RedBox Research · 2026

AZ-06 2026 general

Survey resultsOct 24, 2026837 interviewsLikely voters (AFWH house estimate)

Survey results

Population: Likely voters (AFWH house estimate). The AFWH house estimate: the average of the anchored recipes that entered this read (recalled vote among verified 2024 voters and recalled vote among verified 2024 voters plus turnout groups), each on our likely-voter model's turnout step, raked to the poll's electorate targets and to the certified 2024 presidential result through recalled 2024 vote and the Census college share of the geography's registered citizens.

Weighted responses. Undecided answers are shown separately. A lead is called only when it is larger than the sampling margin widened by a 90% total-error band; otherwise it is within error.

Governor

Governor ballot choice

Within error Katie Hobbs leads Andy Biggs, 49.6% to 41.2%, within the margin of error (n = 837; the poll's margin of error ±4.8 points). Other answers, including undecided: 9.1%.

Question details

Response	Percent	Interviews	95% margin
Katie Hobbs, Democrat	49.6%	483	±4.8 pp
Andy Biggs, Republican	41.2%	292	±4.7 pp
Undecided	4.9%	31	±2.1 pp
Prefer not to answer	1.6%	12	±1.2 pp
Someone else	1.4%	10	±1.1 pp
Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party	0.7%	5	±0.8 pp
Did not vote in this race	0.3%	1	±0.5 pp
Risa Lombardo, Green	0.1%	3	±0.4 pp

Katie Hobbs, Democrat49.6%

Andy Biggs, Republican41.2%

Undecided4.9%

Prefer not to answer1.6%

Someone else1.4%

Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party0.7%

Did not vote in this race0.3%

Risa Lombardo, Green0.1%

House ballot choice

Within error JoAnna Mendoza has a narrow lead over Juan Ciscomani, 47.2% to 42.6%, within the margin of error (n = 837; the poll's margin of error ±4.8 points). Other answers, including undecided: 10.2%.

Question details

Response	Percent	Interviews	95% margin
JoAnna Mendoza, Democrat	47.2%	468	±4.8 pp
Juan Ciscomani, Republican	42.6%	309	±4.7 pp
Undecided	5.5%	23	±2.2 pp
Prefer not to answer	1.6%	12	±1.2 pp
Someone else	1.3%	10	±1.1 pp
Jereme Lance Peters, Libertarian	1.1%	9	±1.0 pp
Gary Swing, Green	0.4%	5	±0.6 pp
Did not vote in this race	0.3%	1	±0.5 pp

JoAnna Mendoza, Democrat47.2%

Juan Ciscomani, Republican42.6%

Undecided5.5%

Prefer not to answer1.6%

Someone else1.3%

Jereme Lance Peters, Libertarian1.1%

Gary Swing, Green0.4%

Did not vote in this race0.3%

Explore responses

QuestionBreak down by

gender	Katie Hobbs, Democrat	Andy Biggs, Republican	Undecided	Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party	Someone else	Prefer not to answer	Risa Lombardo, Green	Did not vote in this race
All respondents	49.6%	41.2%	4.9%	0.7%	1.4%	1.6%	0.1%	0.3%
Women	58.6%	33.8%	5.4%	0.9%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%	—
Men	41.3%	52.1%	2.6%	0.5%	2.1%	0.5%	0.1%	0.7%
Unknown	—Effective base too small	—Effective base too small	—Effective base too small	—	—	—Effective base too small	—Effective base too small	—

* Small sample. A dash means the estimate is withheld because too few interviews support it; the reason is shown. Percentages may not total 100 because of rounding.

Methodology

Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having (super PAC, FEC C00933085); conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit.

Field dates: Oct 20–23, 2026
Interviews: 837
Collected by: Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey
Margin of error: ±4.8 pts
Design effect: 2.01

1.96 × √(design effect × 0.25 ÷ n) × 100, for a 50% result among all respondents

Population

Likely voters (AFWH house estimate) in the declared poll frame (AZ-06); weighted to the 2022-11-08 comparable electorate at its election-day ages. Historical participants retained in the current file, using current geography and non-age demographics. Race is weighted to the poll's frozen likely electorate by each voter's recorded race, else its verified surname-and-geography estimate, in place of the comparable electorate's per-voter race counts. The AFWH house estimate: the average of the anchored recipes that entered this read (recalled vote among verified 2024 voters and recalled vote among verified 2024 voters plus turnout groups), each on our likely-voter model's turnout step, raked to the poll's electorate targets and to the certified 2024 presidential result through recalled 2024 vote and the Census college share of the geography's registered citizens.

Sample frame and selection

AZ-06 2026 general — scored waves electorate (536,450 eligible records). Voters selected at random (draw sized for 1,052 completes). 74,446 sent a text invitation.State: AZ · Office: U.S. House Arizona District 6 · Turnout model: AFWH's Arizona turnout model, trained on the 2022 general election

Modes

Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey

Languages

English

Weighting

The house rule's weighted average of two anchored families of raking recipes, weights bounded between null and null. Targets: the last comparable electorate at its election-day ages; retained historical participants in current geography. [object Object]

Processing and quality

Completed interviews only; partial interviews are excluded.

