DE); random draw of 400; 64,054 sent a text invitation. Sample frame: 331,237 voter-file records in universe "Delaware 2026 Democratic primary federal statewide and at-large" (State: DE; Party registration: democrat; Primary party: democrat; Primary type: closed; Office: Federal Democratic primary — statewide and U.S. House at-large; Turnout model: trained_turnout_de_dem_primary2022_forecast20260915); random draw of 722; 42,671 sent a text invitation. Modes: Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey. Languages: English. Interviews completed September 13, 2026 to September 13, 2026. n = 1,160 completed interviews; 106,725 sampled voters were sent a text invitation; margin of error ±3.3 percentage points at 95% confidence including a design effect of 1.3. Effective sample size 893. Weighting: iterative proportional fitting (raking) to gender (women 59.2%, men 37.9%, gender not recorded 2.9%); age group (18-29 3.0%, 30-44 10.0%, 45-54 10.2%, 55-64 18.1%, 65+ 58.7%); race and ethnicity (voter-file model) (Asian or Pacific Islander 2.2%, Black 27.1%, Hispanic 4.7%, other races 2.4%, White 63.6%), from the expected-turnout composition of the frozen sample design, with race and ethnicity from a probabilistic voter-file model; base weights are the inverse of each sampled voter's recorded selection probability within the stratified draw; weights trimmed to 0.25-4.0. Processing: completed interviews only; partial interviews are excluded. Quality checks flagged 795 opened surveys not completed at the time of the check. 59 estimates reported, 36 withheld under the reporting rules. Limitations: The margin of error (3.3 points at 95% confidence, including the design effect) describes sampling error for a result near 50% among all respondents. Results for subgroups carry larger margins, and question wording, coverage and nonresponse can also affect results. The sponsor is a political committee (a super PAC). Readers should weigh results with that sponsorship in mind. Respondents could be reached only through a telephone number matched to their voter record; voters without a usable number were outside the sample frame. Respondents answered online; people unable or unwilling to complete a web survey are represented only through weighting. 32 respondent(s) had no recorded age group and were not adjusted on that variable. 119 respondent(s) had no recorded race and ethnicity (voter-file model) and were not adjusted on that variable. 36 estimate(s) did not meet the reporting rules (for example, too few respondents) and are withheld. Questions, as written (DE 2026 Democratic Primary, version 2): 1. How likely are you to vote in the September 15, 2026 Democratic primary election? [Already voted / Extremely likely / Very likely / Somewhat likely / Somewhat unlikely / Very unlikely / Extremely unlikely / Not sure] 2. For whom did you vote in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senator? [Jeff Appelhans / Chris Coons / E. No-Trump Hansen / Mary Louve / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) 3. If the Democratic primary for U.S. Senator were held today, for whom would you vote? [Jeff Appelhans / Chris Coons / E. No-Trump Hansen / Mary Louve / Someone else / Undecided / Would not vote in this race] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”) 4. For whom did you vote in the Democratic primary for Attorney General? [Dwayne J. Bensing / Kathy Jennings / Patty Rickman / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) 5. If the Democratic primary for Attorney General were held today, for whom would you vote? [Dwayne J. Bensing / Kathy Jennings / Patty Rickman / Someone else / Undecided / Would not vote in this race] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”) 6. For whom did you vote in the Democratic primary for State Treasurer? [Ted Lauzen / Mike Miller / Michael Alexander Smith / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) 7. If the Democratic primary for State Treasurer were held today, for whom would you vote? [Ted Lauzen / Mike Miller / Michael Alexander Smith / Someone else / Undecided / Would not vote in this race] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”) 8. How much have you thought about this primary? [A great deal / Some / A little / Not at all / Not sure / Prefer not to answer] 9. How did you cast your vote in this primary? [In person on Election Day / Early in person / Absentee ballot, by mail or drop-off / Not sure / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) 10. If you vote in this primary, how do you plan to vote? [In person on Election Day / Early in person / Absentee ballot, by mail or drop-off / Have not decided / Do not plan to vote / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”) 