Population: Likely voters (AFWH house estimate). The AFWH house estimate: the average of the anchored recipes that entered this read (recalled-vote recipe, recalled-vote recipe plus turnout groups, recalled vote among verified 2024 voters and recalled vote among verified 2024 voters plus turnout groups), each on our likely-voter model's turnout step, raked to the poll's electorate targets and to the certified 2024 presidential result through recalled 2024 vote, the Census college share of the geography's registered citizens and the likely electorate's share of each voter-file turnout-score group.
Weighted responses. Undecided answers are shown separately. A lead is called only when it is larger than the sampling margin widened by a 90% total-error band; otherwise it is within error.
Within error Aaron Flint has a narrow lead over Sam Forstag, 48.0% to 46.0%, within the margin of error (n = 754; the poll's margin of error ±4.6 points). Other answers, including undecided: 6.0%.
| Response | Percent | Interviews | 95% margin | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Flint, Republican | 48.0% | 263 | ±4.6 pp | |
| Sam Forstag, Democrat | 46.0% | 438 | ±4.6 pp | |
| Undecided | 2.5% | 24 | ±1.4 pp | |
| Nick Sheedy, Libertarian | 2.0% | 14 | ±1.3 pp | |
| Prefer not to answer | 1.2% | 10 | ±1.0 pp | |
| Someone else | 0.3% | 5 | ±0.5 pp |
Senate ballot choice
Lead called Kurt Alme leads Seth Bodnar, 45.8% to 37.0% (n = 754; the poll's margin of error ±4.6 points). Other answers, including undecided: 17.2%.
| Response | Percent | Interviews | 95% margin | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Alme, Republican | 45.8% | 250 | ±4.6 pp | |
| Seth Bodnar, independent | 37.0% | 351 | ±4.5 pp | |
| Alani Bankhead, Democrat | 10.4% | 93 | ±2.8 pp | |
| Undecided | 3.9% | 34 | ±1.8 pp | |
| Prefer not to answer | 1.1% | 10 | ±1.0 pp | |
| Kyle Austin, Libertarian | 1.0% | 8 | ±0.9 pp | |
| Someone else | 0.7% | 7 | ±0.8 pp | |
| Did not vote in this race | 0.1% | 1 | ±0.3 pp |
| gender | Sam Forstag, Democrat | Aaron Flint, Republican | Undecided | Prefer not to answer | Nick Sheedy, Libertarian | Someone else |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All respondents | 46.0% | 48.0% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Women | 52.9% | 41.7% * | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Men | 38.9% | 55.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 3.4% | 0.2% |
| Unknown | —Effective base too small | —Effective base too small | —Effective base too small | —Effective base too small | — | —Effective base too small |
* Small sample. A dash means the estimate is withheld because too few interviews support it; the reason is shown. Percentages may not total 100 because of rounding.
Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having (super PAC, FEC C00933085); conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit.
1.96 × √(design effect × 0.25 ÷ n) × 100, for a 50% result among all respondents
10 estimates are withheld because their base is too small to report.
| Variable | Category | Target | Weighted sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | Women | 48.7% | 48.5% |
| Men | 46.2% | 46.1% | |
| Unknown | 5.1% | 5.4% | |
| Age group | 18-29 | 8.4% | 8.4% |
| 30-44 | 18.7% | 18.7% | |
| 45-54 | 13.7% | 13.7% | |
| 55-64 | 16.4% | 16.4% | |
| 65+ | 42.8% | 42.9% | |
| 2024 presidential vote (recalled) | dem | 39.5% | 41.3% |
| Notvoted Other | 10.3% | 6.6% | |
| rep | 50.2% | 52.2% | |
| Education (four-year college degree) | college | 38.9% | 39.0% |
| Non College | 58.9% | 58.7% | |
| unknown | 2.3% | 2.3% | |
| Turnout score | t0-t2 | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| t3-t4 | 8.2% | 7.8% | |
| t5-t6 | 11.8% | 11.9% | |
| t7 | 8.9% | 9.0% | |
| t8 | 10.1% | 10.2% | |
| t9 | 54.4% | 54.6% | |
| Race and ethnicity (voter-file model) | Asian or Pacific Islander | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Black | 1.0% | 0.6% | |
| Hispanic | 2.0% | 2.1% | |
| Other | 4.8% | 4.8% | |
| White | 91.7% | 92.0% |
How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 general election in {place}?