People who opened the survey and stopped before completing it: 503
Duplicate submissions: 476
Speeder: 3

7 estimates are withheld because their base is too small to report.

Weighting targets and weighted sample
Variable	Category	Target	Weighted sample
Party registration	democrat	34.6%	34.6%
	green	0.1%	0.1%
	independent	5.5%	5.5%
	libertarian	0.5%	0.5%
	No Party	19.0%	19.0%
	other	0.8%	0.8%
	republican	39.4%	39.4%
Gender	Women	50.4%	50.5%
	Men	45.1%	45.2%
	Unknown	4.4%	4.4%
Age group	18-29	7.7%	7.7%
	30-44	15.8%	15.8%
	45-54	12.4%	12.4%
	55-64	18.7%	18.7%
	65+	45.4%	45.4%
2024 presidential vote (recalled)	dem	46.2%	46.6%
	Notvoted Other	6.9%	8.9%
	rep	46.9%	44.5%
Education (four-year college degree)	college	43.6%	43.6%
	Non College	54.4%	54.4%
	unknown	2.0%	2.0%
Race and ethnicity (voter-file model)	Asian or Pacific Islander	2.0%	2.0%
	Black	3.6%	3.6%
	Hispanic	18.1%	18.1%
	Other	3.2%	3.2%
	White	73.1%	73.1%

Limitations

The margin of error (4.8 points at 95% confidence, including the design effect) describes sampling error for a result near 50% among all respondents. Results for subgroups carry larger margins, and question wording, coverage and nonresponse can also affect results. The margin of error on the gap between two candidates is roughly twice the poll's margin of error; each race's own figure is given in the fine print with its result.
The sponsor is a political committee (a super PAC). Readers should weigh results with that sponsorship in mind.
Respondents could be reached only through a telephone number matched to their voter record; voters without a usable number were outside the sample frame.
Respondents answered online; people unable or unwilling to complete a web survey are represented only through weighting.
20 respondent(s) had no recorded age group and were not adjusted on that variable.
43 respondent(s) had no recorded race and ethnicity (voter-file model) and were not adjusted on that variable.
7 estimate(s) rest on fewer than 50 respondents and are not shown.

