Memorandum

TO:	Corbin Trent A Fight Worth Having
FROM:	Peter Feld
RE:	Democratic Primary poll in Arizona’s 4th Congressional District
DATE:	July 9, 2026

From July 6-8, 2026, A Fight Worth Having conducted a poll of 424 likely voters in the July 21, 2026 Democratic primary election for Congress in Arizona’s 4th District. Fielded by Braun Research of Princeton, NJ, using text to web, the survey’s margin of error is ±4.9%. No demographic weights were applied, but several questions asked of a partial sample were adjusted to match the profile of the full primary electorate, as noted in the topline report below.

Overview

Our poll of likely Democratic voters in the July 21, 2026 primary for Congress in Arizona’s 4th District shows a rapidly changing race, and a real opportunity this month for progressives to notch another win over an AIPAC-backed Democratic incumbent, but only by mobilizing quickly. Arizonans vote heavily early and by mail, and 59% of the expected voters in our survey say they have already voted.

Overall, Congressman Greg Stanton holds a narrow, 46-38% lead over activist Kai Newkirk, with 17% undecided. But the cast votes look very different from those yet to come in. While Stanton leads by 56% to 36% among those who have already voted, Newkirk holds a double-digit 41%-30% lead over Stanton among those yet to vote, with another 17% undecided.

Stanton’s vulnerability comes despite positive job approval (59% approve, 29% disapprove) and favorability ratings (63% favorable, 28% unfavorable). Part of the reason may be Democratic voters’ hunger for change, as we see nationally. By double digits, Arizona 4 primary voters believe Democrats should replace Hakeem Jeffries as their leader in Congress (45% to 34%, with 22% undecided). Voters respond strongly to messages about the need for new Democratic leadership, and after hearing information about Jeffries, including his AIPAC funding and support for Israeli genocide and the war in Iran, and his failure to stand up to Trump, they opt to replace him by a 3-to-1 margin, 60% to 20%. Arizona 4 voters are also strongly positive to national anti-establishment figures like AOC, Bernie, and Zohran, each of whom has favorability ratings in the 80s among those yet to vote—30 points higher than for Hakeem Jeffries.

Those yet to vote respond strongly to messages in favor of Newkirk and against Stanton. Top positive messages for Newkirk include a wealth tax, abolishing ICE, and finally passing Medicare for All. The strongest messages against Stanton include his support for the Laken Riley Act, and his AIPAC funding and support for Israeli genocide. Those yet to vote become even more supportive of Newkirk in informed votes after hearing messages. (We did not test these messages among those who have already cast ballots.) Their initial 41%-30% support for Kai Newkirk widens to 54%-27% after reading balanced profile descriptions, then to 60%-22% after Newkirk’s positive messages, and finally to 65%-18% after criticisms of Stanton.

But with 12 days to go, and votes pouring in daily, advertising to a fast-dwindling yet-to-vote electorate has its limits. The better opportunity, for those hoping to increase the momentum for change in Washington by electing Kai Newkirk and defeating Greg Stanton, is to expand the electorate beyond the expected vote with a massive field mobilization, and build upon Newkirk’s support among those who have not voted. Progressives have registered great national momentum in just the past month, but we have also seen missed opportunities (Hickenlooper, Grace Meng) because many did not realize how vulnerable those incumbents were.

Our poll provides compelling proof that Newkirk can be a win instead of another close disappointment. Progressive organizations who have the infrastructure to activate volunteers nationally should strongly consider putting their weight behind efforts to elect Kai Newkirk in the July 21 primary, with a surge of new voters like those in our survey who are yet to vote, and whose responses show a strong wish for new Democratic leadership in Congress.

The Electorate

Arizona 4 voters who report already having sent in their ballot are different from those yet to vote in important ways.

• Those who have already voted are older. Their median age is 59, while the median age of those yet to vote is 46.

• Those yet to vote are more likely to identify as progressives (47%) than those who already voted (37%).

• Voters in Mesa are more likely to have already voted at the time of this poll, while those in Tempe and Chandler are less likely to have.

• However, there are no gender or ethnic differences between those who have voted and the yet to vote.

Political Environment

Greg Stanton holds a positive job rating of 59% approve to 29% disapprove among all primary voters, which makes his reelection vulnerability in this poll all the more remarkable.

• Stanton holds a 65%-27% positive job rating from those who have voted, but only a 49%-32% approval rating among those yet to vote.

• Approval of Stanton rises sharply with age. His approval rating is 41% among voters 18-34, 49% among those 35-49, 56% among voters 50-64, and 77% among voters 65 and over.

