RedBox Research · 2026

OH-07 2026 general

Survey resultsOct 24, 2026875 interviewsLikely voters (AFWH house estimate)

Survey results

Population: Likely voters (AFWH house estimate). The AFWH house estimate: the average of the anchored recipes that entered this read (recalled-vote recipe, recalled-vote recipe plus turnout groups, recalled vote among verified 2024 voters and recalled vote among verified 2024 voters plus turnout groups), each on our likely-voter model's turnout step, raked to the poll's electorate targets and to the certified 2024 presidential result through recalled 2024 vote, the Census college share of the geography's registered citizens and the likely electorate's share of each voter-file turnout-score group.

Weighted responses. Undecided answers are shown separately. A lead is called only when it is larger than the sampling margin widened by a 90% total-error band; otherwise it is within error.

Governor

Governor ballot choice

Within error Amy Acton has a narrow lead over Vivek Ramaswamy, 47.9% to 45.3%, within the margin of error (n = 875; the poll's margin of error ±4.1 points). Other answers, including undecided: 6.8%.

Question details

Response	Percent	Interviews	95% margin
Amy Acton, Democrat	47.9%	519	±4.1 pp
Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican	45.3%	292	±4.1 pp
Don Kissick, Libertarian	2.3%	23	±1.2 pp
Undecided	1.8%	20	±1.1 pp
Someone else	1.6%	9	±1.0 pp
Prefer not to answer	1.0%	12	±0.8 pp

Amy Acton, Democrat47.9%

Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican45.3%

Don Kissick, Libertarian2.3%

Undecided1.8%

Someone else1.6%

Prefer not to answer1.0%

House ballot choice

Within error Brian Poindexter has a narrow lead over Max Miller, 45.7% to 41.7%, within the margin of error (n = 875; the poll's margin of error ±4.1 points). Other answers, including undecided: 12.6%.

Question details

Response	Percent	Interviews	95% margin
Brian Poindexter, Democrat	45.7%	501	±4.1 pp
Max Miller, Republican	41.7%	268	±4.0 pp
Undecided	6.2%	56	±2.0 pp
Someone else	4.1%	32	±1.6 pp
Prefer not to answer	1.4%	12	±1.0 pp
Did not vote in this race	0.9%	6	±0.8 pp

Brian Poindexter, Democrat45.7%

Max Miller, Republican41.7%

Undecided6.2%

Someone else4.1%

Prefer not to answer1.4%

Did not vote in this race0.9%

U.S. Senate

Senate ballot choice

Within error Jon Husted and Sherrod Brown are tied, 45.9% to 45.2%, within the margin of error (n = 875; the poll's margin of error ±4.1 points). Other answers, including undecided: 8.9%.

Question details

Response	Percent	Interviews	95% margin
Jon Husted, Republican	45.9%	299	±4.1 pp
Sherrod Brown, Democrat	45.2%	502	±4.1 pp
Undecided	3.9%	33	±1.6 pp
Prefer not to answer	1.9%	15	±1.1 pp
William B. Redpath, Libertarian	1.4%	13	±1.0 pp
Someone else	1.3%	8	±0.9 pp
Greg Levy, independent	0.4%	5	±0.5 pp

Jon Husted, Republican45.9%

Sherrod Brown, Democrat45.2%

Undecided3.9%

Prefer not to answer1.9%

William B. Redpath, Libertarian1.4%

Someone else1.3%

Greg Levy, independent0.4%

Explore responses

QuestionBreak down by

gender	Amy Acton, Democrat	Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican	Don Kissick, Libertarian	Undecided	Prefer not to answer	Someone else
All respondents	47.9%	45.3%	2.3%	1.8%	1.0%	1.6%
Women	50.9%	43.0%	2.4%	1.7%	1.1%	0.9%
Men	44.8%	49.0%	2.0%	1.8%	0.7%	1.6%
UnknownWithheld: Effective base too small	—	—	—	—	—	—

* Small sample. A dash means the estimate is withheld because too few interviews support it; the reason is shown. Percentages may not total 100 because of rounding.

Methodology

Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having (super PAC, FEC C00933085); conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit.

Field dates: Oct 20–23, 2026
Interviews: 875
Collected by: Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey
Margin of error: ±4.1 pts
Design effect: 1.53

1.96 × √(design effect × 0.25 ÷ n) × 100, for a 50% result among all respondents

Population

Likely voters (AFWH house estimate) in the declared poll frame (OH-07); weighted to the 2026-11-03 general electorate its pre-registered turnout verdict (record 26, arm C2′) sets: age from the turnout model's predicted 2026 electorate, trained only on elections since 2016, the other dimensions from the last comparable electorate; pre-registration 8293c1a3, harness 934d2e13, content 34ca0254389b. Race is weighted to the likely electorate's composition by each voter's recorded race, else its verified surname-and-geography estimate, in place of the 2022 base's recorded-race shares the verdict carries. The AFWH house estimate: the average of the anchored recipes that entered this read (recalled-vote recipe, recalled-vote recipe plus turnout groups, recalled vote among verified 2024 voters and recalled vote among verified 2024 voters plus turnout groups), each on our likely-voter model's turnout step, raked to the poll's electorate targets and to the certified 2024 presidential result through recalled 2024 vote, the Census college share of the geography's registered citizens and the likely electorate's share of each voter-file turnout-score group.

