October 20–23, 2026
Arizona
Crosstabs
Pick any question in this poll and see how each group of likely voters answered it.
Q1How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 general election in {place}?
Base: Likely voters (AFWH house estimate), n = 2,686. Includes those who already voted.
Words in braces were filled in for each respondent.
Hispanic of any race. Other: Asian, Pacific Islander, Native American, multiracial and other races. The party respondents said they identify with, or their voter-file party where they did not say. The party recorded on each respondent's voter-file record. Asked only of those who had not yet voted. The word respondents chose to describe their political views.
| All | Gender | Age | Race | College degree | Race by education | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Answer | Total | Men | Women | 18‑29 | 30‑44 | 45‑64 | 65+ | White | Hispanic | Black and other | College degree | No college degree | White college | White non‑college | Non‑white |
| Already voted | 59 | 57 | 62 | 51 | 53 | 59 | 67 | 62 | 57 | 59 | 65 | 56 | 69 | 56 | 57 |
| Extremely likely | 32 | 35 | 30 | 30 | 31 | 36 | 29 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 30 | 33 | 26 | 34 | 32 |
| Very likely | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Somewhat likely | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | * | 2 | 3 |
| Somewhat unlikely | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 |
| Very unlikely | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | - | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | * | 1 |
| Extremely unlikely | 1 | 2 | * | 8 | 1 | * | * | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 2 | * | 3 | 1 |
| Don't know / No opinion | 1 | 1 | 1 | - | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | - | * | 2 | * | 2 | 2 |
| Interviews (n) | 2,686 | 1,243 | 1,354 | 107 | 345 | 896 | 1,277 | 2,052 | 309 | 176 | 1,553 | 1,085 | 1,239 | 809 | 485 |
| Margin of error (±) | 4.0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 14.7 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 9.9 | 13.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 8.0 |
All likely votersn = 2,686 · ±4.0
Menn = 1,243 · ±5.8
Womenn = 1,354 · ±5.6
How to read the table. Percent of likely voters in each group, weighted; n is the number of interviews, unweighted. Each column's margin of error is the 95% margin on one share, design effect included; the margin on a gap between two answers is larger.
"*" less than 0.5%. "-" zero. "n<50" fewer than 50 respondents: not shown. "†" 50 to 99 respondents: interpret with caution. Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.
Every question, every group. The PDF and the CSV carry all of this poll's questions by all of its groups, with the full method statement. Methodology