Questionnaire in the order asked

How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 general election in {place}?
Options: Already voted / Extremely likely / Very likely / Somewhat likely / Somewhat unlikely / Very unlikely / Extremely unlikely / Don't know / No opinion
Who did you vote for in this year's general election for Governor?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”
Options in random order: Andy Biggs, Republican / Katie Hobbs, Democrat / Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party / Risa Lombardo, Green / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”
Options in random order: Andy Biggs, Republican / Katie Hobbs, Democrat / Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party / Risa Lombardo, Green / Someone else / Undecided
If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Undecided”
Options in random order: Andy Biggs, Republican / Katie Hobbs, Democrat / Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party / Risa Lombardo, Green / Someone else / Still undecided
Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Andy Biggs, Republican” or “Katie Hobbs, Democrat” or “Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party” or “Risa Lombardo, Green”
Options: Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion
Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”
Options in random order: Juan Ciscomani, Republican / JoAnna Mendoza, Democrat / Jereme Lance Peters, Libertarian / Gary Swing, Green / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”
Options in random order: Juan Ciscomani, Republican / JoAnna Mendoza, Democrat / Jereme Lance Peters, Libertarian / Gary Swing, Green / Someone else / Undecided
If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Undecided”
Options in random order: Juan Ciscomani, Republican / JoAnna Mendoza, Democrat / Jereme Lance Peters, Libertarian / Gary Swing, Green / Someone else / Still undecided
Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Juan Ciscomani, Republican” or “JoAnna Mendoza, Democrat” or “Jereme Lance Peters, Libertarian” or “Gary Swing, Green”
Options: Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion
How much have you thought about this election?
Options: A great deal / Some / A little / Not at all / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer
When it comes to the November election, would you say you are very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic, not very enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”
Options: Very enthusiastic / Somewhat enthusiastic / Not very enthusiastic / Not at all enthusiastic / Don't know / No opinion
On a scale from 0 to 9, where 0 means you definitely will not vote and 9 means you definitely will vote, how likely are you to vote in this election?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”
Options: 0 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hakeem Jeffries is handling his job as House Democratic Leader?
Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader?
Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job?
Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job?
Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
Should Democrats in Congress stay on their current course, or change direction?
Options: Stay on their current course / Change direction / Don't know / No opinion
If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else?
Options: Jeffries should become Speaker / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion
If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, should Chuck Schumer become Majority Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else?
Options: Schumer should become Majority Leader / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of health insurance companies?
Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of drug companies?
Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of electric utility companies?
Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large companies that own rental homes and apartments?
Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large banks?
Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
Who did you vote for in the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, or did you not vote?
Options: Donald Trump / Kamala Harris / Someone else / I did not vote / Don't know / No opinion
What is your age?
Options: 18 to 29 / 30 to 44 / 45 to 54 / 55 to 64 / 65 or older / Prefer not to answer
What is your gender?
Options: Man / Woman / Nonbinary or another gender / Prefer not to answer
Are you Hispanic or Latino?
Options: Yes / No / Prefer not to answer
How would you describe your racial background?
Options: White / Black or African American / Asian or Pacific Islander / Native American or Indigenous / Middle Eastern or North African / Other or multiracial / Prefer not to answer
What is the highest level of school you have completed?
Options: Less than high school / High school graduate / Vocational or trade school / Some college, no degree / Associate's degree / Bachelor's degree / Graduate or professional degree / Prefer not to answer
Do you own or rent your home?
Options: Own / Rent / Live with family or in another arrangement / Prefer not to answer
Which one of these costs is hardest for your household to afford right now?
Options in random order: Housing / Health care / Groceries / Utilities / Transportation / Child care / Education / Another cost / None of these is hard to afford / Don't know / No opinion
Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?
Options: Democrat / Republican / Independent / Another party / Don't know / No opinion
Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Democrat”
Options: Strong Democrat / Not very strong Democrat / Don't know / No opinion
Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Republican”
Options: Strong Republican / Not very strong Republican / Don't know / No opinion
And as of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or neither?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Independent” or “Another party” or “Don't know / No opinion”
Options: The Democratic Party / The Republican Party / Neither / Don't know / No opinion
Which one of these words best describes your political views?
Options in random order: Conservative / Moderate / Liberal / Progressive / Socialist / Libertarian / None of these / Don't know / No opinion
Are you, or is any member of your household, a member of a labor union?
Options: Yes / No / Prefer not to answer
Which of these best describes your household's total income in 2025, before taxes?
Options: Under $25,000 / $25,000 to under $50,000 / $50,000 to under $100,000 / $100,000 to under $200,000 / $200,000 or more / Prefer not to answer
Which of these do you think would do the most to bring down inflation?
Options in random order: The Federal Reserve raising interest rates to slow borrowing and spending / Governments starting businesses that sell alongside private companies, to increase supply / Tax breaks and subsidies for private companies to produce more / Cutting regulations so private companies can produce more / None of these / Don't know / No opinion
Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this?
Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q43 instead
Options: Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion
Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. Two that exist today: the U.S. Postal Service, which delivers packages alongside private companies like UPS and FedEx, and the Tennessee Valley Authority, a federally owned company that sells electricity. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this?
Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q42 instead
Options: Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion
In which of these areas, if any, would you support governments starting businesses like this? Pick all that apply.
Options in random order: Building and renting homes / Hospitals and clinics / Child care centers / Making prescription drugs / Processing food / Grocery stores / Refining gasoline / Electric utilities / Internet service / Colleges / None of these / Don't know / No opinion
If governments started businesses like this, do you think prices would be lower, about the same or higher than without them?
Options: Lower / About the same / Higher / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion
If governments started businesses like this, do you think there would be more for sale, about the same or less than without them?
Options: More / About the same / Less / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion
If governments started businesses like this, do you think quality would be better, about the same or worse than without them?
Options: Better / About the same / Worse / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion
Suppose a government-owned business made its costs public. How useful, if at all, would that be for showing whether private companies charge too much?
Options: Very useful / Somewhat useful / Not very useful / Not at all useful / Don't know / No opinion
If public money were used to start new businesses that sell goods or services, who should own and run them?
Options in random order: The government should own and run them / Private companies should own and run them / No preference / Public money shouldn't be spent on this / Don't know / No opinion