Sample frame and selection

OH-07 2026 general — expansion draft (482,056 eligible records). Voters selected at random (draw sized for 1,071 completes). 78,499 sent a text invitation.State: OH · Office: house · Turnout model: AFWH's Ohio turnout model, trained on the 2022 general election

Modes

Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey

Languages

English

Weighting

The house rule's weighted average of two anchored families of raking recipes, weights bounded between null and null. Targets: the 2026 electorate targets of the state's 2026 turnout verdict, set in advance. [object Object]

Processing and quality

Completed interviews only; partial interviews are excluded.

People who opened the survey and stopped before completing it: 493
Duplicate submissions: 527

8 estimates are withheld because their base is too small to report.

Weighting targets and weighted sample
Variable	Category	Target	Weighted sample
Party registration	democrat	22.3%	22.3%
	libertarian	0.2%	0.2%
	No Party	47.3%	47.3%
	republican	30.1%	30.1%
Gender	Women	49.6%	50.3%
	Men	46.8%	47.5%
	Unknown	3.6%	2.2%
Age group	18-29	7.8%	7.8%
	30-44	17.2%	17.2%
	45-54	14.4%	14.4%
	55-64	19.8%	19.8%
	65+	40.9%	40.9%
2024 presidential vote (recalled)	dem	41.8%	42.1%
	Notvoted Other	5.9%	5.6%
	rep	52.3%	52.4%
Education (four-year college degree)	college	41.3%	41.3%
	Non College	56.9%	56.9%
	unknown	1.8%	1.8%
Turnout score	t0-t2	6.6%	6.6%
	t3	6.3%	6.3%
	t4-t5	11.2%	11.2%
	t6	9.0%	9.0%
	t7	17.3%	17.3%
	t8	19.2%	19.2%
	t9	30.5%	30.5%
Race and ethnicity (voter-file model)	Asian or Pacific Islander	2.0%	2.0%
	Black	3.0%	3.0%
	Hispanic	2.4%	2.4%
	Other	1.9%	1.9%
	White	90.8%	90.8%

Limitations

The margin of error (4.1 points at 95% confidence, including the design effect) describes sampling error for a result near 50% among all respondents. Results for subgroups carry larger margins, and question wording, coverage and nonresponse can also affect results. The margin of error on the gap between two candidates is roughly twice the poll's margin of error; each race's own figure is given in the fine print with its result.
The sponsor is a political committee (a super PAC). Readers should weigh results with that sponsorship in mind.
Respondents could be reached only through a telephone number matched to their voter record; voters without a usable number were outside the sample frame.
Respondents answered online; people unable or unwilling to complete a web survey are represented only through weighting.
13 respondent(s) had no recorded age group and were not adjusted on that variable.
41 respondent(s) had no recorded race and ethnicity (voter-file model) and were not adjusted on that variable.
8 estimate(s) rest on fewer than 50 respondents and are not shown.
4 estimate(s) rest on 50 to 99 respondents and are shown marked “interpret with caution.”