• As might be expected for an ex-mayor, Phoenix strongly approves of Stanton (70%). In Chandler his approval is 61%, while Tempe (56%) and Mesa (54%) show weaker approval of Stanton.

• Democrats approve of Stanton more strongly (60%) than Independents (48%).

• Self-described ideology is a major driver of attitudes toward Stanton’s job. Among progressives, only 42% approve, while voters who call themselves “very liberal” approve of his job by a massive 79%, and among less liberal, moderate or conservative voters, his job approval is 68%. (This highlights how different the “progressive” and “very liberal” identifications are, at least in this district.)

Greg Stanton also holds a strongly positive personal favorability rating of 63% to 28%. However, his popularity lags behind major national figures like Bernie Sanders, AOC, and Zohran Mamdani.

• Stanton’s favorability is 68% among those who have voted, but only 55% among those yet to vote.

• As with job approval, Stanton’s personal favorability rises with voters’ age: 45% among those 18-34, 54% among those 35-49, 64% among those 50-64, and 79% among those 65 and older.

• Stanton’s favorability is 74% with Phoenix voters, and near 60% everywhere else.

• His favorability is 64% among Democrats and 52% among Independents.

• Stanton’s favorability is 46% among self-described progressives, 81% among those who call themselves very liberal, and 73% among those ranging from somewhat liberal to very conservative.

Kai Newkirk holds a positive personal favorability rating of 48% to 13%, for a name ID of 61% which is 20 points lower than Stanton’s recognition score of 81% (favorable plus unfavorable). A large portion of voters (38%) do not know Newkirk well enough to rate him.

• Newkirk’s favorability ratings and name ID are almost identical among those who have voted (49% favorable-13% unfavorable, 62% recognition) and those who haven’t (47% favorable-13% unfavorable, 60% recognition).

• Newkirk’s ratings show no significant difference by gender.

• However, Newkirk’s favorability and recognition are much stronger among younger voters. He scores 74% favorable among voters 18-34, 63% among voters 35-49, 43% among voters 50-64, and only 23% among those 65 and over. (His negative scores are flat, between 12% and 14% among all age groups.)

• Newkirk has much stronger favorability among Latino voters (63%) than among white voters (46%).

• Newkirk is better liked by Democrats (51%) than Independents (43%).

• Two thirds of self-described progressives (67%) like Newkirk, compared with 41% among “very liberal” voters and 31% among those calling themselves somewhat liberal, moderate or conservative. However his negative ratings across ideological groups show no significant differences.

• There are no significant regional differences in Newkirk’s popularity.

The three national progressive figures tested—Bernie Sanders, AOC, and Zohran Mamdani—are wildly popular in Arizona 4, with scores in the 80s, as the chart below shows. (Please note that these ratings were only asked of people yet to vote.)

• AOC and Mamdani show some softness among voters 50-64 (ratings in the 60s, versus 80s among all other age groups).

• It is notable how strongly older voters (65 and over) love these three figures. Bernie’s and AOC’s favorability among these older voters are both 88%, and Mamdani’s is 86%.

• While Bernie and Mamdani show slight softness among Latino voters (Bernie’s favorability is 79% and Mamdani’s is 70%), AOC is as strong with Latino as with white voters (83%).

Hakeem Jeffries’s ratings in Arizona 4 are more modest than other local and national elected officials, with a 53% favorable and relatively high 32% unfavorable rating. It’s not that voters don’t know him: he holds an 85% total recognition score.

• Jeffries has a 58%-22% favorable/unfavorable score among those who have voted, while those yet to vote are split (45% favorable, 45% unfavorable).

• Voters under 50 are negative toward Jeffries. Among those 18-34, Jeffries is 28% favorable, 45% unfavorable. Among those age 35-49 he fares even worse: 57% unfavorable, 28% favorable. However, older voters love Jeffries: he scores 62%-20% among voters 50-64, and 73%-17% among voters 65 and over.

• Jeffries is in positive territory among Democrats (55%-29%) but majority negative with Independents (32% favorable, 50% unfavorable).

• Jeffries is marginally negative with progressive voters (42% favorable, 48% negative), strongly popular among the “very liberal” (67% to 25%) and liked but less so by those who are less liberal, moderate or conservative (55% favorable, 19% unfavorable).

AIPAC is strongly disliked, with only a 12% favorable and 65% unfavorable score. Men are more intensely negative (74%) than women (56%).

• Four in five (80%) voters under 50 dislike AIPAC. Among voters 50-plus, AIPAC’s negative rating drops to 44%, but still only 18% are favorable.