Options: Already voted / Extremely likely / Very likely / Somewhat likely / Somewhat unlikely / Very unlikely / Extremely unlikely / Don't know / No opinion
Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. Senate?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”
Options in random order: Kurt Alme, Republican / Kyle Austin, Libertarian / Alani Bankhead, Democrat / Seth Bodnar, independent / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”
Options in random order: Kurt Alme, Republican / Kyle Austin, Libertarian / Alani Bankhead, Democrat / Seth Bodnar, independent / Someone else / Undecided
If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Undecided”
Options in random order: Kurt Alme, Republican / Kyle Austin, Libertarian / Alani Bankhead, Democrat / Seth Bodnar, independent / Someone else / Still undecided
Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Kurt Alme, Republican” or “Kyle Austin, Libertarian” or “Alani Bankhead, Democrat” or “Seth Bodnar, independent”
Options: Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion
Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”
Options in random order: Aaron Flint, Republican / Sam Forstag, Democrat / Nick Sheedy, Libertarian / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”
Options in random order: Aaron Flint, Republican / Sam Forstag, Democrat / Nick Sheedy, Libertarian / Someone else / Undecided
If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Undecided”
Options in random order: Aaron Flint, Republican / Sam Forstag, Democrat / Nick Sheedy, Libertarian / Someone else / Still undecided
Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Aaron Flint, Republican” or “Sam Forstag, Democrat” or “Nick Sheedy, Libertarian”
Options: Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion
How much have you thought about this election?
Options: A great deal / Some / A little / Not at all / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer
When it comes to the November election, would you say you are very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic, not very enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”
Options: Very enthusiastic / Somewhat enthusiastic / Not very enthusiastic / Not at all enthusiastic / Don't know / No opinion
On a scale from 0 to 9, where 0 means you definitely will not vote and 9 means you definitely will vote, how likely are you to vote in this election?
Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”
Options: 0 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hakeem Jeffries is handling his job as House Democratic Leader?
Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader?
Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job?
Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job?
Options: Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion
Should Democrats in Congress stay on their current course, or change direction?
Options: Stay on their current course / Change direction / Don't know / No opinion
If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else?
Options: Jeffries should become Speaker / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion
If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, should Chuck Schumer become Majority Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else?
Options: Schumer should become Majority Leader / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of health insurance companies?
Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of drug companies?
Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of electric utility companies?
Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large companies that own rental homes and apartments?
Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large banks?
Options: Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion
Who did you vote for in the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, or did you not vote?
Options: Donald Trump / Kamala Harris / Someone else / I did not vote / Don't know / No opinion
What is your age?
Options: 18 to 29 / 30 to 44 / 45 to 54 / 55 to 64 / 65 or older / Prefer not to answer
What is your gender?
Options: Man / Woman / Nonbinary or another gender / Prefer not to answer
Are you Hispanic or Latino?
Options: Yes / No / Prefer not to answer
How would you describe your racial background?
Options: White / Black or African American / Asian or Pacific Islander / Native American or Indigenous / Middle Eastern or North African / Other or multiracial / Prefer not to answer
What is the highest level of school you have completed?
Options: Less than high school / High school graduate / Vocational or trade school / Some college, no degree / Associate's degree / Bachelor's degree / Graduate or professional degree / Prefer not to answer
Do you own or rent your home?
Options: Own / Rent / Live with family or in another arrangement / Prefer not to answer
Which one of these costs is hardest for your household to afford right now?
Options in random order: Housing / Health care / Groceries / Utilities / Transportation / Child care / Education / Another cost / None of these is hard to afford / Don't know / No opinion
Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party?