Full disclosure as plain text

Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having (super PAC, FEC C00933085); conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit. Population: Likely voters (AFWH house estimate) in the declared poll frame (AZ-06); weighted to the 2022-11-08 comparable electorate at its election-day ages. Historical participants retained in the current file, using current geography and non-age demographics. Race is weighted to the poll's frozen likely electorate by each voter's recorded race, else its verified surname-and-geography estimate, in place of the comparable electorate's per-voter race counts. The AFWH house estimate: the average of the anchored recipes that entered this read (recalled vote among verified 2024 voters and recalled vote among verified 2024 voters plus turnout groups), each on our likely-voter model's turnout step, raked to the poll's electorate targets and to the certified 2024 presidential result through recalled 2024 vote and the Census college share of the geography's registered citizens. (AZ-06). Likely-voter rule: No question screened respondents out of the interview. Each respondent's voter-file turnout score was updated by their answer to the vote-intention question (Q12), with an odds ratio of 2.42 between the lowest and highest answers. Respondents who said they had already voted (Q1) counted as certain to vote; a missing answer kept the file score; anyone else whose file score was zero got no weight. Each respondent's weight was multiplied by the updated score before raking to the targets. Our likely-voter model was set in advance; in backtests it did not clear its pre-registered accuracy bar, so we describe it as unvalidated. Sample frame: 536,450 voter-file records in universe "AZ-06 2026 general — scored waves electorate" (State: AZ; Office: U.S. House Arizona District 6; Turnout model: AFWH's Arizona turnout model, trained on the 2022 general election); random draw of 1,052; 74,446 sent a text invitation. Modes: Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey. Languages: English. Interviews completed October 20, 2026 to October 23, 2026. n = 837 completed interviews; 74,446 sampled voters were sent a text invitation; margin of error ±4.8 percentage points at 95% confidence including a design effect of 2.01. Effective sample size 417; the largest weight is 41 times the smallest. Voters under 30 were hard to reach by text in AZ-06. Their responses carry about 2.6 times the average weight. Weighting: the house rule's weighted average of two anchored families of raking recipes to party registration (Democratic 34.6%, Green 0.1%, Independent 5.5%, Libertarian 0.5%, no party 19.0%, other parties 0.8%, Republican 39.4%); gender (women 50.4%, men 45.1%, gender not recorded 4.4%); age group (18-29 7.7%, 30-44 15.8%, 45-54 12.4%, 55-64 18.7%, 65+ 45.4%); 2024 presidential vote (recalled) (Harris 46.2%, did not vote or voted for someone else 6.9%, Trump 46.9%); education (four-year college degree) (college degree 43.6%, no college degree 54.4%, not recorded 2.0%); race and ethnicity (voter-file model) (Asian or Pacific Islander 2.0%, Black 3.6%, Hispanic 18.1%, other races 3.2%, White 73.1%), from the last comparable electorate at its election-day ages; retained historical participants in current geography; base weights are the inverse of each sampled voter's recorded selection probability within the stratified draw. Estimate: Each respondent's weight combines two families of weighting recipes anchored to the 2024 presidential vote: one to the certified result, one to the 2024 vote of respondents the voter file shows voted, each named candidate held to its certified share. Within a family, the recipes that pass the partisan checks are averaged, each recipe's weights scaled to a mean of 1 first. Each family counts in proportion to how often its average fits voter-file facts no recipe weights to best (2020 and 2022 turnout, registration year and county, and where the state's file of returned ballots is held, the early vote by party) over 500 resamples of respondents: certified 2024 recall (0 recipes), 0.0%; corrected 2024 recall of file-validated 2024 voters (2 recipes), 100.0%. Each recipe is bounded raking on the likely voters with its final weights trimmed at their 1st and 99th percentiles; recipes off the electorate's party mix by more than 3 points or the certified 2024 result by more than 5 were left out. Recipes without a 2024 vote anchor were computed as sensitivities only. A question asked of a random part of the sample is read on the same weights of the respondents who answered it Weight trimming: Each respondent's design weight was kept and raked to the targets with no bound on the weighting adjustment; 0 of 837 respondents' weights were trimmed. Turnout model: Each respondent's chance of voting starts from a turnout score from our Arizona voter-file model, then is updated by how likely they told us they are to vote. That model has had limited testing: on the one past election we could test it on, the 2024 presidential race, it predicted who voted better than a flat guess, but by less than the standard we set for our models, and it has never been tested on a midterm. We hold no Arizona vote history before 2022. Because no Arizona model has met all our standards, the poll's electorate targets for party registration, gender and age group come instead from the people who voted in Arizona's November 2022 general election and are still registered in the area polled. Race is weighted to the poll's frozen likely electorate by each voter's recorded race, else its verified surname-and-geography estimate, in place of the comparable electorate's per-voter race counts. Arizona's results therefore carry more uncertainty than the margin of error alone shows. Processing: completed interviews only; partial interviews are excluded. Quality checks flagged 503 people who opened the survey and stopped before completing it, 476 duplicate submissions, 3 speeder. 250 estimate(s) reported, 7 withheld under the reporting rules. Limitations: The margin of error (4.8 points at 95% confidence, including the design effect) describes sampling error for a result near 50% among all respondents. Results for subgroups carry larger margins, and question wording, coverage and nonresponse can also affect results. The margin of error on the gap between two candidates is roughly twice the poll's margin of error; each race's own figure is given in the fine print with its result. The sponsor is a political committee (a super PAC). Readers should weigh results with that sponsorship in mind. Respondents could be reached only through a telephone number matched to their voter record; voters without a usable number were outside the sample frame. Respondents answered online; people unable or unwilling to complete a web survey are represented only through weighting. 20 respondent(s) had no recorded age group and were not adjusted on that variable. 43 respondent(s) had no recorded race and ethnicity (voter-file model) and were not adjusted on that variable. 7 estimate(s) rest on fewer than 50 respondents and are not shown. Questions, as written (AZ-06 2026 general, version 1): 1. How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 general election in {place}? [Already voted / Extremely likely / Very likely / Somewhat likely / Somewhat unlikely / Very unlikely / Extremely unlikely / Don't know / No opinion] 2. Who did you vote for in this year's general election for Governor? [Andy Biggs, Republican / Katie Hobbs, Democrat / Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party / Risa Lombardo, Green / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Arizona: the party order varies by county across the poll's Arizona area; A.R.S. 16-502(E),(H))) 3. If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for? [Andy Biggs, Republican / Katie Hobbs, Democrat / Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party / Risa Lombardo, Green / Someone else / Undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Arizona: the party order varies by county across the poll's Arizona area; A.R.S. 16-502(E),(H))) 4. If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? [Andy Biggs, Republican / Katie Hobbs, Democrat / Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party / Risa Lombardo, Green / Someone else / Still undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Undecided”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Arizona: the party order varies by county across the poll's Arizona area; A.R.S. 16-502(E),(H))) 5. Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate? [Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Andy Biggs, Republican” or “Katie Hobbs, Democrat” or “Teri Ann Hourihan, No Labels Party” or “Risa Lombardo, Green”) 6. Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives? [Juan Ciscomani, Republican / JoAnna Mendoza, Democrat / Jereme Lance Peters, Libertarian / Gary Swing, Green / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Arizona: the party order varies by county across the poll's Arizona area; A.R.S. 16-502(E),(H))) 7. If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for? [Juan Ciscomani, Republican / JoAnna Mendoza, Democrat / Jereme Lance Peters, Libertarian / Gary Swing, Green / Someone else / Undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Arizona: the party order varies by county across the poll's Arizona area; A.R.S. 16-502(E),(H))) 8. If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? [Juan Ciscomani, Republican / JoAnna Mendoza, Democrat / Jereme Lance Peters, Libertarian / Gary Swing, Green / Someone else / Still undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Undecided”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Arizona: the party order varies by county across the poll's Arizona area; A.R.S. 16-502(E),(H))) 9. Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate? [Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Juan Ciscomani, Republican” or “JoAnna Mendoza, Democrat” or “Jereme Lance Peters, Libertarian” or “Gary Swing, Green”) 10. How much have you thought about this election? [A great deal / Some / A little / Not at all / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer] 11. When it comes to the November election, would you say you are very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic, not very enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? [Very enthusiastic / Somewhat enthusiastic / Not very enthusiastic / Not at all enthusiastic / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) 12. On a scale from 0 to 9, where 0 means you definitely will not vote and 9 means you definitely will vote, how likely are you to vote in this election? [0 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hakeem Jeffries is handling his job as House Democratic Leader? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] (Q13–Q17 were asked in a random order for each respondent) 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] 18. Should Democrats in Congress stay on their current course, or change direction? [Stay on their current course / Change direction / Don't know / No opinion] 19. If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else? [Jeffries should become Speaker / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion] 20. If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, should Chuck Schumer become Majority Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else? [Schumer should become Majority Leader / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion] 21. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of health insurance companies? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] (Q21–Q25 were asked in a random order for each respondent) 22. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of drug companies? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] 23. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of electric utility companies? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] 24. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large companies that own rental homes and apartments? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] 25. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large banks? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] 26. Who did you vote for in the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, or did you not vote? [Donald Trump / Kamala Harris / Someone else / I did not vote / Don't know / No opinion] 27. What is your age? [18 to 29 / 30 to 44 / 45 to 54 / 55 to 64 / 65 or older / Prefer not to answer] 28. What is your gender? [Man / Woman / Nonbinary or another gender / Prefer not to answer] 29. Are you Hispanic or Latino? [Yes / No / Prefer not to answer] 30. How would you describe your racial background? [White / Black or African American / Asian or Pacific Islander / Native American or Indigenous / Middle Eastern or North African / Other or multiracial / Prefer not to answer] 31. What is the highest level of school you have completed? [Less than high school / High school graduate / Vocational or trade school / Some college, no degree / Associate's degree / Bachelor's degree / Graduate or professional degree / Prefer not to answer] 32. Do you own or rent your home? [Own / Rent / Live with family or in another arrangement / Prefer not to answer] 33. Which one of these costs is hardest for your household to afford right now? [Housing / Health care / Groceries / Utilities / Transportation / Child care / Education / Another cost / None of these is hard to afford / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated) 34. Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party? [Democrat / Republican / Independent / Another party / Don't know / No opinion] 35. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat? [Strong Democrat / Not very strong Democrat / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Democrat”) 36. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican? [Strong Republican / Not very strong Republican / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Republican”) 37. And as of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or neither? [The Democratic Party / The Republican Party / Neither / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Independent” or “Another party” or “Don't know / No opinion”) 38. Which one of these words best describes your political views? [Conservative / Moderate / Liberal / Progressive / Socialist / Libertarian / None of these / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated) 39. Are you, or is any member of your household, a member of a labor union? [Yes / No / Prefer not to answer] 40. Which of these best describes your household's total income in 2025, before taxes? [Under $25,000 / $25,000 to under $50,000 / $50,000 to under $100,000 / $100,000 to under $200,000 / $200,000 or more / Prefer not to answer] 41. Which of these do you think would do the most to bring down inflation? [The Federal Reserve raising interest rates to slow borrowing and spending / Governments starting businesses that sell alongside private companies, to increase supply / Tax breaks and subsidies for private companies to produce more / Cutting regulations so private companies can produce more / None of these / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated) 42. Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this? [Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q43 instead) (source of its opening sentence: AFWH's own wording, written for this poll (AFWH's public-business question module, October 15, 2026).) 43. Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. Two that exist today: the U.S. Postal Service, which delivers packages alongside private companies like UPS and FedEx, and the Tennessee Valley Authority, a federally owned company that sells electricity. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this? [Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q42 instead) (source of its opening sentence: AFWH's own wording, written for this poll (AFWH's public-business question module, October 15, 2026). The two examples: the U.S. Postal Service is an independent establishment of the executive branch, 39 U.S.C. 201 (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/39/201); the Tennessee Valley Authority is a corporate agency of the United States (https://www.tva.com/about-tva).) 44. In which of these areas, if any, would you support governments starting businesses like this? Pick all that apply. [Building and renting homes / Hospitals and clinics / Child care centers / Making prescription drugs / Processing food / Grocery stores / Refining gasoline / Electric utilities / Internet service / Colleges / None of these / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated) (asked only in the web survey and live-interviewer calls) 45. If governments started businesses like this, do you think prices would be lower, about the same or higher than without them? [Lower / About the same / Higher / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion] 46. If governments started businesses like this, do you think there would be more for sale, about the same or less than without them? [More / About the same / Less / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion] 47. If governments started businesses like this, do you think quality would be better, about the same or worse than without them? [Better / About the same / Worse / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion] 48. Suppose a government-owned business made its costs public. How useful, if at all, would that be for showing whether private companies charge too much? [Very useful / Somewhat useful / Not very useful / Not at all useful / Don't know / No opinion] 49. If public money were used to start new businesses that sell goods or services, who should own and run them? [The government should own and run them / Private companies should own and run them / No preference / Public money shouldn't be spent on this / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated)