11. Did you vote in the Delaware primary in September 2024? This was before the November general election. [Yes / No / I was not eligible to vote then / I did not live in Delaware then / Do not remember / Prefer not to answer] 12. What is your age? [18 to 29 / 30 to 44 / 45 to 54 / 55 to 64 / 65 or older / Prefer not to answer] 13. What is your gender? [Male / Female / Nonbinary or another gender / Prefer not to answer] 14. What is the highest level of school you have completed? [Less than high school / High school graduate / Some college / Vocational or trade school / College graduate / Postgraduate degree / Prefer not to answer] 15. Are you Hispanic or Latino? [Yes / No / Prefer not to answer] 16. How would you describe your racial background? [White / Black or African American / Asian or Pacific Islander / Native American or Indigenous / Middle Eastern or North African / Other or multiracial / Prefer not to answer] 17. How sure are you that you will vote in the September 15 primary? Pick a number from 1 to 10. [1 — Definitely will not vote / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 — Definitely will vote / Not sure / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”) Questions, as written (DE 2026 Democratic Primary, version 3): 1. How likely are you to vote in the September 15, 2026 Democratic primary election? [Already voted / Extremely likely / Very likely / Somewhat likely / Somewhat unlikely / Very unlikely / Extremely unlikely / Not sure] 2. For whom did you vote in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senator? [Jeff Appelhans / Chris Coons / E. No-Trump Hansen / Mary Louve / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) 3. If the Democratic primary for U.S. Senator were held today, for whom would you vote? [Jeff Appelhans / Chris Coons / E. No-Trump Hansen / Mary Louve / Someone else / Undecided / Would not vote in this race] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”) 4. For whom did you vote in the Democratic primary for Attorney General? [Dwayne J. Bensing / Kathy Jennings / Patty Rickman / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) 5. If the Democratic primary for Attorney General were held today, for whom would you vote? [Dwayne J. Bensing / Kathy Jennings / Patty Rickman / Someone else / Undecided / Would not vote in this race] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”) 6. For whom did you vote in the Democratic primary for State Treasurer? [Ted Lauzen / Mike Miller / Michael Alexander Smith / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) 7. If the Democratic primary for State Treasurer were held today, for whom would you vote? [Ted Lauzen / Mike Miller / Michael Alexander Smith / Someone else / Undecided / Would not vote in this race] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”) 8. How much have you thought about this primary? [A great deal / Some / A little / Not at all / Not sure / Prefer not to answer] 9. How did you cast your vote in this primary? [In person on Election Day / Early in person / Absentee ballot, by mail or drop-off / Not sure / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) 10. If you vote in this primary, how do you plan to vote? [In person on Election Day / Early in person / Absentee ballot, by mail or drop-off / Have not decided / Do not plan to vote / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”) 11. Did you vote in the Delaware primary in September 2024? This was before the November general election. [Yes / No / I was not eligible to vote then / I did not live in Delaware then / Do not remember / Prefer not to answer] 12. What is your age? [18 to 29 / 30 to 44 / 45 to 54 / 55 to 64 / 65 or older / Prefer not to answer] 13. What is your gender? [Male / Female / Nonbinary or another gender / Prefer not to answer] 14. What is the highest level of school you have completed? [Less than high school / High school graduate / Some college / Vocational or trade school / College graduate / Postgraduate degree / Prefer not to answer] 15. Are you Hispanic or Latino? [Yes / No / Prefer not to answer] 16. How would you describe your racial background? [White / Black or African American / Asian or Pacific Islander / Native American or Indigenous / Middle Eastern or North African / Other or multiracial / Prefer not to answer] 17. How sure are you that you will vote in the September 15 primary? Pick a number from 1 to 10. [1 — Definitely will not vote / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / 10 — Definitely will vote / Not sure / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Extremely likely” or “Very likely” or “Somewhat likely” or “Somewhat unlikely” or “Very unlikely” or “Extremely unlikely” or “Not sure”)