Options: Democrat / Republican / Independent / Another party / Don't know / No opinion
Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Democrat”
Options: Strong Democrat / Not very strong Democrat / Don't know / No opinion
Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Republican”
Options: Strong Republican / Not very strong Republican / Don't know / No opinion
And as of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or neither?
Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Independent” or “Another party” or “Don't know / No opinion”
Options: The Democratic Party / The Republican Party / Neither / Don't know / No opinion
Which one of these words best describes your political views?
Options in random order: Conservative / Moderate / Liberal / Progressive / Socialist / Libertarian / None of these / Don't know / No opinion
Are you, or is any member of your household, a member of a labor union?
Options: Yes / No / Prefer not to answer
Which of these best describes your household's total income in 2025, before taxes?
Options: Under $25,000 / $25,000 to under $50,000 / $50,000 to under $100,000 / $100,000 to under $200,000 / $200,000 or more / Prefer not to answer
Which of these do you think would do the most to bring down inflation?
Options in random order: The Federal Reserve raising interest rates to slow borrowing and spending / Governments starting businesses that sell alongside private companies, to increase supply / Tax breaks and subsidies for private companies to produce more / Cutting regulations so private companies can produce more / None of these / Don't know / No opinion
Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this?
Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q43 instead
Options: Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion
Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. Two that exist today: the U.S. Postal Service, which delivers packages alongside private companies like UPS and FedEx, and the Tennessee Valley Authority, a federally owned company that sells electricity. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this?
Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q42 instead
Options: Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion
In which of these areas, if any, would you support governments starting businesses like this? Pick all that apply.
Options in random order: Building and renting homes / Hospitals and clinics / Child care centers / Making prescription drugs / Processing food / Grocery stores / Refining gasoline / Electric utilities / Internet service / Colleges / None of these / Don't know / No opinion
If governments started businesses like this, do you think prices would be lower, about the same or higher than without them?
Options: Lower / About the same / Higher / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion
If governments started businesses like this, do you think there would be more for sale, about the same or less than without them?
Options: More / About the same / Less / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion
If governments started businesses like this, do you think quality would be better, about the same or worse than without them?
Options: Better / About the same / Worse / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion
Suppose a government-owned business made its costs public. How useful, if at all, would that be for showing whether private companies charge too much?
Options: Very useful / Somewhat useful / Not very useful / Not at all useful / Don't know / No opinion
If public money were used to start new businesses that sell goods or services, who should own and run them?
Options in random order: The government should own and run them / Private companies should own and run them / No preference / Public money shouldn't be spent on this / Don't know / No opinion
Sponsored by A Fight Worth Having (super PAC, FEC C00933085); conducted by RedBox Research, AFWH's polling unit. Population: Likely voters (AFWH house estimate) in the declared poll frame (MT-01); weighted to the 2026-11-03 general electorate its pre-registered turnout verdict (record 6, arm C2′) sets: age from the turnout model's predicted 2026 electorate, trained only on elections since 2016, the other dimensions from the last comparable electorate; pre-registration 8293c1a3, harness 934d2e13, content 90b9aceb4ea2. Race is weighted to the likely electorate's composition by each voter's recorded race, else its verified surname-and-geography estimate, in place of the 2022 base's recorded-race shares the verdict carries. The AFWH house estimate: the average of the anchored recipes that entered this read (recalled-vote recipe, recalled-vote recipe plus turnout groups, recalled vote among verified 2024 voters and recalled vote among verified 2024 voters plus turnout groups), each on our likely-voter model's turnout step, raked to the poll's electorate targets and to the certified 2024 presidential result through recalled 2024 vote, the Census college share of the geography's