Arizona

Methodology

Likely voters
851
Arizona's 1st Congressional District
Margin of error
±4.2 points
design effect 1.57 included
Effective sample
541
what the weighted poll is worth
Field dates
Oct 20–23, 2026
first invitation to last interview, Eastern time

Methodology

We surveyed 851 likely voters in Arizona's 1st Congressional District from October 20 to 23, 2026. We texted voters drawn at random from the voter file a link to a web survey in English. We weighted the results to party registration, gender, age, education and race and ethnicity, and to the certified 2024 result through how people told us they voted. Our likely-voter model was set in advance; in backtests it did not clear its pre-registered accuracy bar, so we describe it as unvalidated. The poll's margin of error is ±4.2 points at 95% confidence, including the design effect. The margin of error on the gap between two candidates is roughly twice the poll's: ±8.1 points on the gap between Amish Shah and Thomas "Jay" Feely IV. A Fight Worth Having, a super PAC, paid for this poll. It was conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit.

How this poll's estimate was built

  • Estimate. The family-weighted average of the entered raking recipes.
  • Likely-voter model. Our likely-voter model was set in advance; in backtests it did not clear its pre-registered accuracy bar, so we describe it as unvalidated.
  • Weighting targets. Party registration, gender, age group, education (four-year college degree), race and ethnicity (voter-file model), corrected 2024 recall of file-validated 2024 voters, turnout score.
  • Samples in this poll. AZ-01 (851).
  • Returned ballots. The state's file of returned ballots was not used to score the recipes.
Weighting recipes in the estimate
RecipeFamilyFamily weight
corrected 2024 recall of file-validated 2024 voters; designated targetscorrected 2024 recall of file-validated 2024 voters100%
corrected 2024 recall of file-validated 2024 voters; designated targets and turnout-score groupscorrected 2024 recall of file-validated 2024 voters100%

A family's weight is its share of the estimate; recipes in the same family split that share.

Disclosure

Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having (super PAC, FEC C00933085); conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit.

Population and sample

Likely voters (AFWH house estimate) in the declared poll frame (AZ-01); weighted to the 2022-11-08 comparable electorate at its election-day ages. Historical participants retained in the current file, using current geography and non-age demographics. Race is weighted to the poll's frozen likely electorate by each voter's recorded race, else its verified surname-and-geography estimate, in place of the comparable electorate's per-voter race counts. The AFWH house estimate: the average of the anchored recipes that entered this read (recalled vote among verified 2024 voters and recalled vote among verified 2024 voters plus turnout groups), each on our likely-voter model's turnout step, raked to the poll's electorate targets and to the certified 2024 presidential result through recalled 2024 vote and the Census college share of the geography's registered citizens.

  • AZ-01 2026 general: 516,157 eligible voter-file records, voters drawn at random, 105,545 sent a text invitation.

How we asked

Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey. Languages: English. First invitation Oct 20, 2026, 11:28 AM EDT. First completed interview Oct 20, 2026, 11:38 AM EDT. Last completed interview Oct 23, 2026, 9:59 PM EDT.

Likely voters

No question screened respondents out of the interview. Each respondent's voter-file turnout score was updated by their answer to the vote-intention question (Q12), with an odds ratio of 2.42 between the lowest and highest answers. Respondents who said they had already voted (Q1) counted as certain to vote; a missing answer kept the file score; anyone else whose file score was zero got no weight. Each respondent's weight was multiplied by the updated score before raking to the targets.

Our likely-voter model was set in advance; in backtests it did not clear its pre-registered accuracy bar, so we describe it as unvalidated.

Each respondent's chance of voting starts from a turnout score from our Arizona voter-file model, then is updated by how likely they told us they are to vote. That model has had limited testing: on the one past election we could test it on, the 2024 presidential race, it predicted who voted better than a flat guess, but by less than the standard we set for our models, and it has never been tested on a midterm. We hold no Arizona vote history before 2022. The poll's electorate targets for party registration, gender and age group come from the people who voted in Arizona's November 2022 general election and are still registered in the area polled. Race is weighted to the poll's frozen likely electorate by each voter's recorded race, else its verified surname-and-geography estimate, in place of the comparable electorate's per-voter race counts. Arizona's results therefore carry more uncertainty than the margin of error alone shows.