Democratic Leadership

By 11 points (45%-34%), Democratic primary voters in Arizona 4 believe Democrats in Congress should choose new leadership if they regain control of the House in this year’s midterms. While those yet to vote feel more strongly about this, even those who have already voted want change, by a narrow margin.

After hearing messages about Jeffries’s performance as leader—including AIPAC and support for weapons to Israel during the genocide, failing to sufficiently fight Trump, backing the war on Iran, voting to fund ICE, failing to pass Medicare for All, and breaking Democrats’ promises of affordability, all of which are about equally strong—support for change widens to a 3-to-1 mandate (60% someone new, 20% Jeffries should continue).

Stanton vs. Newkirk

* voters who have already voted but are unsure who they voted for.

Greg Stanton narrowly leads Kai Newkirk overall by single digits, 46% to 38%, with 17% undecided. He leads by 20 points among the 59% of the expected electorate who have already voted, but trails by 11 among those who are yet to vote.

The decreasing pool of voters who are yet to vote respond strongly to messages for Newkirk and against Stanton. His initial lead of 41% to 30% among this group quickly widens to 54% to 27% after they read balanced profiles, with Stanton losing ground slightly, despite a profile drawn straight from the messaging on his own website, while Newkirk gains 13 points on his profile. Newkirk continues to gain after voters hear his individual positive messages, to a 60%-22% lead, and then to 65% to 18% after voters have heard negative messages about Stanton. The key question will be: can the pool of voters yet to vote be reached in time with these messages, and will that be enough to erase Stanton’s lead among those who have already voted? (And can Newkirk supporters mobilize enough additional voters to change the composition of the electorate?)

There are no significant voting differences by gender or region of the district.

• Interestingly, Stanton wins only 72% of voters who approve of his job performance, 16% of whom support Newkirk and 12% who are undecided. Among those who disapprove of Stanton’s job, Newkirk leads by 80% to 7%, with 13% undecided.

Persuasion targets for Newkirk’s campaign would be quite different from his turnout targets. Several of the demographic groups most supportive of Stanton—such as voters over age 65, and self-described “very liberal” voters—show the greatest shift toward Newkirk after reading campaign messages. Any persuasion campaign through advertising should target:

• Independent voters (41% shift, compared to 24% among all voters)

• Women over 50 (38% shift)

• Voters 65 and over (37% shift)

• Voters in Phoenix (32% shift)

Women in general are much more likely to shift toward Newkirk (30%) than men (18%).

Positive Newkirk Messages

All ten positive potential Newkirk messages are rated as “very strong” by about six in ten Arizona 4 Democratic primary voters, with a wealth tax topping the list. (See topline report for full wording.)

There is no major difference in the ranking of these messages by Newkirk’s persuasion targets (those who shift toward him after reading information).

Negative Messages Against Stanton

While Newkirk picks up substantial support after voters see balanced profiles and then his positive messaging, he has a significant Stanton lead to overcome among votes already cast. The anti-Stanton messages we tested help make Newkirk make additional gains, and are an important part of any paid messaging program.

Anti-Stanton messaging about ICE and Israel score substantially more strongly than several other messages, though all of those also give doubts to a majority of voters yet to vote, including failed DC Democratic leadership, Wall Street money, and Stanton’s failure to pass Medicare for All. The argument that Stanton won’t protect abortion because of his past stance does not work well, likely because he has convinced voters he now supports abortion rights.

Summary

Kai Newkirk is within range of scoring a dazzling and unexpected upset of another progressive against an establishment Democrat. Those who have not voted but plan to support him by double digits. Yet the challenger faces an obstacle of votes already cast that favor incumbent Greg Stanton. Unless Newkirk can expand the electorate, as well as persuading additional voters already likely to vote, he is in danger of running out of road.

Persuasion, through ads and all other means, is likely to be helpful to Newkirk, because he holds the advantage of potent messages that are demonstrated to persuade voters. However, the pool of available voters is fast shrinking—other Arizona Democratic primaries have registered up to 90% of the electorate eventually voting early by mail. Persuasion will not be enough to put Newkirk over the top. He will need to grow the pie.

For Newkirk to achieve the turnout he needs, it will be hugely helpful if national progressive organizations that have the infrastructure to mobilize an army of volunteers to consider the opportunity this race provides for a July pickup, and to jump in.