registered citizens and the likely electorate's share of each voter-file turnout-score group. (MT-01). Likely-voter rule: No question screened respondents out of the interview. Each respondent's voter-file turnout score was updated by their answer to the vote-intention question (Q12), with an odds ratio of 2.42 between the lowest and highest answers. Respondents who said they had already voted (Q1) counted as certain to vote; a missing answer kept the file score; anyone else whose file score was zero got no weight. Each respondent's weight was multiplied by the updated score before raking to the targets. Our likely-voter model was set in advance; in backtests it did not clear its pre-registered accuracy bar, so we describe it as unvalidated. Sample frame: 356,374 voter-file records in universe "MT-01 2026 general" (State: MT; Office: house; Turnout model: AFWH's Montana turnout model, trained on the 2022 general election); random draw of 1,054; 60,830 sent a text invitation. Modes: Text message invitation to a self-administered web survey. Languages: English. Interviews completed October 20, 2026 to October 23, 2026. n = 754 completed interviews; 60,830 sampled voters were sent a text invitation; margin of error ±4.6 percentage points at 95% confidence including a design effect of 1.69. Effective sample size 447; the largest weight is 204.8 times the smallest. Turnout-score groups: Before fielding, the weighting added the voter-file turnout-score groups to this poll's targets: on its draw and final targets the methods check put a turnout-score group 2.4 points off the likely electorate (score 8 to 9: -2.2) without the groups, and 0.5 (+0.0) with them; design effect 1.044 to 1.043, clipped weight 0.00% to 0.06%. The turnout-score group targets come from AFWH's turnout model of record, which is not calibrated to 2026. Weighting: the house rule's weighted average of two anchored families of raking recipes to gender (women 48.7%, men 46.2%, gender not recorded 5.1%); age group (18-29 8.4%, 30-44 18.7%, 45-54 13.7%, 55-64 16.4%, 65+ 42.8%); 2024 presidential vote (recalled) (Harris 39.5%, did not vote or voted for someone else 10.3%, Trump 50.2%); education (four-year college degree) (college degree 38.9%, no college degree 58.9%, not recorded 2.3%); turnout score (score 0 to 2 6.6%, score 3 to 4 8.2%, score 5 to 6 11.8%, score 7 8.9%, score 8 10.1%, score 9 54.4%); race and ethnicity (voter-file model) (Asian or Pacific Islander 0.5%, Black 1.0%, Hispanic 2.0%, other races 4.8%, White 91.7%), from the 2026 electorate targets of the state's 2026 turnout verdict, set in advance; base weights are the inverse of each sampled voter's recorded selection probability within the stratified draw. Estimate: Each respondent's weight combines two families of weighting recipes anchored to the 2024 presidential vote: one to the certified result, one to the 2024 vote of respondents the voter file shows voted, each named candidate held to its certified share. Within a family, the recipes that pass the partisan checks are averaged, each recipe's weights scaled to a mean of 1 first. Each family counts in proportion to how often its average fits voter-file facts no recipe weights to best (2020 and 2022 turnout, registration year and county, and where the state's file of returned ballots is held, the early vote by party) over 500 resamples of respondents: certified 2024 recall (2 recipes), 0.2%; corrected 2024 recall of file-validated 2024 voters (2 recipes), 99.8%. Each recipe is bounded raking on the likely voters with its final weights trimmed at their 1st and 99th percentiles; recipes off the electorate's party mix by more than 3 points or the certified 2024 result by more than 5 were left out. Recipes without a 2024 vote anchor were computed as sensitivities only. A question asked of a random part of the sample is read on the same weights of the respondents who answered it Weight trimming: Each respondent's design weight was kept and raked to the targets with no bound on the weighting adjustment; 0 of 754 respondents' weights were trimmed. Processing: completed interviews only; partial interviews are excluded. Quality checks flagged 333 people who opened the survey and stopped before completing it, 420 duplicate submissions. 247 estimate(s) reported, 10 withheld under the reporting rules. Limitations: The margin of error (4.6 points at 95% confidence, including the design effect) describes sampling error for a result near 50% among all respondents. Results for subgroups carry larger margins, and question wording, coverage and nonresponse can also affect results. The margin of error on the gap between two candidates is roughly twice the poll's margin of error; each race's own figure is given in the fine print with its result. The sponsor is a political committee (a super PAC). Readers should weigh results with that sponsorship in mind. Respondents could be reached only through a telephone number matched to their voter record; voters without a usable number were outside the sample frame. Respondents answered online; people unable or unwilling to complete a web survey are represented only through weighting. 