October 20–23, 2026

Florida

Donalds leads Jolly for governor

Poll of 4,823 likely voters in Florida · Released October 25, 2026 · Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having (super PAC, FEC C00933085); conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit

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Races

Governor

Donalds +5.3

Byron Donalds
(R)

49.2^%

David Jolly
(D)

43.9^%

Leads, outside the margin of error.

U.S. Senate

Moody +6.8

Ashley Moody
(R)

49.6^%

Angie Nixon
(D)

42.8^%

Leads, outside the margin of error.

All candidates

Governor

Byron Donalds (R)49.2%

David Jolly (D)43.9%

Undecided3.9%

Prefer not to answer1.2%

Someone else0.8%

Scott Eckhard Jewett (L)0.4%

Frank J. Russo, No Party Affiliation0.3%

Jeffrey Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto, No Party Affiliation0.2%

Charles Burkett, No Party Affiliation0.1%

Moliere "Moe" Dimanche, No Party Affiliation0.1%

Did not vote in this race0.1%

Dean Ocean Abrams, No Party Affiliation0.0%

U.S. Senate

Ashley Moody (R)49.6%

Angie Nixon (D)42.8%

Undecided4.1%

Prefer not to answer1.6%

Neil J. Gillespie, No Party Affiliation1.1%

Someone else0.6%

Did not vote in this race0.1%

Early voters were asked how they voted. Shares may not add to 100 because of rounding. A dash means the release doesn't report that answer.

Leaders and Congress

Hakeem Jeffries

Job approvalNet −30 · Democrats: Net +43

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hakeem Jeffries is handling his job as House Democratic Leader?”

All likely voters

Approve 30.9%Disapprove 61.2%Not sure

Democrats only

Approve 67.9%Disapprove 25.1%Not sure

Should he become Speaker?Someone else +28 · Democrats: Jeffries +9

“If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else?”

All likely voters

Jeffries 20.3%Someone else 48.4%Doesn't matter or not sure

Democrats only

Jeffries 44.3%Someone else 35.7%Doesn't matter or not sure

Chuck Schumer

Job approvalNet −43 · Democrats: Net +24

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader?”

All likely voters

Approve 25.4%Disapprove 68.1%Not sure

Democrats only

Approve 58.1%Disapprove 34.4%Not sure

Should he become Majority Leader?Someone else +53 · Democrats: Someone else +30

“If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, should Chuck Schumer become Majority Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else?”

All likely voters

Schumer 12.1%Someone else 65.3%Doesn't matter or not sure

Democrats only

Schumer 26.9%Someone else 57.1%Doesn't matter or not sure

Donald Trump

Job approvalNet −5 · Democrats: Net −94

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?”

All likely voters

Approve 47.0%Disapprove 51.6%Not sure

Democrats only

Approve 2.4%Disapprove 96.2%Not sure

Democrats in Congress

Job approvalNet −28 · Democrats: Net +57

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job?”

All likely voters

Approve 34.2%Disapprove 62.4%Not sure

Democrats only

Approve 76.9%Disapprove 20.1%Not sure

Republicans in Congress

Job approvalNet −10 · Democrats: Net −92

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job?”

All likely voters

Approve 43.9%Disapprove 54.1%Not sure

Democrats only

Approve 3.5%Disapprove 95.3%Not sure

All likely voters: 4,823, margin of error ±2.5 points. Democrats only: the 1,596 who call themselves Democrats on the party question, whatever their voter-file registration. A smaller group has a larger margin of error. All our polls

Views of institutions

Health insurance companies

FavorabilityNet −51

“Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of health insurance companies?”

All likely voters

Favorable 21.9%Unfavorable 73.1%Not familiar or no opinion

Drug companies

FavorabilityNet −57

“Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of drug companies?”

All likely voters

Favorable 16.9%Unfavorable 74.2%Not familiar or no opinion

Electric utility companies

FavorabilityNet −20

“Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of electric utility companies?”

All likely voters

Favorable 33.7%Unfavorable 53.5%Not familiar or no opinion

Large companies that own rental homes and apartments

FavorabilityNet −62

“Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large companies that own rental homes and apartments?”

All likely voters

Favorable 11.4%Unfavorable 73.8%Not familiar or no opinion

Large banks

FavorabilityNet −28

“Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large banks?”

All likely voters

Favorable 28.2%Unfavorable 56.3%Not familiar or no opinion

All likely voters: 4,823, margin of error ±2.5 points. Favorable and unfavorable each add “strongly” and “somewhat.”

Florida poll: Moody leads Nixon for Senate

Ashley Moody leads Angie Nixon for Senate in Florida, 49.6% to 42.8%, in our poll of 4,823 likely voters, taken October 20 to 23. That lead is outside the margin of error. The poll's margin of error is ±2.5 points. Undecided and other answers: 7.6%.

Byron Donalds leads David Jolly for governor, 49.2% to 43.9%.

Independents favor Nixon, 52.9% to 30.8%. Independents are respondents who did not call themselves a Democrat or a Republican on the party question (they said independent, another party or don't know), whatever their voter-file registration. Women favor Moody, 51.2% to 41.6%. Men favor Moody, 48.4% to 44.4%.

48.4% of likely voters want someone other than Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker if Democrats win the House; 20.3% want Jeffries. Among Democrats, 35.7% want someone else. His job approval is underwater: 61.2% disapprove and 30.9% approve.

65.3% of likely voters want someone other than Chuck Schumer as Senate majority leader if Democrats win the Senate; 12.1% want Schumer. Among Democrats, 57.1% want someone else. His job approval is underwater: 68.1% disapprove and 25.4% approve.

Results by group

How each group answered every question: gender, age, race, education, party, ideology, 2024 vote, turnout and geography.

Open the crosstabs

Groups of fewer than 50 interviews are not shown; 50 to 99 are marked for caution.

Likely voters: 4,823
Margin of error: ±2.5 points
Field dates: Oct 20–23, 2026
Mode: Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey
Sponsor: A Fight Worth Having

Disclosure. Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having (super PAC, FEC C00933085); conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit. Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey. Florida statewide likely voters, n = 4,823, margin of error ±2.5 points including the design effect.

Full methodology · How we poll

Photos. Cropped, cut out from their backgrounds and tinted for this page.

Byron Donalds: United States Congress (public domain); source: twitter.com. Source
David Jolly: United States Government Publishing Office (Congressional Pictorial Directory) (public domain); source: memberguide.gpo.gov. Source
Ashley Moody: United States Senate Photography Service (public domain); source: moody.senate.gov. Source
Angie Nixon: Florida House of Representatives (public domain); source: flhouse.gov (Hi-res file). Source
Hakeem Jeffries: Office of Representative Hakeem Jeffries (public domain). Source
Chuck Schumer: U.S. Senate Photographic Studio/Jeff McEvoy (public domain); source: schumer.senate.gov. Source
Donald Trump: Daniel Torok (public domain). Source