sha256 fc3083643831c0fa84c5cb34f033b3fd343f73549797672d1b884eccf6af5350

Response rates (AAPOR Standard Definitions)

Response rate 1 (RR1): 0.6%
Response rate 3 (RR3): 0.6%
Cooperation rate 1 (COOP1): 21.0%
Refusal rate 1 (REF1): 2.3%
Contact rate 1 (CON1): 3.0%

e = 1.0000: proportional allocation (the default of AAPOR Survey Outcome Rate Calculator 5.1 (2023), List Samples sheet) over the 5,536 cases whose eligibility was settled by contact (5,536 eligible, 0 screened out). Duplicate listings are left out because the frame check removed them from every drawn case. The questionnaire has no eligibility screener, and the Standard Definitions treat an unreached named-list case as eligible when none is required.

Final dispositions of the 186,560 voters drawn
AAPOR code	Disposition	Cases
1.1	Complete interview	1,160
2.1121	Opened the survey, answered no question	17
2.1133	Replied STOP to the invitation	3,564
2.12	Break-off: started the survey (web link or phone) and stopped before completing it	795
3.20	Invitation delivered, no response	98,790
3.219	Invitation not delivered	2,388
3.23	Not attempted: no invitation sent and no call dialed	79,835
3.9	Invitation sent, no delivery status returned	11

RR1 by sample frame
Sample frame	Drawn	Completes	RR1
Delaware Democratic Primary Poll 2026 — revised-link continuation	72,200	523	0.7%
Delaware 2026 Democratic Primary — L2 hybrid augmentation	114,360	637	0.6%

RR1 by age band
Age band	Drawn	Completes	RR1
18-24	600	1	0.2%
25-34	3,100	2	0.1%
35-44	5,300	19	0.4%
45-54	20,669	72	0.3%
55-64	28,981	204	0.7%
65+	74,346	775	1.0%
Unknown	53,564	87	0.2%

RR1 by file party
File party	Drawn	Completes	RR1
Democrat	186,560	1,160	0.6%

RR1 by race (voter file)
Race (voter file)	Drawn	Completes	RR1
Unknown	37,100	247	0.7%
Asian American or Pacific Islander	2,656	7	0.3%
Black	62,145	318	0.5%
Hispanic	8,350	40	0.5%
Other	1,627	8	0.5%
White	74,682	540	0.7%

Rates use the formulas of the AAPOR Survey Outcome Rate Calculator 5.1 (2023), List Samples sheet; RR1 counts every drawn voter except duplicate listings.

Weighting appendix: trimming and the shadow estimate

Weight trimming

Bounds: 0.25 to 4.0 (weight relative to a mean base weight of 1).

Weights trimmed: 5 (strategy: once, after raking).

Design effect before trimming: 1.371.

Design effect after trimming: 1.299.

The before figure comes from re-running this run's stored inputs; the rerun matched every stored weight.

Data-defect shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.ddc.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Status: not applicable. This is a dem_primary election; the data-defect spec covers only general and special elections.

A + recall shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.a-plus-recall.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Status: not applicable. This is a dem_primary election; the A + recall spec covers only general and special elections.

A + education shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.a-plus-education.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Status: not applicable. This is a dem_primary election; the A + education spec covers only general and special elections.

A + post-ballot partials shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.a-plus-partials.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Status: not applicable. This is a dem_primary election; the A + post-ballot partials spec covers only general and special elections.

LV fitted shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.lv-fitted.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Status: not applicable. This is a dem_primary election; the LV fitted spec covers only general and special elections.

A + covariate undecided allocation shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.undecided-covariate.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Status: not applicable. This is a dem_primary election; the A + covariate undecided allocation spec covers only general and special elections.

Turnout level scenarios (carried beside the estimates; not the headline, no weight changes)

Status: not recorded. This weighting run stores no turnout scenarios; they are recorded on November 3, 2026 general and special polls weighted from 2026-10-05.

AAPOR disclosure: further items

Data collection strategy (AAPOR A1)

A survey of Delaware Democratic primary electorate — revised 17-question poll. Collection: Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey.

Who collected the interviews (AAPOR A2)

RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit, drew the sample and collected the interviews itself; no outside fieldwork vendor collected interviews.

Wording shown or read before the questions (AAPOR A3)

Invitation text (wave 1), 26,715 sent: "Hi {first_name}, We are looking for insight from {community} voters. Take a {survey_minutes} MIN RedBox Research poll: {survey_url} Reply STOP to end; HELP for help."

Invitation text (wave 1), 26,686 sent: "Hi {first_name}, We are looking for insight from {community} voters before {election_day}. Take a {survey_minutes} MIN RedBox Research poll: {survey_url} Reply STOP to end; HELP for help."

Invitation text (wave 1), 26,665 sent: "Hi {first_name}, We are short on responses from {community} voters. Take a {survey_minutes} MIN RedBox Research poll: {survey_url} Reply STOP to end; HELP for help."

Invitation text (wave 1), 26,659 sent: "Hi {first_name}, We are looking for insight from {community} voters on {election_reference}. Take a {survey_minutes} MIN RedBox Research poll: {survey_url} Reply STOP to end; HELP for help."

Words in braces were filled in for each recipient when the text was sent.

Introduction: the frozen questionnaire has no welcome screen, so the survey opened on its first question.

The survey was self-administered on the web: there was no interviewer or AI script.

Likely voters (AAPOR A4)

No question screened respondents out of the interview. No likely-voter adjustment was applied to the weights.