19 respondent(s) had no recorded age group and were not adjusted on that variable. 42 respondent(s) had no recorded race and ethnicity (voter-file model) and were not adjusted on that variable. 10 estimate(s) rest on fewer than 50 respondents and are not shown. Questions, as written (MT-01 2026 general, version 1): 1. How likely are you to vote in the November 3, 2026 general election in {place}? [Already voted / Extremely likely / Very likely / Somewhat likely / Somewhat unlikely / Very unlikely / Extremely unlikely / Don't know / No opinion] 2. Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. Senate? [Kurt Alme, Republican / Kyle Austin, Libertarian / Alani Bankhead, Democrat / Seth Bodnar, independent / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Montana: rotates by precinct (ballot sets; administrator may balance rotation within each house district) on the Montana ballot; Mont. Code Ann. 13-12-205)) 3. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for? [Kurt Alme, Republican / Kyle Austin, Libertarian / Alani Bankhead, Democrat / Seth Bodnar, independent / Someone else / Undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Montana: rotates by precinct (ballot sets; administrator may balance rotation within each house district) on the Montana ballot; Mont. Code Ann. 13-12-205)) 4. If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? [Kurt Alme, Republican / Kyle Austin, Libertarian / Alani Bankhead, Democrat / Seth Bodnar, independent / Someone else / Still undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Undecided”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Montana: rotates by precinct (ballot sets; administrator may balance rotation within each house district) on the Montana ballot; Mont. Code Ann. 13-12-205)) 5. Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate? [Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q3 “Kurt Alme, Republican” or “Kyle Austin, Libertarian” or “Alani Bankhead, Democrat” or “Seth Bodnar, independent”) 6. Who did you vote for in this year's general election for U.S. House of Representatives? [Aaron Flint, Republican / Sam Forstag, Democrat / Nick Sheedy, Libertarian / Someone else / Did not vote in this race / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q1 “Already voted”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Montana: rotates by precinct (ballot sets; administrator may balance rotation within each house district) on the Montana ballot; Mont. Code Ann. 13-12-205)) 7. If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, who would you vote for? [Aaron Flint, Republican / Sam Forstag, Democrat / Nick Sheedy, Libertarian / Someone else / Undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Montana: rotates by precinct (ballot sets; administrator may balance rotation within each house district) on the Montana ballot; Mont. Code Ann. 13-12-205)) 8. If you had to decide today, which candidate would you lean more toward? [Aaron Flint, Republican / Sam Forstag, Democrat / Nick Sheedy, Libertarian / Someone else / Still undecided] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Undecided”) (Candidate order: randomized for each respondent (Montana: rotates by precinct (ballot sets; administrator may balance rotation within each house district) on the Montana ballot; Mont. Code Ann. 13-12-205)) 9. Are you definitely or probably going to vote for that candidate? [Definitely / Probably / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted” and answered Q7 “Aaron Flint, Republican” or “Sam Forstag, Democrat” or “Nick Sheedy, Libertarian”) 10. How much have you thought about this election? [A great deal / Some / A little / Not at all / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer] 11. When it comes to the November election, would you say you are very enthusiastic about voting, somewhat enthusiastic, not very enthusiastic, or not at all enthusiastic? [Very enthusiastic / Somewhat enthusiastic / Not very enthusiastic / Not at all enthusiastic / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) 12. On a scale from 0 to 9, where 0 means you definitely will not vote and 9 means you definitely will vote, how likely are you to vote in this election? [0 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 4 / 5 / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / Don't know / No opinion / Prefer not to answer] (Asked only of respondents who were asked Q1 and did not answer “Already voted”) 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hakeem Jeffries is handling his job as House Democratic Leader? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] (Q13–Q17 were asked in a random order for each respondent) 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chuck Schumer is handling his job as Senate Democratic Leader? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] 15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] 17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job? [Strongly approve / Somewhat approve / Somewhat disapprove / Strongly disapprove / Don't know / No opinion] 18. Should Democrats in Congress stay on their current course, or change direction? [Stay on their current course / Change direction / Don't know / No opinion] 19. If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 election, should Hakeem Jeffries become Speaker of the House, or should Democrats choose someone else? [Jeffries should become Speaker / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion] 20. If Democrats win control of the Senate in the 2026 election, should Chuck Schumer become Majority Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else? [Schumer should become Majority Leader / Democrats should choose someone else / It doesn't matter to me / Don't know / No opinion] 21. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of health insurance companies? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] (Q21–Q25 were asked in a random order for each respondent) 22. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of drug companies? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] 23. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of electric utility companies? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] 24. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large companies that own rental homes and apartments? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] 25. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of large banks? [Strongly favorable / Somewhat favorable / Somewhat unfavorable / Strongly unfavorable / Not familiar enough to say / Don't know / No opinion] 26. Who did you vote for in the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, or did you not vote? [Donald Trump / Kamala Harris / Someone else / I did not vote / Don't know / No opinion] 27. What is your age? [18 to 29 / 30 to 44 / 45 to 54 / 55 to 64 / 65 or older / Prefer not to answer] 28. What is your gender? [Man / Woman / Nonbinary or another gender / Prefer not to answer] 29. Are you Hispanic or Latino? [Yes / No / Prefer not to answer] 30. How would you describe your racial background? [White / Black or African American / Asian or Pacific Islander / Native American or Indigenous / Middle Eastern or North African / Other or multiracial / Prefer not to answer] 31. What is the highest level of school you have completed? [Less than high school / High school graduate / Vocational or trade school / Some college, no degree / Associate's degree / Bachelor's degree / Graduate or professional degree / Prefer not to answer] 32. Do you own or rent your home? [Own / Rent / Live with family or in another arrangement / Prefer not to answer] 33. Which one of these costs is hardest for your household to afford right now? [Housing / Health care / Groceries / Utilities / Transportation / Child care / Education / Another cost / None of these is hard to afford / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated) 34. Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, an independent or a member of another party? [Democrat / Republican / Independent / Another party / Don't know / No opinion] 35. Would you call yourself a strong Democrat or a not very strong Democrat? [Strong Democrat / Not very strong Democrat / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Democrat”) 36. Would you call yourself a strong Republican or a not very strong Republican? [Strong Republican / Not very strong Republican / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Republican”) 37. And as of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or neither? [The Democratic Party / The Republican Party / Neither / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked only of respondents who answered Q34 “Independent” or “Another party” or “Don't know / No opinion”) 38. Which one of these words best describes your political views? [Conservative / Moderate / Liberal / Progressive / Socialist / Libertarian / None of these / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated) 39. Are you, or is any member of your household, a member of a labor union? [Yes / No / Prefer not to answer] 40. Which of these best describes your household's total income in 2025, before taxes? [Under $25,000 / $25,000 to under $50,000 / $50,000 to under $100,000 / $100,000 to under $200,000 / $200,000 or more / Prefer not to answer] 41. Which of these do you think would do the most to bring down inflation? [The Federal Reserve raising interest rates to slow borrowing and spending / Governments starting businesses that sell alongside private companies, to increase supply / Tax breaks and subsidies for private companies to produce more / Cutting regulations so private companies can produce more / None of these / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated) 42. Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this? [Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q43 instead) (source of its opening sentence: AFWH's own wording, written for this poll (AFWH's public-business question module, October 15, 2026).) 