Questionnaire in the order asked

How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 general election in {place}?
Options: Already voted / Extremely likely / Very likely / Somewhat likely / Somewhat unlikely / Very unlikely / Extremely unlikely / Don't know / No opinion
Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. Senate?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”
Options in random order: Sherrod Brown, Democrat / Jon Husted, Republican / Greg Levy, independent / William B. Redpath, Libertarian / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”
Options in random order: Sherrod Brown, Democrat / Jon Husted, Republican / Greg Levy, independent / William B. Redpath, Libertarian / Someone else / Undecided
If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Undecided”
Options in random order: Sherrod Brown, Democrat / Jon Husted, Republican / Greg Levy, independent / William B. Redpath, Libertarian / Someone else / Still undecided
Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Sherrod Brown, Democrat” or “Jon Husted, Republican” or “Greg Levy, independent” or “William B. Redpath, Libertarian”
Options: Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion
Who did you vote for in this year's general election for Governor?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”
Options in random order: Amy Acton, Democrat / Don Kissick, Libertarian / Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”
Options in random order: Amy Acton, Democrat / Don Kissick, Libertarian / Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican / Someone else / Undecided
If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Undecided”
Options in random order: Amy Acton, Democrat / Don Kissick, Libertarian / Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican / Someone else / Still undecided
Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Amy Acton, Democrat” or “Don Kissick, Libertarian” or “Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican”
Options: Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion
Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”
Options in random order: Max Miller, Republican / Brian Poindexter, Democrat / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”
Options in random order: Max Miller, Republican / Brian Poindexter, Democrat / Someone else / Undecided
If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q11 “Undecided”
Options in random order: Max Miller, Republican / Brian Poindexter, Democrat / Someone else / Still undecided
Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q11 “Max Miller, Republican” or “Brian Poindexter, Democrat”
Options: Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion
How much have you thought about this election?
Options: A great deal / Some / A little / Not at all / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer
When it comes to the November election, would you say you are very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic, not very enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”
Options: Very enthusiastic / Somewhat enthusiastic / Not very enthusiastic / Not at all enthusiastic / Don't know / No opinion
On a scale from 0 to 9, where 0 means you definitely will not vote and 9 means you definitely will vote, how likely are you to vote in this election?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”
Options: 0 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hakeem Jeffries is handling his job as House Democratic Leader?
Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader?
Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job?
Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job?
Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
Should Democrats in Congress stay on their current course, or change direction?
Options: Stay on their current course / Change direction / Don't know / No opinion
If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else?
Options: Jeffries should become Speaker / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion
If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, should Chuck Schumer become Majority Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else?
Options: Schumer should become Majority Leader / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of health insurance companies?
Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of drug companies?
Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of electric utility companies?
Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large companies that own rental homes and apartments?
Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large banks?
Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
Who did you vote for in the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, or did you not vote?
Options: Donald Trump / Kamala Harris / Someone else / I did not vote / Don't know / No opinion
What is your age?
Options: 18 to 29 / 30 to 44 / 45 to 54 / 55 to 64 / 65 or older / Prefer not to answer
What is your gender?
Options: Man / Woman / Nonbinary or another gender / Prefer not to answer
Are you Hispanic or Latino?
Options: Yes / No / Prefer not to answer
How would you describe your racial background?
Options: White / Black or African American / Asian or Pacific Islander / Native American or Indigenous / Middle Eastern or North African / Other or multiracial / Prefer not to answer
What is the highest level of school you have completed?
Options: Less than high school / High school graduate / Vocational or trade school / Some college, no degree / Associate's degree / Bachelor's degree / Graduate or professional degree / Prefer not to answer
Do you own or rent your home?
Options: Own / Rent / Live with family or in another arrangement / Prefer not to answer
Which one of these costs is hardest for your household to afford right now?
Options in random order: Housing / Health care / Groceries / Utilities / Transportation / Child care / Education / Another cost / None of these is hard to afford / Don't know / No opinion
Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?
Options: Democrat / Republican / Independent / Another party / Don't know / No opinion
Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q38 “Democrat”
Options: Strong Democrat / Not very strong Democrat / Don't know / No opinion
Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q38 “Republican”
Options: Strong Republican / Not very strong Republican / Don't know / No opinion
And as of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or neither?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q38 “Independent” or “Another party” or “Don't know / No opinion”
Options: The Democratic Party / The Republican Party / Neither / Don't know / No opinion
Which one of these words best describes your political views?
Options in random order: Conservative / Moderate / Liberal / Progressive / Socialist / Libertarian / None of these / Don't know / No opinion
Are you, or is any member of your household, a member of a labor union?
Options: Yes / No / Prefer not to answer
Which of these best describes your household's total income in 2025, before taxes?
Options: Under $25,000 / $25,000 to under $50,000 / $50,000 to under $100,000 / $100,000 to under $200,000 / $200,000 or more / Prefer not to answer
Which of these do you think would do the most to bring down inflation?
Options in random order: The Federal Reserve raising interest rates to slow borrowing and spending / Governments starting businesses that sell alongside private companies, to increase supply / Tax breaks and subsidies for private companies to produce more / Cutting regulations so private companies can produce more / None of these / Don't know / No opinion
Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this?
Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q47 instead
Options: Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion
Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. Two that exist today: the U.S. Postal Service, which delivers packages alongside private companies like UPS and FedEx, and the Tennessee Valley Authority, a federally owned company that sells electricity. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this?
Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q46 instead
Options: Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion
In which of these areas, if any, would you support governments starting businesses like this? Pick all that apply.
Options in random order: Building and renting homes / Hospitals and clinics / Child care centers / Making prescription drugs / Processing food / Grocery stores / Refining gasoline / Electric utilities / Internet service / Colleges / None of these / Don't know / No opinion
If governments started businesses like this, do you think prices would be lower, about the same or higher than without them?
Options: Lower / About the same / Higher / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion
If governments started businesses like this, do you think there would be more for sale, about the same or less than without them?
Options: More / About the same / Less / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion
If governments started businesses like this, do you think quality would be better, about the same or worse than without them?
Options: Better / About the same / Worse / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion
Suppose a government-owned business made its costs public. How useful, if at all, would that be for showing whether private companies charge too much?
Options: Very useful / Somewhat useful / Not very useful / Not at all useful / Don't know / No opinion
If public money were used to start new businesses that sell goods or services, who should own and run them?
Options in random order: The government should own and run them / Private companies should own and run them / No preference / Public money shouldn't be spent on this / Don't know / No opinion