Arizona's likely-voter estimate rests on a turnout model with limited testing. We tested it on one past election, the 2024 presidential race, and it predicted who voted better than a flat guess, but by less than the standard we set for our models. It has never been tested on a midterm. Arizona's results therefore carry more uncertainty than the margin of error alone shows.

Weighting

The house rule's weighted average of two anchored families of raking recipes. Targets: the last comparable electorate at its election-day ages; retained historical participants in current geography.

Starting weight: the inverse of each sampled voter's recorded selection probability within the stratified draw.

Each respondent's weight combines two families of weighting recipes anchored to the 2024 presidential vote: one to the certified result, one to the 2024 vote of respondents the voter file shows voted, each named candidate held to its certified share. Within a family, the recipes that pass the partisan checks are averaged, each recipe's weights scaled to a mean of 1 first. Each family counts in proportion to how often its average fits voter-file facts no recipe weights to best (2020 and 2022 turnout, registration year and county, and where the state's file of returned ballots is held, the early vote by party) over 500 resamples of respondents: certified 2024 recall (0 recipes), 0.0%; corrected 2024 recall of file-validated 2024 voters (2 recipes), 100.0%. Each recipe is bounded raking on the likely voters with its final weights trimmed at their 1st and 99th percentiles; recipes off the electorate's party mix by more than 3 points or the certified 2024 result by more than 5 were left out. Recipes without a 2024 vote anchor were computed as sensitivities only. A question asked of a random part of the sample is read on the same weights of the respondents who answered it

Each respondent's design weight was kept and raked to the targets with no bound on the weighting adjustment; 0 of 851 respondents' weights were trimmed.

Weighting targets and the weighted sample
VariableGroupTargetWeighted sample
party registrationDemocratic30.1%30.1%
Green0.1%0.1%
Independent3.9%3.9%
Libertarian0.6%0.6%
no party22.7%22.7%
other parties0.5%0.5%
Republican42.1%42.1%
genderwomen49.7%50.6%
men45.4%46.2%
gender not recorded4.8%3.1%
age group18-2910.8%10.8%
30-4418.5%18.5%
45-5415.2%15.2%
55-6420.1%20.1%
65+35.4%35.4%
2024 presidential vote (recalled)Harris43.6%43.7%
did not vote or voted for someone else10.0%7.5%
Trump46.4%48.8%
education (four-year college degree)college degree60.4%60.4%
no college degree38.2%38.2%
not recorded1.4%1.4%
race and ethnicity (voter-file model)Asian or Pacific Islander3.1%3.1%
Black2.9%2.9%
Hispanic10.2%10.2%
other races3.5%3.5%
White80.3%80.3%

Margin of error

851 completed interviews, worth 541 after weighting (design effect 1.57). The margin of error is ±4.2 points at 95 percent confidence. It is 1.96 × √(design effect × 0.25 ÷ n) × 100, for a 50% result among all respondents.

Processing and small groups

Completed interviews only; partial interviews are excluded. A group with fewer than 50 interviews shows no numbers. 50 to 99 interviews are marked "interpret with caution."

  • People who opened the survey and stopped before completing it: 528
  • Duplicate submissions: 469

Limitations

  • The margin of error (4.2 points at 95% confidence, including the design effect) describes sampling error for a result near 50% among all respondents. Results for subgroups carry larger margins, and question wording, coverage and nonresponse can also affect results. The margin of error on the gap between two candidates is roughly twice the poll's margin of error; each race's own figure is given in the fine print with its result.
  • The sponsor is a political committee (a super PAC). Readers should weigh results with that sponsorship in mind.
  • Respondents could be reached only through a telephone number matched to their voter record; voters without a usable number were outside the sample frame.
  • Respondents answered online; people unable or unwilling to complete a web survey are represented only through weighting.
  • 20 respondent(s) had no recorded age group and were not adjusted on that variable.
  • 45 respondent(s) had no recorded race and ethnicity (voter-file model) and were not adjusted on that variable.
  • 9 estimate(s) rest on fewer than 50 respondents and are not shown.
Questionnaire in the order asked
  1. How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 general election in {place}?

