Governor
Hobbs +5.1
(D)
47.4%
(R)
42.3%
Leads, within the margin of error.
October 20–23, 2026
Arizona
Hobbs leads Biggs for governor
Races
(D)
(R)
Governor
Katie Hobbs (D)47.4%
Andy Biggs (R)42.3%
Undecided4.5%
Someone else2.5%
Prefer not to answer1.4%
Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party1.5%
Risa Lombardo (G)0.4%
Did not vote in this race0.0%
Early voters were asked how they voted. Shares may not add to 100 because of rounding. A dash means the release doesn't report that answer.
All likely voters: 2,686, margin of error ±3.7 points. Democrats only: the 1,012 who call themselves Democrats on the party question, whatever their voter-file registration. A smaller group has a larger margin of error. All our polls
All likely voters: 2,686, margin of error ±3.7 points. Favorable and unfavorable each add “strongly” and “somewhat.”
Arizona poll: Hobbs leads Biggs for governor
Katie Hobbs leads Andy Biggs for governor in Arizona, 47.4% to 42.3%, in our poll of 2,686 likely voters, taken October 20 to 23. That's within the margin of error. The poll's margin of error is ±3.7 points. Undecided and other answers: 10.4%.
Independents favor Hobbs, 49.5% to 28.9%. Independents are respondents who did not call themselves a Democrat or a Republican on the party question (they said independent, another party or don't know), whatever their voter-file registration. Women favor Hobbs, 50.5% to 39.8%. Men favor Biggs, 46.1% to 44.9%.
51.2% of likely voters want someone other than Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker if Democrats win the House; 18.2% want Jeffries. Among Democrats, 39.8% want someone else. His job approval is underwater: 59.2% disapprove and 30.5% approve.
65.4% of likely voters want someone other than Chuck Schumer as Senate majority leader if Democrats win the Senate; 9.2% want Schumer. Among Democrats, 61.9% want someone else. His job approval is underwater: 66.7% disapprove and 25.2% approve.
How each group answered every question: gender, age, race, education, party, ideology, 2024 vote, turnout and geography.
Groups of fewer than 50 interviews are not shown; 50 to 99 are marked for caution.
- Likely voters
- 2,686 includes our AZ-01 and AZ-06 polls
- Margin of error
- ±3.7 points includes the design effect, 3.77
- Field dates
- Oct 20–23, 2026 first invitation to last interview, Eastern time
- Mode
- Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey
- Sponsor
- A Fight Worth Having super PAC, FEC C00933085
Disclosure. Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having (super PAC, FEC C00933085); conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit. Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey. Arizona statewide likely voters, n = 2,686, margin of error ±3.7 points including the design effect.
Photos. Cropped, cut out from their backgrounds and tinted for this page.
- Katie Hobbs: Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; cropped, background removed, converted to grayscale. Source
- Andy Biggs: Gage Skidmore / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; cropped, background removed, converted to grayscale. Source
- Hakeem Jeffries: Office of Representative Hakeem Jeffries (public domain). Source
- Chuck Schumer: U.S. Senate Photographic Studio/Jeff McEvoy (public domain); source: schumer.senate.gov. Source
- Donald Trump: Daniel Torok (public domain). Source
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