Full disclosure as plain text

Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having (super PAC, FEC C00933085); conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit. Population: Likely voters (AFWH house estimate) in the declared poll frame (OH-07); weighted to the 2026-11-03 general electorate its pre-registered turnout verdict (record 26, arm C2′) sets: age from the turnout model's predicted 2026 electorate, trained only on elections since 2016, the other dimensions from the last comparable electorate; pre-registration 8293c1a3, harness 934d2e13, content 34ca0254389b. Race is weighted to the likely electorate's composition by each voter's recorded race, else its verified surname-and-geography estimate, in place of the 2022 base's recorded-race shares the verdict carries. The AFWH house estimate: the average of the anchored recipes that entered this read (recalled-vote recipe, recalled-vote recipe plus turnout groups, recalled vote among verified 2024 voters and recalled vote among verified 2024 voters plus turnout groups), each on our likely-voter model's turnout step, raked to the poll's electorate targets and to the certified 2024 presidential result through recalled 2024 vote, the Census college share of the geography's registered citizens and the likely electorate's share of each voter-file turnout-score group. (OH-07). Likely-voter rule: No question screened respondents out of the interview. Each respondent's voter-file turnout score was updated by their answer to the vote-intention question (Q16), with an odds ratio of 2.42 between the lowest and highest answers. Respondents who said they had already voted (Q1) counted as certain to vote; a missing answer kept the file score; anyone else whose file score was zero got no weight. Each respondent's weight was multiplied by the updated score before raking to the targets. Our likely-voter model was set in advance; in backtests it did not clear its pre-registered accuracy bar, so we describe it as unvalidated. Sample frame: 482,056 voter-file records in universe "OH-07 2026 general — expansion draft" (State: OH; Office: house; Turnout model: AFWH's Ohio turnout model, trained on the 2022 general election); random draw of 1,071; 78,499 sent a text invitation. Modes: Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey. Languages: English. Interviews completed October 20, 2026 to October 23, 2026. n = 875 completed interviews; 78,499 sampled voters were sent a text invitation; margin of error ±4.1 percentage points at 95% confidence including a design effect of 1.53. Effective sample size 573; the largest weight is 20.2 times the smallest. Voters under 30 were hard to reach by text in OH-07. Their responses carry about 2.9 times the average weight. Turnout-score groups: Before fielding, the weighting added the voter-file turnout-score groups to this poll's targets: on its draw and final targets the methods check put a turnout-score group 3.2 points off the likely electorate (score 8 to 9: -1.1) without the groups, and 0.8 (-0.0) with them; design effect 1.069 to 1.069, clipped weight 0.03% to 0.22%. The turnout-score group targets come from AFWH's turnout model of record, which is not calibrated to 2026. Weighting: the house rule's weighted average of two anchored families of raking recipes to party registration (Democratic 22.3%, Libertarian 0.2%, no party 47.3%, Republican 30.1%); gender (women 49.6%, men 46.8%, gender not recorded 3.6%); age group (18-29 7.8%, 30-44 17.2%, 45-54 14.4%, 55-64 19.8%, 65+ 40.9%); 2024 presidential vote (recalled) (Harris 41.8%, did not vote or voted for someone else 5.9%, Trump 52.3%); education (four-year college degree) (college degree 41.3%, no college degree 56.9%, not recorded 1.8%); turnout score (score 0 to 2 6.6%, score 3 6.3%, score 4 to 5 11.2%, score 6 9.0%, score 7 17.3%, score 8 19.2%, score 9 30.5%); race and ethnicity (voter-file model) (Asian or Pacific Islander 2.0%, Black 3.0%, Hispanic 2.4%, other races 1.9%, White 90.8%), from the 2026 electorate targets of the state's 2026 turnout verdict, set in advance; base weights are the inverse of each sampled voter's recorded selection probability within the stratified draw. Estimate: Each respondent's weight combines two families of weighting recipes anchored to the 2024 presidential vote: one to the certified result, one to the 2024 vote of respondents the voter file shows voted, each named candidate held to its certified share. Within a family, the recipes that pass the partisan checks are averaged, each recipe's weights scaled to a mean of 1 first. Each family counts in proportion to how often its average fits voter-file facts no recipe weights to best (2020 and 2022 turnout, registration year and county, and where the state's file of returned ballots is held, the early vote by party) over 500 resamples of respondents: certified 2024 recall (2 recipes), 82.0%; corrected 2024 recall of file-validated 2024 voters (2 recipes), 18.0%. Each recipe is bounded raking on the likely voters with its final weights trimmed at their 1st and 99th percentiles; recipes off the electorate's party mix by more than 3 points or the certified 2024 result by more than 5 were left out. Recipes without a 2024 vote anchor were computed as sensitivities only. A question asked of a random part of the sample is read on the same weights of the respondents who answered it Weight trimming: Each respondent's design weight was kept and raked to the targets with no bound on the weighting adjustment; 0 of 875 respondents' weights were trimmed. Processing: completed interviews only; partial interviews are excluded. Quality checks flagged 493 people who opened the survey and stopped before completing it, 527 duplicate submissions. 260 estimate(s) reported, 8 withheld under the reporting rules. Limitations: The margin of error (4.1 points at 95% confidence, including the design effect) describes sampling error for a result near 50% among all respondents. Results for subgroups carry larger margins, and question wording, coverage and nonresponse can also affect results. The margin of error on the gap between two candidates is roughly twice the poll's margin of error; each race's own figure is given in the fine print with its result. The sponsor is a political committee (a super PAC). Readers should weigh results with that sponsorship in mind. Respondents could be reached only through a telephone number matched to their voter record; voters without a usable number were outside the sample frame. Respondents answered online; people unable or unwilling to complete a web survey are represented only through weighting. 13 respondent(s) had no recorded age group and were not adjusted on that variable. 41 respondent(s) had no recorded race and ethnicity (voter-file model) and were not adjusted on that variable. 8 estimate(s) rest on fewer than 50 respondents and are not shown. 4 estimate(s) rest on 50 to 99 respondents and are shown marked “interpret with caution.” Questions, as written (OH-07 2026 general, version 1): 1. How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 general election in {place}? [Already voted / Extremely likely / Very likely / Somewhat likely / Somewhat unlikely / Very unlikely / Extremely unlikely / Don't know / No opinion] 2. Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. Senate? [Sherrod Brown, Democrat / Jon Husted, Republican / Greg Levy, independent / William B. Redpath, Libertarian / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Ohio: rotates by precinct on the Ohio ballot; Ohio Rev. Code 3505.03(E))) 3. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for? [Sherrod Brown, Democrat / Jon Husted, Republican / Greg Levy, independent / William B. Redpath, Libertarian / Someone else / Undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Ohio: rotates by precinct on the Ohio ballot; Ohio Rev. Code 3505.03(E))) 4. If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? [Sherrod Brown, Democrat / Jon Husted, Republican / Greg Levy, independent / William B. Redpath, Libertarian / Someone else / Still undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Undecided”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Ohio: rotates by precinct on the Ohio ballot; Ohio Rev. Code 3505.03(E))) 5. Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate? [Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Sherrod Brown, Democrat” or “Jon Husted, Republican” or “Greg Levy, independent” or “William B. Redpath, Libertarian”) 6. Who did you vote for in this year's general election for Governor? [Amy Acton, Democrat / Don Kissick, Libertarian / Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Ohio: rotates by precinct on the Ohio ballot; Ohio Rev. Code 3505.03(E))) 7. If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for? [Amy Acton, Democrat / Don Kissick, Libertarian / Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican / Someone else / Undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Ohio: rotates by precinct on the Ohio ballot; Ohio Rev. Code 3505.03(E))) 8. If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? [Amy Acton, Democrat / Don Kissick, Libertarian / Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican / Someone else / Still undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Undecided”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Ohio: rotates by precinct on the Ohio ballot; Ohio Rev. Code 3505.03(E))) 9. Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate? [Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Amy Acton, Democrat” or “Don Kissick, Libertarian” or “Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican”) 10. Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives? [Max Miller, Republican / Brian Poindexter, Democrat / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Ohio: rotates by precinct on the Ohio ballot; Ohio Rev. Code 3505.03(E))) 11. If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for? [Max Miller, Republican / Brian Poindexter, Democrat / Someone else / Undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Ohio: rotates by precinct on the Ohio ballot; Ohio Rev. Code 3505.03(E))) 12. If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? [Max Miller, Republican / Brian Poindexter, Democrat / Someone else / Still undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q11 “Undecided”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Ohio: rotates by precinct on the Ohio ballot; Ohio Rev. Code 3505.03(E))) 13. Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate? [Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q11 “Max Miller, Republican” or “Brian Poindexter, Democrat”) 14. How much have you thought about this election? [A great deal / Some / A little / Not at all / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer] 15. When it comes to the November election, would you say you are very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic, not very enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? [Very enthusiastic / Somewhat enthusiastic / Not very enthusiastic / Not at all enthusiastic / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) 16. On a scale from 0 to 9, where 0 means you definitely will not vote and 9 means you definitely will vote, how likely are you to vote in this election? [0 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hakeem Jeffries is handling his job as House Democratic Leader? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] (Q17–Q21 were asked in a random order for each respondent) 18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] 19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] 20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] 21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] 22. Should Democrats in Congress stay on their current course, or change direction? [Stay on their current course / Change direction / Don't know / No opinion] 23. If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else? [Jeffries should become Speaker / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion] 24. If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, should Chuck Schumer become Majority Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else? [Schumer should become Majority Leader / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion] 25. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of health insurance companies? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] (Q25–Q29 were asked in a random order for each respondent) 26. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of drug companies? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] 27. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of electric utility companies? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] 28. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large companies that own rental homes and apartments? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] 29. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large banks? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] 30. Who did you vote for in the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, or did you not vote? [Donald Trump / Kamala Harris / Someone else / I did not vote / Don't know / No opinion] 31. What is your age? [18 to 29 / 30 to 44 / 45 to 54 / 55 to 64 / 65 or older / Prefer not to answer] 32. What is your gender? [Man / Woman / Nonbinary or another gender / Prefer not to answer] 33. Are you Hispanic or Latino? [Yes / No / Prefer not to answer] 34. How would you describe your racial background? [White / Black or African American / Asian or Pacific Islander / Native American or Indigenous / Middle Eastern or North African / Other or multiracial / Prefer not to answer] 35. What is the highest level of school you have completed? [Less than high school / High school graduate / Vocational or trade school / Some college, no degree / Associate's degree / Bachelor's degree / Graduate or professional degree / Prefer not to answer] 36. Do you own or rent your home? [Own / Rent / Live with family or in another arrangement / Prefer not to answer] 37. Which one of these costs is hardest for your household to afford right now? [Housing / Health care / Groceries / Utilities / Transportation / Child care / Education / Another cost / None of these is hard to afford / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated) 38. Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party? [Democrat / Republican / Independent / Another party / Don't know / No opinion] 39. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat? [Strong Democrat / Not very strong Democrat / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q38 “Democrat”) 40. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican? [Strong Republican / Not very strong Republican / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q38 “Republican”) 41. And as of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or neither? [The Democratic Party / The Republican Party / Neither / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q38 “Independent” or “Another party” or “Don't know / No opinion”) 42. Which one of these words best describes your political views? [Conservative / Moderate / Liberal / Progressive / Socialist / Libertarian / None of these / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated) 43. Are you, or is any member of your household, a member of a labor union? [Yes / No / Prefer not to answer] 44. Which of these best describes your household's total income in 2025, before taxes? [Under $25,000 / $25,000 to under $50,000 / $50,000 to under $100,000 / $100,000 to under $200,000 / $200,000 or more / Prefer not to answer] 45. Which of these do you think would do the most to bring down inflation? [The Federal Reserve raising interest rates to slow borrowing and spending / Governments starting businesses that sell alongside private companies, to increase supply / Tax breaks and subsidies for private companies to produce more / Cutting regulations so private companies can produce more / None of these / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated) 46. Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this? [Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q47 instead) (source of its opening sentence: AFWH's own wording, written for this poll (AFWH's public-business question module, October 15, 2026).) 47. Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. Two that exist today: the U.S. Postal Service, which delivers packages alongside private companies like UPS and FedEx, and the Tennessee Valley Authority, a federally owned company that sells electricity. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this? [Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q46 instead) (source of its opening sentence: AFWH's own wording, written for this poll (AFWH's public-business question module, October 15, 2026). The two examples: the U.S. Postal Service is an independent establishment of the executive branch, 39 U.S.C. 201 (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/39/201); the Tennessee Valley Authority is a corporate agency of the United States (https://www.tva.com/about-tva).) 48. In which of these areas, if any, would you support governments starting businesses like this? Pick all that apply. [Building and renting homes / Hospitals and clinics / Child care centers / Making prescription drugs / Processing food / Grocery stores / Refining gasoline / Electric utilities / Internet service / Colleges / None of these / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated) (asked only in the web survey and live-interviewer calls) 49. If governments started businesses like this, do you think prices would be lower, about the same or higher than without them? [Lower / About the same / Higher / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion] 50. If governments started businesses like this, do you think there would be more for sale, about the same or less than without them? [More / About the same / Less / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion] 51. If governments started businesses like this, do you think quality would be better, about the same or worse than without them? [Better / About the same / Worse / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion] 52. Suppose a government-owned business made its costs public. How useful, if at all, would that be for showing whether private companies charge too much? [Very useful / Somewhat useful / Not very useful / Not at all useful / Don't know / No opinion] 53. If public money were used to start new businesses that sell goods or services, who should own and run them? [The government should own and run them / Private companies should own and run them / No preference / Public money shouldn't be spent on this / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated)