    Options: Already voted / Extremely likely / Very likely / Somewhat likely / Somewhat unlikely / Very unlikely / Extremely unlikely / Don't know / No opinion

  2. Who did you vote for in this year's general election for Governor?

    Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”

    Options: Katie Hobbs, Democrat / Andy Biggs, Republican / Risa Lombardo, Green / Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer

  3. If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for?

    Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”

    Options: Katie Hobbs, Democrat / Andy Biggs, Republican / Risa Lombardo, Green / Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party / Someone else / Undecided

  4. If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward?

    Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Undecided”

    Options: Katie Hobbs, Democrat / Andy Biggs, Republican / Risa Lombardo, Green / Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party / Someone else / Still undecided

  5. Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate?

    Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Katie Hobbs, Democrat” or “Andy Biggs, Republican” or “Risa Lombardo, Green” or “Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party”

    Options: Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion

  6. Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives?

    Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”

    Options: Amish Shah, Democrat / Thomas "Jay" Feely IV, Republican / Monica Alponte, Libertarian / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer

  7. If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for?

    Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”

    Options: Amish Shah, Democrat / Thomas "Jay" Feely IV, Republican / Monica Alponte, Libertarian / Someone else / Undecided

  8. If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward?

    Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Undecided”

    Options: Amish Shah, Democrat / Thomas "Jay" Feely IV, Republican / Monica Alponte, Libertarian / Someone else / Still undecided

  9. Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate?

    Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Amish Shah, Democrat” or “Thomas "Jay" Feely IV, Republican” or “Monica Alponte, Libertarian”

    Options: Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion

  10. How much have you thought about this election?

    Options: A great deal / Some / A little / Not at all / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer

  11. When it comes to the November election, would you say you are very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic, not very enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?

    Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”

    Options: Very enthusiastic / Somewhat enthusiastic / Not very enthusiastic / Not at all enthusiastic / Don't know / No opinion

  12. On a scale from 0 to 9, where 0 means you definitely will not vote and 9 means you definitely will vote, how likely are you to vote in this election?

    Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”

    Options: 0 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer

  13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hakeem Jeffries is handling his job as House Democratic Leader?

    Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion

  14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader?

    Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion

  15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?

    Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion

  16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job?

    Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion

  17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job?

    Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion

  18. Should Democrats in Congress stay on their current course, or change direction?

    Options: Stay on their current course / Change direction / Don't know / No opinion

  19. If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else?

    Options: Jeffries should become Speaker / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion

  20. If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, should Chuck Schumer become Majority Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else?

    Options: Schumer should become Majority Leader / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion

  21. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of health insurance companies?

    Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion

  22. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of drug companies?

    Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion

  23. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of electric utility companies?

    Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion

  24. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large companies that own rental homes and apartments?

    Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion

  25. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large banks?

    Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion

  26. Who did you vote for in the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, or did you not vote?

    Options: Donald Trump / Kamala Harris / Someone else / I did not vote / Don't know / No opinion

  27. What is your age?

    Options: 18 to 29 / 30 to 44 / 45 to 54 / 55 to 64 / 65 or older / Prefer not to answer

  28. What is your gender?

    Options: Man / Woman / Nonbinary or another gender / Prefer not to answer

  29. Are you Hispanic or Latino?

    Options: Yes / No / Prefer not to answer

  30. How would you describe your racial background?

    Options: White / Black or African American / Asian or Pacific Islander / Native American or Indigenous / Middle Eastern or North African / Other or multiracial / Prefer not to answer

  31. What is the highest level of school you have completed?

    Options: Less than high school / High school graduate / Vocational or trade school / Some college, no degree / Associate's degree / Bachelor's degree / Graduate or professional degree / Prefer not to answer

  32. Do you own or rent your home?

    Options: Own / Rent / Live with family or in another arrangement / Prefer not to answer

  33. Which one of these costs is hardest for your household to afford right now?

    Options in random order: Housing / Health care / Groceries / Utilities / Transportation / Child care / Education / Another cost / None of these is hard to afford / Don't know / No opinion

  34. Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?