sha256 b68fa93ab5c049e917aaf18f7197b1ad6f8e359ca4668d2dba755e04c32d1e6f

Response rates (AAPOR Standard Definitions)

Response rate 1 (RR1): 0.2%
Response rate 3 (RR3): 0.2%
Cooperation rate 1 (COOP1): 12.1%
Refusal rate 1 (REF1): 1.6%
Contact rate 1 (CON1): 1.8%

e = 1.0000: proportional allocation (the default of AAPOR Survey Outcome Rate Calculator 5.1 (2023), List Samples sheet) over the 6,927 cases whose eligibility was settled by contact (6,927 eligible, 0 screened out). Duplicate listings are left out because the frame check removed them from every drawn case. The questionnaire has no eligibility screener, and the Standard Definitions treat an unreached named-list case as eligible when none is required.

Final dispositions of the 388,911 voters drawn
AAPOR code	Disposition	Cases
1.1	Complete interview	837
2.1133	Replied STOP to the invitation	5,587
2.12	Break-off: started the survey (web link or phone) and stopped before completing it	503
3.20	Invitation delivered, no response	65,398
3.219	Invitation not delivered	1,750
3.23	Not attempted: no invitation sent and no call dialed	314,465
3.9	Invitation sent, no delivery status returned	371

RR1 by age band
Age band	Drawn	Completes	RR1
18-24	29,151	9	0.0%
25-34	51,520	29	0.1%
35-44	53,890	63	0.1%
45-54	48,076	99	0.2%
55-64	55,876	151	0.3%
65+	150,398	486	0.3%

RR1 by file party
File party	Drawn	Completes	RR1
Democrat	118,195	325	0.3%
Green	536	1	0.2%
Independent	18,204	32	0.2%
Libertarian	2,667	3	0.1%
No Party	107,922	213	0.2%
Other	5,773	3	0.1%
Republican	135,614	260	0.2%

RR1 by race (voter file)
Race (voter file)	Drawn	Completes	RR1
Unknown	144,536	276	0.2%
Aian	108	0	0.0%
Asian American or Pacific Islander	2,794	3	0.1%
Black	84	0	0.0%
Hispanic	47,153	66	0.1%
White	194,236	492	0.3%

Rates use the formulas of the AAPOR Survey Outcome Rate Calculator 5.1 (2023), List Samples sheet; RR1 counts every drawn voter except duplicate listings.

Weighting appendix: trimming and the shadow estimate

Weight trimming

Bounds: none: each respondent keeps their design weight and the weighting adjustment is not bounded.

Weights trimmed: 0 (strategy: each recipe trimmed before the house rule's average).

Design effect before trimming: not recorded.

Design effect after trimming: 2.009.

Data-defect shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.ddc.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Expected electorate (N): 337,130, from the frozen turnout projection.

U.S. House: JoAnna Mendoza, Democrat minus Juan Ciscomani, Republican among decided respondents (n=801): headline basis +4.9, shadow arm +4.1 (correlation -0.000408, the 2020 value pooled across states).

Governor: Katie Hobbs, Democrat minus Andy Biggs, Republican among decided respondents (n=793): headline basis +9.0, shadow arm +8.2 (correlation -0.000408, the 2020 value pooled across states).

Assumption: The correlation was measured on CES, an opt-in online panel, under our weighting recipe. Our voter-file estimator has no general-election history, so carrying CES's correlation over is an assumption.