sha256 6fdf4f88103cf97d85df22bd6f587b25faef8b574acdce83e94154871d82c1a3

Response rates (AAPOR Standard Definitions)

Response rate 1 (RR1): 0.2%
Response rate 3 (RR3): 0.2%
Cooperation rate 1 (COOP1): 11.0%
Refusal rate 1 (REF1): 1.5%
Contact rate 1 (CON1): 1.7%

e = 1.0000: proportional allocation (the default of AAPOR Survey Outcome Rate Calculator 5.1 (2023), List Samples sheet) over the 7,960 cases whose eligibility was settled by contact (7,960 eligible, 0 screened out). Duplicate listings are left out because the frame check removed them from every drawn case. The questionnaire has no eligibility screener, and the Standard Definitions treat an unreached named-list case as eligible when none is required.

Final dispositions of the 482,056 voters drawn
AAPOR code	Disposition	Cases
1.1	Complete interview	875
2.1133	Replied STOP to the invitation	6,592
2.12	Break-off: started the survey (web link or phone) and stopped before completing it	493
3.20	Invitation delivered, no response	68,415
3.219	Invitation not delivered	1,779
3.23	Not attempted: no invitation sent and no call dialed	403,557
3.9	Invitation sent, no delivery status returned	345

RR1 by age band
Age band	Drawn	Completes	RR1
18-24	38,146	12	0.0%
25-34	61,472	28	0.0%
35-44	71,266	98	0.1%
45-54	69,907	141	0.2%
55-64	83,300	220	0.3%
65+	157,965	376	0.2%

RR1 by file party
File party	Drawn	Completes	RR1
Democrat	80,415	320	0.4%
Libertarian	937	7	0.7%
No Party	298,811	301	0.1%
Republican	101,893	247	0.2%

RR1 by race (voter file)
Race (voter file)	Drawn	Completes	RR1
Unknown	61,946	93	0.2%
Aian	1	0	0.0%
Asian American or Pacific Islander	3,082	1	0.0%
Black	288	1	0.3%
Hispanic	1,533	1	0.1%
White	415,206	779	0.2%

Rates use the formulas of the AAPOR Survey Outcome Rate Calculator 5.1 (2023), List Samples sheet; RR1 counts every drawn voter except duplicate listings.

Weighting appendix: trimming and the shadow estimate

Weight trimming

Bounds: none: each respondent keeps their design weight and the weighting adjustment is not bounded.

Weights trimmed: 0 (strategy: each recipe trimmed before the house rule's average).

Design effect before trimming: not recorded.

Design effect after trimming: 1.527.

Data-defect shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.ddc.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Expected electorate (N): 285,365, from the frozen turnout projection.

U.S. House: Brian Poindexter, Democrat minus Max Miller, Republican among decided respondents (n=801): headline basis +4.3, shadow arm +3.3 (correlation -0.000567, the state's 2020 value, shrunk toward the pooled value).

U.S. Senate: Sherrod Brown, Democrat minus Jon Husted, Republican among decided respondents (n=827): headline basis -0.7, shadow arm -1.8 (correlation -0.000567, the state's 2020 value, shrunk toward the pooled value).

Governor: Amy Acton, Democrat minus Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican among decided respondents (n=843): headline basis +2.7, shadow arm +1.7 (correlation -0.000567, the state's 2020 value, shrunk toward the pooled value).

Assumption: The correlation was measured on CES, an opt-in online panel, under our weighting recipe. Our voter-file estimator has no general-election history, so carrying CES's correlation over is an assumption.