    Options: Democrat / Republican / Independent / Another party / Don't know / No opinion

  35. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat?

    Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Democrat”

    Options: Strong Democrat / Not very strong Democrat / Don't know / No opinion

  36. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican?

    Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Republican”

    Options: Strong Republican / Not very strong Republican / Don't know / No opinion

  37. And as of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or neither?

    Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Independent” or “Another party” or “Don't know / No opinion”

    Options: The Democratic Party / The Republican Party / Neither / Don't know / No opinion

  38. Which one of these words best describes your political views?

    Options in random order: Conservative / Moderate / Liberal / Progressive / Socialist / Libertarian / None of these / Don't know / No opinion

  39. Are you, or is any member of your household, a member of a labor union?

    Options: Yes / No / Prefer not to answer

  40. Which of these best describes your household's total income in 2025, before taxes?

    Options: Under $25,000 / $25,000 to under $50,000 / $50,000 to under $100,000 / $100,000 to under $200,000 / $200,000 or more / Prefer not to answer

  41. Which of these do you think would do the most to bring down inflation?

    Options in random order: The Federal Reserve raising interest rates to slow borrowing and spending / Governments starting businesses that sell alongside private companies, to increase supply / Tax breaks and subsidies for private companies to produce more / Cutting regulations so private companies can produce more / None of these / Don't know / No opinion

  42. Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this?

    Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q43 instead

    Options: Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion

  43. Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. Two that exist today: the U.S. Postal Service, which delivers packages alongside private companies like UPS and FedEx, and the Tennessee Valley Authority, a federally owned company that sells electricity. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this?

    Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q42 instead

    Options: Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion

  44. In which of these areas, if any, would you support governments starting businesses like this? Pick all that apply.

    Options in random order: Building and renting homes / Hospitals and clinics / Child care centers / Making prescription drugs / Processing food / Grocery stores / Refining gasoline / Electric utilities / Internet service / Colleges / None of these / Don't know / No opinion

  45. If governments started businesses like this, do you think prices would be lower, about the same or higher than without them?

    Options: Lower / About the same / Higher / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion

  46. If governments started businesses like this, do you think there would be more for sale, about the same or less than without them?

    Options: More / About the same / Less / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion

  47. If governments started businesses like this, do you think quality would be better, about the same or worse than without them?

    Options: Better / About the same / Worse / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion

  48. Suppose a government-owned business made its costs public. How useful, if at all, would that be for showing whether private companies charge too much?

    Options: Very useful / Somewhat useful / Not very useful / Not at all useful / Don't know / No opinion

  49. If public money were used to start new businesses that sell goods or services, who should own and run them?

    Options in random order: The government should own and run them / Private companies should own and run them / No preference / Public money shouldn't be spent on this / Don't know / No opinion