Assumption: There is no midterm correlation source. The 2020 presidential correlation is applied to 2026 midterm contests.

Assumption: The correction produces no weights, so it has no design effect of its own. Its uncertainty is not estimated here.

A + recall shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.a-plus-recall.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Recalled 2024 vote: 837 respondents answered; Harris:Trump set to the certified 2024 ratio in AZ-06 (49.6% Harris of the two-party vote).

U.S. House: JoAnna Mendoza, Democrat minus Juan Ciscomani, Republican among decided respondents (n=801): headline basis +4.9, A + recall +4.6 (shift -0.3).

Governor: Katie Hobbs, Democrat minus Andy Biggs, Republican among decided respondents (n=793): headline basis +9.0, A + recall +9.2 (shift +0.2).

A + education shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.a-plus-education.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Status: not applicable. district scope AZ-06: the CPS target is a state figure and the spec applies it only to statewide scopes; no sourced district target exists

A + post-ballot partials shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.a-plus-partials.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Post-ballot partials: 0 of 837 completes (0.0%); breakoff gap by file party: 0.0 points. The arm computes only above 10% or 3 points.

Status: not triggered. post-ballot partials are 0.0% of completes (rule: above 10%) and the breakoff gap by file party is 0.0 points (rule: above 3)

LV fitted shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.lv-fitted.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Status: awaiting validation. 837 of 837 respondents carry a draw-time file score; 0-9 intention groups: 9 797, 0-4 18, 5-6 3, 7-8 14, no answer 5.

Coefficients are fitted after the election on these respondents matched to the post-election voter file, by the frozen rule (inputs sha256 d208c5fcf37e).

Per-state likely voters check (pollster.check.plv-state.v1; the headline recipe with the national and the state's own intention ratio side by side)

AZ: own ratio 3.50 against the national 2.42; back-test: did not beat the national ratio.

U.S. House: JoAnna Mendoza, Democrat minus Juan Ciscomani, Republican among decided respondents (n=801): headline basis +9.3, Per-state likely voters +9.2 (shift -0.1).

Governor: Katie Hobbs, Democrat minus Andy Biggs, Republican among decided respondents (n=793): headline basis +14.3, Per-state likely voters +14.1 (shift -0.2).

A + covariate undecided allocation shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.undecided-covariate.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Undecided respondents (after leaners are pushed) are allocated by a model fitted on decided respondents: file party, recalled 2024 vote, presidential approval and county 2024 lean.

U.S. House: JoAnna Mendoza, Democrat minus Juan Ciscomani, Republican, 5.8% undecided (n=31): undecideds dropped +6.0, allocated +7.1 (shift +1.0; model gives 38% of undecideds to Juan Ciscomani, Republican).

Governor: Katie Hobbs, Democrat minus Andy Biggs, Republican, 5.2% undecided (n=35): undecideds dropped +8.3, allocated +10.1 (shift +1.7; model gives 29% of undecideds to Andy Biggs, Republican).

Assumption: the undecided-allocation model measured CES 'Not Sure' respondents, who were never asked a leaner question; here the model allocates the smaller undecided-after-leaner group.

Assumption: The model is fitted on decided respondents; CES showed undecideds within a party, recall or approval cell are less partisan than decided ones, which the pooled allocation absorbed on the replay frame.

Assumption: CES is an opt-in panel; the replay tests the allocation rule, not voter-file sampling.

Turnout level scenarios (carried beside the estimates; not the headline, no weight changes)

Production level: 63.5% of 4,345,186 active registrants, 2,759,476 ballots.

Basis-matched level: 63.5% of 4,345,186 active registrants, 2,759,476 ballots.

AZ file: 4,987,874 on the roll, 4,345,186 active; AFWH's Arizona turnout model, trained on the 2022 general election (version 6). Both are scored against the certified total ballots cast after the election.

Turnout model whose scores were used (Arizona): one out-of-sample test — trained on the Nov. 8, 2022 general election, scored on the Nov. 5, 2024 general election among 200,000 voters: Brier skill score 0.09, AUC 0.70. Brier skill score: 0 = no better than giving every voter the same turnout probability, 1 = perfect; our validation standard is 0.20. No test on a midterm election.

AAPOR disclosure: further items

Data collection strategy (AAPOR A1)

A survey of AZ-06 likely voters for the November 3, 2026 general election. Collection: Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey.

Who collected the interviews (AAPOR A2)

RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit, drew the sample and collected the interviews itself; no outside fieldwork vendor collected interviews.

Wording shown or read before the questions (AAPOR A3)

Invitation text (wave 1), 65,435 sent: "Hi {first_name}, RedBox Research is surveying {community} voters ({survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end, HELP for help."

Invitation text (wave 1), 4,516 sent: "Hi {first_name}, RedBox Research: what do {community} voters think? {survey_minutes}-min poll, see results: {survey_url} Reply STOP to end, HELP for help."