Assumption: There is no midterm correlation source. The 2020 presidential correlation is applied to 2026 midterm contests.

Assumption: The correction produces no weights, so it has no design effect of its own. Its uncertainty is not estimated here.

A + recall shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.a-plus-recall.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Recalled 2024 vote: 875 respondents answered; Harris:Trump set to the certified 2024 ratio in OH-07 (44.4% Harris of the two-party vote).

U.S. House: Brian Poindexter, Democrat minus Max Miller, Republican among decided respondents (n=801): headline basis +4.3, A + recall +6.0 (shift +1.7).

U.S. Senate: Sherrod Brown, Democrat minus Jon Husted, Republican among decided respondents (n=827): headline basis -0.7, A + recall +0.5 (shift +1.2).

Governor: Amy Acton, Democrat minus Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican among decided respondents (n=843): headline basis +2.7, A + recall +4.1 (shift +1.4).

A + education shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.a-plus-education.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Status: not applicable. district scope OH-07: the CPS target is a state figure and the spec applies it only to statewide scopes; no sourced district target exists

A + post-ballot partials shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.a-plus-partials.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Post-ballot partials: 0 of 875 completes (0.0%); breakoff gap by file party: 0.0 points. The arm computes only above 10% or 3 points.

Status: not triggered. post-ballot partials are 0.0% of completes (rule: above 10%) and the breakoff gap by file party is 0.0 points (rule: above 3)

LV fitted shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.lv-fitted.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Status: awaiting validation. 875 of 875 respondents carry a draw-time file score; 0-9 intention groups: 9 824, 0-4 13, 5-6 5, 7-8 29, no answer 4.

Coefficients are fitted after the election on these respondents matched to the post-election voter file, by the frozen rule (inputs sha256 a38cb3f57fe9).

Per-state likely voters check (pollster.check.plv-state.v1; the headline recipe with the national and the state's own intention ratio side by side)

OH: own ratio 6.23 against the national 2.42; back-test: did not beat the national ratio.

U.S. House: Brian Poindexter, Democrat minus Max Miller, Republican among decided respondents (n=801): headline basis +20.8, Per-state likely voters +20.8 (shift +0.0).

U.S. Senate: Sherrod Brown, Democrat minus Jon Husted, Republican among decided respondents (n=827): headline basis +15.5, Per-state likely voters +15.4 (shift -0.0).

Governor: Amy Acton, Democrat minus Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican among decided respondents (n=843): headline basis +17.9, Per-state likely voters +18.1 (shift +0.1).

A + covariate undecided allocation shadow arm (pollster.shadow-arm.undecided-covariate.v1; a pre-registered shadow estimate, not the headline)

Undecided respondents (after leaners are pushed) are allocated by a model fitted on decided respondents: file party, recalled 2024 vote, presidential approval and county 2024 lean.

U.S. House: Brian Poindexter, Democrat minus Max Miller, Republican, 5.9% undecided (n=53): undecideds dropped +3.8, allocated +3.4 (shift -0.4; model gives 51% of undecideds to Max Miller, Republican).

U.S. Senate: Sherrod Brown, Democrat minus Jon Husted, Republican, 4.0% undecided (n=36): undecideds dropped -2.2, allocated -2.0 (shift +0.2; model gives 49% of undecideds to Jon Husted, Republican).

Governor: Amy Acton, Democrat minus Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican, 2.2% undecided (n=27): undecideds dropped +2.7, allocated +3.0 (shift +0.3; model gives 41% of undecideds to Vivek Ramaswamy, Republican).

Assumption: the undecided-allocation model measured CES 'Not Sure' respondents, who were never asked a leaner question; here the model allocates the smaller undecided-after-leaner group.

Assumption: The model is fitted on decided respondents; CES showed undecideds within a party, recall or approval cell are less partisan than decided ones, which the pooled allocation absorbed on the replay frame.

Assumption: CES is an opt-in panel; the replay tests the allocation rule, not voter-file sampling.

Turnout level scenarios (carried beside the estimates; not the headline, no weight changes)

Production level: 53.7% of 6,846,336 active registrants, 3,678,372 ballots.

Basis-matched level: 62.9% of 6,846,336 active registrants, 4,306,269 ballots.

OH file: 8,015,003 on the roll, 6,846,336 active; AFWH's Ohio turnout model, trained on the 2022 general election (version 20). Both are scored against the certified total ballots cast after the election.

AAPOR disclosure: further items

Data collection strategy (AAPOR A1)

A survey of OH-07 likely voters for the November 3, 2026 general election. Collection: Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey.

Who collected the interviews (AAPOR A2)

RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit, drew the sample and collected the interviews itself; no outside fieldwork vendor collected interviews.

Wording shown or read before the questions (AAPOR A3)

Invitation text (wave 1), 74,528 sent: "Hi {first_name}, RedBox Research is surveying {community} voters ({survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end, HELP for help."

Invitation text (wave 1), 1,992 sent: "Hi {first_name}, RedBox Research poll on the race for Congress in {community} ({survey_minutes} min): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end, HELP for help."

Invitation text (wave 1), 1,979 sent: "Hi {first_name}, RedBox Research: what do {community} voters think? {survey_minutes}-min poll, see results: {survey_url} Reply STOP to end, HELP for help."

Reminder text (wave 2), 11,169 sent: "Hi {first_name}, a reminder from RedBox Research: we're surveying {community} voters ({survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end, HELP for help."