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Arizona 4th Congressional District Democratic Primary

A Fight Worth Having

July 6-8, 2026

Topline Report

424 Interviews

Margin of Error +4.9%

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Q1. Have you already voted in the July 21 Democratic primary for Congress? (IF YES, SKIP TO Q2. IF NO:) How likely are you to vote in the July 21, 2026 Democratic primary election for Congress?

Q2. (See Q11 below)

ASKED OF ALL

Q3. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Greg Stanton is doing as a member of Congress? (IF CHOICE): Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly, or not strongly?

Please indicate if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or strongly unfavorable opinion of each of the following. RANDOMIZE ORDER Q4-Q10

* Q4 added midway for already-voted respondents, and their responses weighted to their correct proportion of the full electorate.

Q2/Q11. IF ALREADY VOTED: For whom did you vote in the Democratic primary for Congress? IF YET TO VOTE: For whom do you intend to vote in the July 21, 2026 Democratic primary election for Congress? (ROTATE ORDER)

ASKED OF ALL*

Q12. If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives this year, should Hakeem Jeffries continue to serve as the House Democratic Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else?

* Q12 added midway for already-voted respondents, and their responses weighted to their correct proportion of the full electorate.

ASKED ONLY IF YET TO VOTE

Q13. Here are descriptions of the two Democratic candidates for Congress. ROTATE.

Kai Newkirk is a national leader in nonviolent action and organizing for democracy, human rights, healthcare, and labor. Newkirk believes we need new Democrats in Congress, because our leaders are failing to stand up to Donald Trump. Newkirk will fight to impeach Trump, abolish ICE, and hold the Epstein class accountable. While Greg Stanton is heavily funded by AIPAC, private health insurance, big tech, and energy, Newkirk takes no corporate PAC money. He will ban all weapons to Israel to end the genocide in Gaza, and end funding for the disastrous war in Iran. Newkirk will make Arizona more affordable, with a ban on grocery price gouging and housing speculation, utility rate freeze, universal childcare, and finally passing Medicare for All.

Greg Stanton is a Democratic Congressman and former Phoenix mayor. Stanton says he doesn’t just fight, he delivers. He has brought hundreds of millions of federal investments home for roads, transit, airports, water infrastructure, public safety, job training and community college career education. He has worked to protect Arizona’s water, strengthen our semiconductor economy, lower prescription drug costs, and make sure Arizona families have a fair shot to get ahead. Stanton is fighting to defend democracy, protect abortion rights, and hold Trump accountable. He has demanded oversight of ICE detention facilities, and will not look away when Trump, MAGA extremists or powerful special interests threaten the people he represents.

Based on what you have now read, for whom do you intend to vote in the Democratic primary election for Congress? (ROTATE ORDER)

Q14-23 ASKED ONLY IF YET TO VOTE

Please indicate whether each of the following statements are a very strong reason to vote for Kai Newkirk for Congress, a somewhat strong reason, or not a strong reason? (SCRAMBLE Q14-Q23)

Q14. Newkirk says today’s Democratic leaders in Congress have failed to stand up to Donald Trump, and have cut too many deals with Republicans to fund ICE and endless wars. Newkirk will support new leadership who will impeach Donald Trump and hold him accountable.

Q15. Newkirk is not funded by corporate special interests. He’ll take action to make our lives more affordable — by ending speculation on housing by private equity, banning grocery price gouging, and raising wages.

Q16. Newkirk supports Palestinian human rights. He will fight to end the genocide in Gaza and uphold US law with an arms embargo on Israel, including a ban on all military aid and sales.

Q17. Newkirk believes immigrants make our country stronger. He will fight to abolish ICE, end Donald Trump’s cruel deportations to dangerous places, close unsafe detention centers, and prosecute federal agents and senior officials who violated the law and human rights.

Q18. Newkirk will stand up to Greg Stanton’s donors from the private health insurance industry, and finally pass Medicare for All, to cover every American from birth through the end of life, and guarantee health care as a right, not a privilege.

Q19. Newkirk will put an end to illegal forever wars. He will use every tool in Congress to stop Trump’s disastrous war with Iran, which is costing us tens of billions of dollars and making gas prices skyrocket.

Q20. Newkirk will tax the rich to make life more affordable for working class Americans, with a wealth tax on fortunes above $50 million, while making earners over $1 million and big corporations pay their fair share.

Q21. Newkirk will protect everyone’s right to abortion healthcare. He will expand the Supreme Court to restore all the protections of Roe v. Wade.

Q22. Newkirk will ensure affordable, world class education for every Arizonan, from universal pre-K to tuition-free public colleges and universities. He will cancel student debt for everyone, not just some people who meet certain conditions.