Invitation text (wave 1), 4,495 sent: "Hi {first_name}, RedBox Research poll on the race for Congress in {community} ({survey_minutes} min): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end, HELP for help."

Words in braces were filled in for each recipient when the text was sent.

Welcome screen before question 1: "Thanks for coming, {first_name|and welcome}." "We need {minutes} minutes of your time." (button: "Start survey").

The survey was self-administered on the web: there was no interviewer or AI script.

Likely voters (AAPOR A4)

No question screened respondents out of the interview. Each respondent's voter-file turnout score was updated by their answer to the vote-intention question (Q12), with an odds ratio of 2.42 between the lowest and highest answers. Respondents who said they had already voted (Q1) counted as certain to vote; a missing answer kept the file score; anyone else whose file score was zero got no weight. Each respondent's weight was multiplied by the updated score before raking to the targets.

Sample type (AAPOR A5a)

A probability sample: every voter was drawn at random, with a recorded seed, from the voter-file universe named in the disclosure. No response was generated by AI (no synthetic respondents were used).

Sample frame and its date (AAPOR A5b)

Voters were drawn from the AFWH voter file, built from the Arizona official state voter registration file dated June 1, 2026 (received July 8, 2026), for 388,911 drawn voters. Telephone numbers: of the 74,446 voters sent an invitation or called, 74,446 at a number on the official voter file.

Coverage (AAPOR A5c)

74,446 of the 388,911 drawn voters (19.1%) had a textable number and were sent an invitation; the other 314,465 could not be reached by text and are counted as not attempted (AAPOR 3.23).

Quotas (AAPOR A5e)

Sample draws were sized to 558 target cells. No interview was stopped or screened out because a cell was full (no case carries a quota-full or screen-out disposition).

Incentives and contact (AAPOR A5i)

No incentive is recorded for this poll, and Pollster has no step that pays or promises one; the wording of the texts sent is under A3. Contact: a single invitation text; no reminders were sent.

Modes (AAPOR A6)

Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey. Language: English.

Interviews by frame and mode (AAPOR A8a)

Completed interviews by frame: AZ-06 2026 general 837. By mode: web 837.

Margin of error (AAPOR A8c)

The margin of error is shown because the sample was drawn at random; with a low response rate it holds only as far as weighting corrects nonresponse.

Quality checks (AAPOR A10)

Each invited voter received a unique survey link; a link yields at most one interview. Quality flags recorded: 476 duplicate submissions, 3 speeder. Flags are measured, not used to drop cases: all 837 interviews completed by the status date are in the weighted estimates.

Total error (AAPOR A11)

The margins of error describe sampling error with the design effect; they are not widened for other sources of error. The margin of error on the gap between two candidates is roughly twice the poll's margin of error; each race's own figure is given in the fine print with its result.

AI use (AAPOR A12)

(a) Task performed by AI: none in data collection; no AI interviewer or chatbot was used (Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey). AI in processing: No language model coded, weighted or wrote any published result; every published number and sentence is produced by deterministic code from the recorded responses. (b) Human oversight or validation: not applicable; no AI output enters the data or the published results.

Panel (AAPOR B1)

No panel: respondents were drawn fresh from the voter file for this poll.

Dispositions (AAPOR B5)

Standard: AAPOR Standard Definitions, 10th edition (2023), list samples: section 1.3 (phone surveys of named persons) and section 1.6 (SMS surveys of named persons).

Final dispositions of the 388,911 drawn cases:

1.1 Complete interview: 837

2.1133 Replied STOP to the invitation: 5,587

2.12 Break-off: started the survey (web link or phone) and stopped before completing it: 503

3.20 Invitation delivered, no response: 65,398

3.219 Invitation not delivered: 1,750

3.23 Not attempted: no invitation sent and no call dialed: 314,465

3.9 Invitation sent, no delivery status returned: 371

Outcome rates: RR1 0.2%; RR3 0.2%; COOP1 12.1%; REF1 1.6%; CON1 1.8%.

74,446 text invitations sent, 0 calls dialed.

Text message to the web survey: 74,446 cases attempted. RR1 1.1%; RR3 1.1%; COOP1 12.1%; REF1 8.2%; CON1 9.3%.

Each mode counts only the people it tried to reach and only the interviews completed in that mode: a voter texted who then finished by phone is a text non-complete and a phone complete. Each mode's RR3 uses the release's e.

Each voter's final disposition is the most informative outcome across every text and call (AAPOR Standard Definitions, 10th edition, pp. 9 and 13): a complete in either mode, then a screen-out, then a refusal or break-off, then the most informative unreached outcome.

How leads are called

Total-error band for this release: midterm general. AAPOR state presidential MAE 5.1 (2016, 2020); AAPOR 2018 state polls 4.64; primaries 9 (Silver). sd = MAE*sqrt(pi/2).

Release information

AZ-06 2026 general — v3

Version 3 · Published Oct 24, 2026

Release: ec6f883c-4798-45b9-8918-28018b04fab8

Source checksum: 18cc5fd7050cbf0a62efbab5572c4609917736e2a9fcb8672187ae855b237fa8

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