The full disclosure as plain text

Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having (super PAC, FEC C00933085); conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit. Population: Likely voters (AFWH house estimate) in the declared poll frame (AZ-01); weighted to the 2022-11-08 comparable electorate at its election-day ages. Historical participants retained in the current file, using current geography and non-age demographics. Race is weighted to the poll's frozen likely electorate by each voter's recorded race, else its verified surname-and-geography estimate, in place of the comparable electorate's per-voter race counts. The AFWH house estimate: the average of the anchored recipes that entered this read (recalled vote among verified 2024 voters and recalled vote among verified 2024 voters plus turnout groups), each on our likely-voter model's turnout step, raked to the poll's electorate targets and to the certified 2024 presidential result through recalled 2024 vote and the Census college share of the geography's registered citizens. (AZ-01). Likely-voter rule: No question screened respondents out of the interview. Each respondent's voter-file turnout score was updated by their answer to the vote-intention question (Q12), with an odds ratio of 2.42 between the lowest and highest answers. Respondents who said they had already voted (Q1) counted as certain to vote; a missing answer kept the file score; anyone else whose file score was zero got no weight. Each respondent's weight was multiplied by the updated score before raking to the targets. Our likely-voter model was set in advance; in backtests it did not clear its pre-registered accuracy bar, so we describe it as unvalidated. Sample frame: 516,157 voter-file records in universe "AZ-01 2026 general — model-guided sampling, historical weighting draft" (State: AZ; Office: house; Turnout model: AFWH's Arizona turnout model, trained on the 2022 general election); random draw of 1,083; 105,545 sent a text invitation. Modes: Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey. Languages: English. Interviews completed October 20, 2026 to October 23, 2026. n = 851 completed interviews; 105,545 sampled voters were sent a text invitation; margin of error ±4.2 percentage points at 95% confidence including a design effect of 1.57. Effective sample size 541; the largest weight is 33.2 times the smallest. Weighting: the house rule's weighted average of two anchored families of raking recipes to party registration (Democratic 30.1%, Green 0.1%, Independent 3.9%, Libertarian 0.6%, no party 22.7%, other parties 0.5%, Republican 42.1%); gender (women 49.7%, men 45.4%, gender not recorded 4.8%); age group (18-29 10.8%, 30-44 18.5%, 45-54 15.2%, 55-64 20.1%, 65+ 35.4%); 2024 presidential vote (recalled) (Harris 43.6%, did not vote or voted for someone else 10.0%, Trump 46.4%); education (four-year college degree) (college degree 60.4%, no college degree 38.2%, not recorded 1.4%); race and ethnicity (voter-file model) (Asian or Pacific Islander 3.1%, Black 2.9%, Hispanic 10.2%, other races 3.5%, White 80.3%), from the last comparable electorate at its election-day ages; retained historical participants in current geography; base weights are the inverse of each sampled voter's recorded selection probability within the stratified draw. Estimate: Each respondent's weight combines two families of weighting recipes anchored to the 2024 presidential vote: one to the certified result, one to the 2024 vote of respondents the voter file shows voted, each named candidate held to its certified share. Within a family, the recipes that pass the partisan checks are averaged, each recipe's weights scaled to a mean of 1 first. Each family counts in proportion to how often its average fits voter-file facts no recipe weights to best (2020 and 2022 turnout, registration year and county, and where the state's file of returned ballots is held, the early vote by party) over 500 resamples of respondents: certified 2024 recall (0 recipes), 0.0%; corrected 2024 recall of file-validated 2024 voters (2 recipes), 100.0%. Each recipe is bounded raking on the likely voters with its final weights trimmed at their 1st and 99th percentiles; recipes off the electorate's party mix by more than 3 points or the certified 2024 result by more than 5 were left out. Recipes without a 2024 vote anchor were computed as sensitivities only. A question asked of a random part of the sample is read on the same weights of the respondents who answered it Weight trimming: Each respondent's design weight was kept and raked to the targets with no bound on the weighting adjustment; 0 of 851 respondents' weights were trimmed. Turnout model: Each respondent's chance of voting starts from a turnout score from our Arizona voter-file model, then is updated by how likely they told us they are to vote. That model has had limited testing: on the one past election we could test it on, the 2024 presidential race, it predicted who voted better than a flat guess, but by less than the standard we set for our models, and it has never been tested on a midterm. We hold no Arizona vote history before 2022. The poll's electorate targets for party registration, gender and age group come from the people who voted in Arizona's November 2022 general election and are still registered in the area polled. Race is weighted to the poll's frozen likely electorate by each voter's recorded race, else its verified surname-and-geography estimate, in place of the comparable electorate's per-voter race counts. Arizona's results therefore carry more uncertainty than the margin of error alone shows. Processing: completed interviews only; partial interviews are excluded. Quality checks flagged 528 people who opened the survey and stopped before completing it, 469 duplicate submissions. 