This memorandum by Redbox Research senior analyst Peter Feld covers the Hakeem Jeffries findings from our three district polls. The complete polls: NY-15, AZ-04, MO-01.

Memorandum

TO:	Corbin Trent A Fight Worth Having
FROM:	Peter Feld, Ph.D Redbox Research
RE:	Findings from polling on Hakeem Jeffries and congressional leadership among Democratic primary voters in three districts (NY15, AZ04, and MO01)
DATE:	July 26, 2026

As part of our 2026 polling in Democratic primaries, Redbox Research (the polling unit of A Fight Worth Having) asked voters about Democratic congressional leadership in 3 districts.

• In NY15 from April 28-May 10 we polled 422 likely voters in the June 23 primary.

• In AZ04 from July 6-8 we polled 424 likely voters in the July 21 primary.

• In MO01 from July 19-20 we polled 503 likely voters in the August 4 primary.

These polls were fielded for Redbox Research by Braun Research of Princeton, NJ using text to web. The surveys had a margin of error of ±4.9% for NY and AZ, and ±4.4% for MO. The NY and MO samples were minimally weighted based upon recent turnout; AZ was unweighted.

In three congressional districts, in widely dispersed regions of the US, Democratic primary voters show significant concerns with their party’s current leadership in Congress and momentum for new leadership. Signs of these concerns include:

• Weak favorability ratings — outside New York City — for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

• A plurality of voters in each of the two non-NYC districts opt to replace Jeffries as Democratic leader.

• Overwhelming response in all districts we polled to criticisms of Jeffries’s performance as leader: his support from AIPAC and votes for weapons to Israel, his failure to pass Medicare for All, breaking Democratic affordability promises like paid family leave and the Child Tax Credit, insufficiently fighting Trump, and tacitly supporting the Iran war.

• Majority support to replace Jeffries after reading these criticisms in all three districts, including from Black voters and those who back moderate congressional candidates.

Political Environment

In the three districts we studied from New York to Missouri to Arizona, national progressive figures Bernie Sanders, AOC, and Zohran Mamdani (who has rocketed near the top) are more popular with the Democratic base than establishment figures, including Joe Biden, Jeffries, Chuck Schumer, and their own House members.

• In Missouri 1, Zohran Mamdani is more popular (66% favorable) with Democratic primary voters than Joe Biden (65%) or their own Congressman, Wesley Bell (58%); DSA (52%) is more popular than Hakeem Jeffries (50%); and Chuck Schumer is in deep negative territory (35% favorable, 56% unfavorable). Here, Jeffries shows no edge with Black voters. His ratings are 51% favorable to 39% unfavorable from white voters, and a similar 51% favorable to 35% unfavorable with Black voters.

• In New York 15, Jeffries (66% favorable) and Schumer (65%) are liked, along with incumbent Ritchie Torres (69%), but AOC is more so (76%). Jeffries has no greater base with Black voters than white, scoring 76% favorable from Black voters and 75% from whites, and a more modest 59% from Latino voters. But AOC is more popular than Jeffries with all three groups, winning 79% from Black and white voters alike, and 74% from Latino voters. A narrow 54% majority of voters under 50 here like Jeffries, while he is liked by 61% of voters 50 to 64, and 86% of those aged 65 and over.

• In Arizona 4, Bernie Sanders, AOC, and Mamdani far outpace incumbent Congressman Greg Stanton and Hakeem Jeffries. Here, voters under 50 are negative toward Jeffries: Among those 18-34, Jeffries is 28% favorable, 45% unfavorable. Among those 35-49 he fares even worse: 57% unfavorable, 28% favorable. However, older voters love Jeffries: he scores 62%-20% with voters 50-64, and 73%-17% among voters 65 and over.

Support to Replace Jeffries

“If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives this year, should Hakeem Jeffries continue to serve as the House Democratic Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else?”

A plurality of voters in Arizona 4 and Missouri 1 — two districts that have elected Jeffries-aligned members — say Democrats in Congress should replace Jeffries as leader if they win control this year. In New York 15, near his home base and represented by Jeffries ally Ritchie Torres, voters support Jeffries continuing — but change to opposition after being presented with his record.

The Jeffries base among Black voters is soft:

• In New York’s NY15, close to his home, Jeffries holds 74% of Black voters’ support to continue in office, while 20% want him replaced. (White voters are about as supportive, with 70% choosing to keep Jeffries and 20% to replace him — though Latino voters say so by a narrower 52%-37% margin.) But after learning about his record, Black voters say to replace Jeffries, by a 46% to 42% plurality.