Reminder text (wave 2), 4,393 sent: "Boomers dominate polls, {first_name}. Under 30? Be heard ({survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} RedBox Research. STOP to end, HELP for help"

Words in braces were filled in for each recipient when the text was sent.

Welcome screen before question 1: "Thanks for coming, {first_name|and welcome}." "We need {minutes} minutes of your time." (button: "Start survey").

The survey was self-administered on the web: there was no interviewer or AI script.

Likely voters (AAPOR A4)

No question screened respondents out of the interview. Each respondent's voter-file turnout score was updated by their answer to the vote-intention question (Q16), with an odds ratio of 2.42 between the lowest and highest answers. Respondents who said they had already voted (Q1) counted as certain to vote; a missing answer kept the file score; anyone else whose file score was zero got no weight. Each respondent's weight was multiplied by the updated score before raking to the targets.

Sample type (AAPOR A5a)

A probability sample: every voter was drawn at random, with a recorded seed, from the voter-file universe named in the disclosure. No response was generated by AI (no synthetic respondents were used).

Sample frame and its date (AAPOR A5b)

Voters were drawn from the AFWH voter file, built from the Ohio official state voter registration file dated October 7, 2026 (received October 7, 2026), for 478,822 drawn voters; and the Ohio official state voter registration file dated October 16, 2026 (received October 16, 2026), for 3,138 drawn voters. The voter-file date at the draw is not recorded for 96 drawn voters. Telephone numbers: of the 78,499 voters sent an invitation or called, 78,499 at numbers L2 appended to the voter record (order 132877).

Coverage (AAPOR A5c)

78,499 of the 482,056 drawn voters (16.3%) had a textable number and were sent an invitation; the other 403,557 could not be reached by text and are counted as not attempted (AAPOR 3.23).

Quotas (AAPOR A5e)

Sample draws were sized to 1,305 target cells. No interview was stopped or screened out because a cell was full (no case carries a quota-full or screen-out disposition).

Incentives and contact (AAPOR A5i)

No incentive is recorded for this poll, and Pollster has no step that pays or promises one; the wording of the texts sent is under A3. Contact: an invitation text and up to 1 reminder text.

Modes (AAPOR A6)

Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey. Language: English.

Interviews by frame and mode (AAPOR A8a)

Completed interviews by frame: OH-07 2026 general 875. By mode: web 875.

Margin of error (AAPOR A8c)

The margin of error is shown because the sample was drawn at random; with a low response rate it holds only as far as weighting corrects nonresponse.

Quality checks (AAPOR A10)

Each invited voter received a unique survey link; a link yields at most one interview. Quality flags recorded: 527 duplicate submissions. Flags are measured, not used to drop cases: all 875 interviews completed by the status date are in the weighted estimates.

Total error (AAPOR A11)

The margins of error describe sampling error with the design effect; they are not widened for other sources of error. The margin of error on the gap between two candidates is roughly twice the poll's margin of error; each race's own figure is given in the fine print with its result.

AI use (AAPOR A12)

(a) Task performed by AI: none in data collection; no AI interviewer or chatbot was used (Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey). AI in processing: No language model coded, weighted or wrote any published result; every published number and sentence is produced by deterministic code from the recorded responses. (b) Human oversight or validation: not applicable; no AI output enters the data or the published results.

Panel (AAPOR B1)

No panel: respondents were drawn fresh from the voter file for this poll.

Dispositions (AAPOR B5)

Standard: AAPOR Standard Definitions, 10th edition (2023), list samples: section 1.3 (phone surveys of named persons) and section 1.6 (SMS surveys of named persons).

Final dispositions of the 482,056 drawn cases:

1.1 Complete interview: 875

2.1133 Replied STOP to the invitation: 6,592

2.12 Break-off: started the survey (web link or phone) and stopped before completing it: 493

3.20 Invitation delivered, no response: 68,415

3.219 Invitation not delivered: 1,779

3.23 Not attempted: no invitation sent and no call dialed: 403,557

3.9 Invitation sent, no delivery status returned: 345

Outcome rates: RR1 0.2%; RR3 0.2%; COOP1 11.0%; REF1 1.5%; CON1 1.7%.

94,061 text invitations sent, 0 calls dialed.

Text message to the web survey: 78,499 cases attempted. RR1 1.1%; RR3 1.1%; COOP1 11.0%; REF1 9.0%; CON1 10.1%.

Each mode counts only the people it tried to reach and only the interviews completed in that mode: a voter texted who then finished by phone is a text non-complete and a phone complete. Each mode's RR3 uses the release's e.

Each voter's final disposition is the most informative outcome across every text and call (AAPOR Standard Definitions, 10th edition, pp. 9 and 13): a complete in either mode, then a screen-out, then a refusal or break-off, then the most informative unreached outcome.

How leads are called

Total-error band for this release: midterm general. AAPOR state presidential MAE 5.1 (2016, 2020); AAPOR 2018 state polls 4.64; primaries 9 (Silver). sd = MAE*sqrt(pi/2).

Release information

OH-07 2026 general — v2

Version 2 · Published Oct 24, 2026

Release: dfc9d331-bf4b-495e-a758-c675f4f4ffc9

Source checksum: 2609199c8c35e1582c67cd67fba505ceac8b6933a8f6dd64ab0a7840e3576c3c

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