244 estimate(s) reported, 9 withheld under the reporting rules. Limitations: The margin of error (4.2 points at 95% confidence, including the design effect) describes sampling error for a result near 50% among all respondents. Results for subgroups carry larger margins, and question wording, coverage and nonresponse can also affect results. The margin of error on the gap between two candidates is roughly twice the poll's margin of error; each race's own figure is given in the fine print with its result. The sponsor is a political committee (a super PAC). Readers should weigh results with that sponsorship in mind. Respondents could be reached only through a telephone number matched to their voter record; voters without a usable number were outside the sample frame. Respondents answered online; people unable or unwilling to complete a web survey are represented only through weighting. 20 respondent(s) had no recorded age group and were not adjusted on that variable. 45 respondent(s) had no recorded race and ethnicity (voter-file model) and were not adjusted on that variable. 9 estimate(s) rest on fewer than 50 respondents and are not shown. Questions, as written (AZ-01 2026 general, version 1): 1. How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 general election in {place}? [Already voted / Extremely likely / Very likely / Somewhat likely / Somewhat unlikely / Very unlikely / Extremely unlikely / Don't know / No opinion] 2. Who did you vote for in this year's general election for Governor? [Katie Hobbs, Democrat / Andy Biggs, Republican / Risa Lombardo, Green / Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) (Candidate order: as on the Arizona ballot (A.R.S. 16-502(E),(H))) 3. If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for? [Katie Hobbs, Democrat / Andy Biggs, Republican / Risa Lombardo, Green / Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party / Someone else / Undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) (Candidate order: as on the Arizona ballot (A.R.S. 16-502(E),(H))) 4. If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? [Katie Hobbs, Democrat / Andy Biggs, Republican / Risa Lombardo, Green / Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party / Someone else / Still undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Undecided”) (Candidate order: as on the Arizona ballot (A.R.S. 16-502(E),(H))) 5. Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate? [Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Katie Hobbs, Democrat” or “Andy Biggs, Republican” or “Risa Lombardo, Green” or “Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party”) 6. Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives? [Amish Shah, Democrat / Thomas "Jay" Feely IV, Republican / Monica Alponte, Libertarian / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) (Candidate order: as on the Arizona ballot (A.R.S. 16-502(E),(H))) 7. If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for? [Amish Shah, Democrat / Thomas "Jay" Feely IV, Republican / Monica Alponte, Libertarian / Someone else / Undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) (Candidate order: as on the Arizona ballot (A.R.S. 16-502(E),(H))) 8. If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? [Amish Shah, Democrat / Thomas "Jay" Feely IV, Republican / Monica Alponte, Libertarian / Someone else / Still undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Undecided”) (Candidate order: as on the Arizona ballot (A.R.S. 16-502(E),(H))) 9. Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate? [Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Amish Shah, Democrat” or “Thomas "Jay" Feely IV, Republican” or “Monica Alponte, Libertarian”) 10. How much have you thought about this election? [A great deal / Some / A little / Not at all / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer] 11. When it comes to the November election, would you say you are very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic, not very enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? [Very enthusiastic / Somewhat enthusiastic / Not very enthusiastic / Not at all enthusiastic / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) 12. On a scale from 0 to 9, where 0 means you definitely will not vote and 9 means you definitely will vote, how likely are you to vote in this election? [0 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hakeem Jeffries is handling his job as House Democratic Leader? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] (Q13–Q17 were asked in a random order for each respondent) 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] 18. Should Democrats in Congress stay on their current course, or change direction? [Stay on their current course / Change direction / Don't know / No opinion] 19. If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else? [Jeffries should become Speaker / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion] 20. If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, should Chuck Schumer become Majority Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else? [Schumer should become Majority Leader / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion] 21. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of health insurance companies? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] (Q21–Q25 were asked in a random order for each respondent) 22. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of drug companies? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] 23. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of electric utility companies? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] 24. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large companies that own rental homes and apartments? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] 25. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large banks? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] 26. Who did you vote for in the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, or did you not vote? [Donald Trump / Kamala Harris / Someone else / I did not vote / Don't know / No opinion] 27. What is your age? [18 to 29 / 30 to 44 / 45 to 54 / 55 to 64 / 65 or older / Prefer not to answer] 28. What is your gender? [Man / Woman / Nonbinary or another gender / Prefer not to answer] 29. Are you Hispanic or Latino? [Yes / No / Prefer not to answer] 30. How would you describe your racial background? [White / Black or African American / Asian or Pacific Islander / Native American or Indigenous / Middle Eastern or North African / Other or multiracial / Prefer not to answer] 31. What is the highest level of school you have completed? [Less than high school / High school graduate / Vocational or trade school / Some college, no degree / Associate's degree / Bachelor's degree / Graduate or professional degree / Prefer not to answer] 32. Do you own or rent your home? [Own / Rent / Live with family or in another arrangement / Prefer not to answer] 33. Which one of these costs is hardest for your household to afford right now? [Housing / Health care / Groceries / Utilities / Transportation / Child care / Education / Another cost / None of these is hard to afford / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated) 34. Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party? [Democrat / Republican / Independent / Another party / Don't know / No opinion] 35. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat? [Strong Democrat / Not very strong Democrat / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Democrat”) 36. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican? [Strong Republican / Not very strong Republican / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Republican”) 37. And as of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or neither? [The Democratic Party / The Republican Party / Neither / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Independent” or “Another party” or “Don't know / No opinion”) 38. Which one of these words best describes your political views? [Conservative / Moderate / Liberal / Progressive / Socialist / Libertarian / None of these / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated) 39. Are you, or is any member of your household, a member of a labor union? [Yes / No / Prefer not to answer] 40. Which of these best describes your household's total income in 2025, before taxes? [Under $25,000 / $25,000 to under $50,000 / $50,000 to under $100,000 / $100,000 to under $200,000 / $200,000 or more / Prefer not to answer] 41. Which of these do you think would do the most to bring down inflation? [The Federal Reserve raising interest rates to slow borrowing and spending / Governments starting businesses that sell alongside private companies, to increase supply / Tax breaks and subsidies for private companies to produce more / Cutting regulations so private companies can produce more / None of these / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated) 42. Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this? [Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q43 instead) (source of its opening sentence: AFWH's own wording, written for this poll (AFWH's public-business question module, October 15, 2026).) 43. Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. Two that exist today: the U.S. Postal Service, which delivers packages alongside private companies like UPS and FedEx, and the Tennessee Valley Authority, a federally owned company that sells electricity. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this? [Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q42 instead) (source of its opening sentence: AFWH's own wording, written for this poll (AFWH's public-business question module, October 15, 2026). The two examples: the U.S. Postal Service is an independent establishment of the executive branch, 39 U.S.C. 201 (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/39/201); the Tennessee Valley Authority is a corporate agency of the United States (https://www.tva.com/about-tva).) 44. In which of these areas, if any, would you support governments starting businesses like this? Pick all that apply. [Building and renting homes / Hospitals and clinics / Child care centers / Making prescription drugs / Processing food / Grocery stores / Refining gasoline / Electric utilities / Internet service / Colleges / None of these / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated) (asked only in the web survey and live-interviewer calls) 45. If governments started businesses like this, do you think prices would be lower, about the same or higher than without them? [Lower / About the same / Higher / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion] 46. If governments started businesses like this, do you think there would be more for sale, about the same or less than without them? [More / About the same / Less / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion] 47. If governments started businesses like this, do you think quality would be better, about the same or worse than without them? [Better / About the same / Worse / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion] 48. Suppose a government-owned business made its costs public. How useful, if at all, would that be for showing whether private companies charge too much? [Very useful / Somewhat useful / Not very useful / Not at all useful / Don't know / No opinion] 49. If public money were used to start new businesses that sell goods or services, who should own and run them? [The government should own and run them / Private companies should own and run them / No preference / Public money shouldn't be spent on this / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated)

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