Sample type (AAPOR A5a)

A probability sample: every voter was drawn at random, with a recorded seed, from the voter-file universe named in the disclosure. No response was generated by AI (no synthetic respondents were used).

Sample frame and its date (AAPOR A5b)

Voters were drawn from the AFWH voter file, built from the Delaware official state voter registration file dated July 8, 2026 (received July 25, 2026), for 186,560 drawn voters. Telephone numbers: of the 106,725 voters sent an invitation or called, 106,725 at numbers L2 appended to the voter record (orders 132496, 132537 and 132589).

Coverage (AAPOR A5c)

106,725 of the 186,560 drawn voters (57.2%) had a textable number and were sent an invitation; the other 79,835 could not be reached by text and are counted as not attempted (AAPOR 3.23).

Quotas (AAPOR A5e)

Sample draws were sized to 103 target cells. No interview was stopped or screened out because a cell was full (no case carries a quota-full or screen-out disposition).

Incentives and contact (AAPOR A5i)

No incentive is recorded for this poll, and Pollster has no step that pays or promises one; the wording of the texts sent is under A3. Contact: a single invitation text; no reminders were sent.

Modes (AAPOR A6)

Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey. Language: English.

Interviews by frame and mode (AAPOR A8a)

Completed interviews by frame: Delaware Democratic Primary Poll 2026 — revised-link continuation 523; Delaware 2026 Democratic Primary — L2 hybrid augmentation 637. By mode: web 1,160.

Margin of error (AAPOR A8c)

The margin of error is shown because the sample was drawn at random; with a low response rate it holds only as far as weighting corrects nonresponse.

Quality checks (AAPOR A10)

Each invited voter received a unique survey link; a link yields at most one interview. Flags are measured, not used to drop cases: all 1,160 interviews completed by the status date are in the weighted estimates.

Total error (AAPOR A11)

The margins of error describe sampling error with the design effect; they are not widened for other sources of error. The margin of error on the gap between two candidates is roughly twice the poll's margin of error; each race's own figure is given in the fine print with its result.

AI use (AAPOR A12)

(a) Task performed by AI: none in data collection; no AI interviewer or chatbot was used (Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey). AI in processing: No language model coded, weighted or wrote any published result; every published number and sentence is produced by deterministic code from the recorded responses. (b) Human oversight or validation: not applicable; no AI output enters the data or the published results.

Panel (AAPOR B1)

No panel: respondents were drawn fresh from the voter file for this poll.

Dispositions (AAPOR B5)

Standard: AAPOR Standard Definitions, 10th edition (2023), list samples: section 1.3 (phone surveys of named persons) and section 1.6 (SMS surveys of named persons).

Final dispositions of the 186,560 drawn cases:

1.1 Complete interview: 1,160

2.1121 Opened the survey, answered no question: 17

2.1133 Replied STOP to the invitation: 3,564

2.12 Break-off: started the survey (web link or phone) and stopped before completing it: 795

3.20 Invitation delivered, no response: 98,790

3.219 Invitation not delivered: 2,388

3.23 Not attempted: no invitation sent and no call dialed: 79,835

3.9 Invitation sent, no delivery status returned: 11

Outcome rates: RR1 0.6%; RR3 0.6%; COOP1 21.0%; REF1 2.3%; CON1 3.0%.

106,725 text invitations sent, 0 calls dialed.

Text message to the web survey: 106,725 cases attempted. RR1 1.1%; RR3 1.1%; COOP1 21.0%; REF1 4.1%; CON1 5.2%.

Each mode counts only the people it tried to reach and only the interviews completed in that mode: a voter texted who then finished by phone is a text non-complete and a phone complete. Each mode's RR3 uses the release's e.

Each voter's final disposition is the most informative outcome across every text and call (AAPOR Standard Definitions, 10th edition, pp. 9 and 13): a complete in either mode, then a screen-out, then a refusal or break-off, then the most informative unreached outcome.

How leads are called

Total-error band for this release: primary. AAPOR state presidential MAE 5.1 (2016, 2020); AAPOR 2018 state polls 4.64; primaries 9 (Silver). sd = MAE*sqrt(pi/2).

Release information

Delaware Democratic Primary Poll 2026 — Initial Results

Version 1 · Published Sep 13, 2026

Release: 2c9e5028-2e0e-46d5-828a-3b7ce3ab918e

Source checksum: cbc895dd9f9e013d9472201fc26ac4980350fd07b062f58f99709387b8712274

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