• In Missouri 1, a 43%-28% plurality of Black voters choose to keep Jeffries. But after they learn about his record, a two-to-one 51% to 26% majority of Black voters say Jeffries should be replaced as House leader.

• In Missouri 1, while opposition to Jeffries is strongest among the youngest voters (under 35), by a 65%-14% margin, all voter groups under 65 want new Democratic leadership. Voters 35-49 want to replace Jeffries by 57% to 22%, and even those 50 to 64 say to replace him (43% to 37%). Only voters 65 and over in Missouri 1 want to keep Jeffries as leader (49% to 32%).

• In Missouri 1, a majority of Democratic primary men (56%) think Jeffries should be replaced; only one in three (33%) want him to continue. In contrast, women want Jeffries to continue as leader, by a 41%-33% plurality.

Messaging to Replace Jeffries

Six criticisms of Hakeem Jeffries’s performance were tested in all three of the districts we have polled to date. In each, every one of these tested concerns was rated as a strong reason to replace Jeffries by a majority of Democratic voters, even with some differences in the rankings:

• In New York 15, voters show the greatest concern about Jeffries’s failure to lead the fight to pass Medicare for All and his support from AIPAC. But they also rate his failure on Democrats’ affordability promises (Medicare expansion, paid family leave, Child Tax Credit expansion and the minimum wage) and weakness in fighting Trump as strong reasons to replace him.

• In Arizona 4, top-rated reasons to replace Jeffries are his failure on Medicare for All, and his repeated votes to fund ICE. However a minimum of six in ten voters rate the other Jeffries concerns — failing to fight Trump sufficiently, tacitly supporting the Iran war, breaking affordability promises, and arms to Israel — as strong reasons to replace him.

• In Missouri, Jeffries raises the greatest concern with his votes for ICE funding. But a majority of voters agrees the other tested concerns are strong reasons to replace him, including failing to fight Trump, breaking affordability promises, supporting the Iran war, arms to Israel, and failing to lead on Medicare for All. As noted in the previous section, Black voters share the concerns raised by these criticisms.

• In New York 15, in his own back yard, the top-rated Jeffries concern according to Black voters is his support for arms to Israel — two thirds (68%) call this a strong reason to replace him, and a similar 68% say this about his broken affordability promises. Nearly as many Black voters say that his failure to fight Trump (65%) and failure on Medicare for All (65%) are strong reasons for him to be replaced.

• In Missouri 1, Black voters’ top Jeffries concerns are funding ICE (52% strong reason to replace him), failing to fight Trump (52%) and failing on Medicare for All (51%).

Key Persuasion Targets for Replacing Jeffries

The voter groups who switch toward opting to replace Jeffries after seeing these criticisms vary by district.

In NY 15, overall 21% of voters change their mind and opt to replace Jeffries, above the initial 31%. That number includes:

• 29% of women and 12% of men, 33% of women 50 and over, 39% of Black women, and 26% of Latina women.

• 26% of Black voters, and 32% of Black voters under 50.

In AZ 4, overall 16% of voters change their mind after criticisms and opt to replace Jeffries, above the initial 45%. Those include:

• 10% of men and 25% of women.

• 22% of voters 65 and over.

In MO 1, overall 10% of voters change their mind to support replacing Jeffries, above the initial 43%. That includes:

• 24% of women, and 34% of women under 50.

• 10% of white voters, and 13% of Black voters — and 27% of Black voters under 50.

Summary

It’s bad news for Hakeem Jeffries that his support to continue as leader is underwater in the two districts we polled outside New York City. It’s worse news that in all three districts, a majority of Democratic primary voters choose to replace him after learning about his record. Perhaps most concerning, a majority of voters in all three districts consider six different criticisms of his record as strong reasons for Democrats to pick a new leader if they win control of Congress this year.

Our findings strongly suggest that offering new leadership is an important way for Democrats to win trust from voters that they will at last deliver on their agenda. Our surveys also refute the belief that Black voters will stick with Jeffries in the face of these concerns, since many already support new leadership, and many more do so after they learn about his performance.

About Us

A FIGHT WORTH HAVING (AFWH) is the new PAC founded by CORBIN TRENT, co-founder of Justice Democrats and Brand New Congress, a former senior campaign staffer for Bernie Sanders, and communications director for the successful 2018 congressional campaign of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

REDBOX RESEARCH is the new polling unit of AFWH. Polling projects are managed by senior analyst PETER FELD, Ph.D, an alumnus of leading Democratic polling firms including Lake Research and Global Strategy Group, and ex-research director and digital editor at Condé Nast.

Our polls are fielded by BRAUN RESEARCH of Princeton, NJ, a leading survey firm whose longtime clients include the highly regarded Fox News and Monmouth University polls.