Q23. Newkirk will pass a moratorium on new AI data centers, to prevent power cost increases and make sure this technology benefits all of us — not just the ultra rich like Kevin O’Leary.

ASKED ONLY IF YET TO VOTE

Q24. Based on what you have now read, for whom do you intend to vote in the Democratic primary election for Congress? (ROTATE ORDER)

Q25-30 ASKED ONLY IF YET TO VOTE

Please indicate whether you think each of the following gives you serious doubts, some doubts, or no doubts about voting for Greg Stanton for Congress. (SCRAMBLE Q25-Q30)

Q25. In Congress, Stanton would continue to support the same failed leadership team that won’t stand up to Trump, and who has funded ICE, weapons to Israel, and endless war. Stanton even voted against a resolution calling for Trump’s impeachment in December 2025.

Q26. Stanton caved in to Donald Trump and voted for the Laken Riley Act, which lets Trump unconstitutionally deport immigrants who are wrongly accused of crimes, and gave more power to ICE to carry out Trump’s authoritarian mass deportation rampage. Stanton even voted with Republicans for a resolution that expressed gratitude towards ICE.

Q27. According to OpenSecrets, Stanton’s biggest campaign donor is AIPAC. He refused to call for an end to Israel's genocide in Gaza, and voted to send the Israeli military billions of our money, leading to the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians including 20,000 children, and the destruction of entire cities. He even voted with Republicans to censor criticism of Israel.

Q28. According to OpenSecrets, Stanton has taken millions of dollars from Wall Street corporations and executives, including big tech, private health insurance, and energy conglomerates that make our lives less affordable for the sake of their profits.

Q29. Stanton’s failure to support universal Medicare for All, after taking huge donations from the private health insurance industry, is devastating. Many Arizona families can’t get the healthcare they need because those same companies who support Stanton profit by denying care.

Q30. As a longtime anti-abortion advocate, we can’t trust Stanton to protect and restore abortion rights. He has done nothing to expand the Supreme Court so we can restore the protections of Roe v. Wade.

ASKED ONLY IF YET TO VOTE

Q31. Based on what you have read, for whom do you intend to vote in the Democratic primary election for Congress? (ROTATE ORDER)

ASKED OF ALL*

Please indicate whether you think each of the following is a very strong reason to replace Hakeem Jeffries as Democratic leader in Congress, a somewhat strong reason, or not a strong reason to replace Jeffries. (SCRAMBLE Q32-Q37)

Q32. Jeffries has received over $1 million in AIPAC-bundled contributions, while voting to send US-made weapons to Israel at the height of the genocide. When Israel was bombing hospitals in Gaza and destroying entire neighborhoods, Jeffries shouted “Israel today! Israel tomorrow! Israel forever!” —words like the ones Alabama Gov. George Wallace used to support segregation.

Q33. Jeffries has failed to force the votes that would make life more affordable. He opposes full cancellation of student debt, broke Democrats’ promise to expand Medicare, walked away from paid family leave, and let the Child Tax Credit expansion lapse, while the federal minimum wage has not moved from $7.25 since 2009.

Q34. Jeffries has failed to lead the fight for Medicare for All, and sided with the for-profit insurance industry, while sick people spend hours on the phone begging to get the care they need, even as Trump cuts $1.2 trillion from healthcare.

Q35. Jeffries has refused to use all the procedural tools House Democrats have to actually fight Donald Trump, and says if he becomes Speaker, impeaching Trump won’t be a priority. He has failed to offer an inspiring alternative to MAGA, treating Trump like a normal president, while Trump and his family get richer off the presidency and Republicans eliminate funding for public schools, Social Security administration, and medical research.

Q36. Jeffries privately supported Trump’s illegal war with Iran. He delayed a vote on the war until after it had already started, and let 4 Democrats split off and vote with the other side. Jeffries will do nothing to stop Trump’s $1.5 trillion in new military spending to pay for the Iran war.

Q37. Jeffries claims to want to “rein in ICE,” but has voted repeatedly to fund ICE, while Donald Trump has used that funding to deport more immigrants.

Q38. Thinking again, if Democrats win control of the House of Representatives this year, should Hakeem Jeffries continue to serve as the House Democratic Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else?

* Q32-38 added midway for already-voted respondents, and their responses weighted to their correct proportion of the full electorate.

Q39. What is your age?

Q40. What is your gender?

Q41. When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as progressive, very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?

Q42/43. Do you consider yourself Hispanic, Latino, or Latin American, or none of those? And how would you describe your racial or ethnic background?

Party registration

City (including adjacent unincorporated areas)