43. Consider new businesses that a local, state or federal government would own and run. Public money would help start them, they would charge customers for their goods or services, and private companies would keep operating alongside them. Two that exist today: the U.S. Postal Service, which delivers packages alongside private companies like UPS and FedEx, and the Tennessee Valley Authority, a federally owned company that sells electricity. In general, do you support or oppose governments starting businesses like this? [Strongly support / Somewhat support / Somewhat oppose / Strongly oppose / Don't know / No opinion] (Asked of a randomly assigned half of respondents; the others were asked Q42 instead) (source of its opening sentence: AFWH's own wording, written for this poll (AFWH's public-business question module, October 15, 2026). The two examples: the U.S. Postal Service is an independent establishment of the executive branch, 39 U.S.C. 201 (https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/39/201); the Tennessee Valley Authority is a corporate agency of the United States (https://www.tva.com/about-tva).) 44. In which of these areas, if any, would you support governments starting businesses like this? Pick all that apply. [Building and renting homes / Hospitals and clinics / Child care centers / Making prescription drugs / Processing food / Grocery stores / Refining gasoline / Electric utilities / Internet service / Colleges / None of these / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated) (asked only in the web survey and live-interviewer calls) 45. If governments started businesses like this, do you think prices would be lower, about the same or higher than without them? [Lower / About the same / Higher / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion] 46. If governments started businesses like this, do you think there would be more for sale, about the same or less than without them? [More / About the same / Less / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion] 47. If governments started businesses like this, do you think quality would be better, about the same or worse than without them? [Better / About the same / Worse / It would depend on the industry / Don't know / No opinion] 48. Suppose a government-owned business made its costs public. How useful, if at all, would that be for showing whether private companies charge too much? [Very useful / Somewhat useful / Not very useful / Not at all useful / Don't know / No opinion] 49. If public money were used to start new businesses that sell goods or services, who should own and run them? [The government should own and run them / Private companies should own and run them / No preference / Public money shouldn't be spent on this / Don't know / No opinion] (answer options in a random order for each respondent; options such as “Not sure” are not rotated)
sha256 b551804ea3fa5cd11116a8814f4368e4fb6cd60940169bb1380bf2c41bb61bcf
e = 1.0000: proportional allocation (the default of AAPOR Survey Outcome Rate Calculator 5.1 (2023), List Samples sheet) over the 6,875 cases whose eligibility was settled by contact (6,875 eligible, 0 screened out). Duplicate listings are left out because the frame check removed them from every drawn case. The questionnaire has no eligibility screener, and the Standard Definitions treat an unreached named-list case as eligible when none is required.
| AAPOR code | Disposition | Cases |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1 | Complete interview | 754 |
| 2.1133 | Replied STOP to the invitation | 5,788 |
| 2.12 | Break-off: started the survey (web link or phone) and stopped before completing it | 333 |
| 3.20 | Invitation delivered, no response | 51,887 |
| 3.219 | Invitation not delivered | 1,896 |
| 3.23 | Not attempted: no invitation sent and no call dialed | 295,544 |
| 3.9 | Invitation sent, no delivery status returned | 172 |
| Age band | Drawn | Completes | RR1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18-24 | 30,147 | 27 | 0.1% |
| 25-34 | 49,176 | 37 | 0.1% |
| 35-44 | 55,085 | 105 | 0.2% |
| 45-54 | 51,588 | 125 | 0.2% |
| 55-64 | 53,521 | 143 | 0.3% |
| 65+ | 116,857 | 317 | 0.3% |
| File party | Drawn | Completes | RR1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unknown | 356,374 | 754 | 0.2% |
| Race (voter file) | Drawn | Completes | RR1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unknown | 214,727 | 434 | 0.2% |
| Aian | 48 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Asian American or Pacific Islander | 645 | 1 | 0.2% |
| Black | 118 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Hispanic | 5,511 | 9 | 0.2% |
| White | 135,325 | 310 | 0.2% |
Rates use the formulas of the AAPOR Survey Outcome Rate Calculator 5.1 (2023), List Samples sheet; RR1 counts every drawn voter except duplicate listings.
Bounds: none: each respondent keeps their design weight and the weighting adjustment is not bounded.
Weights trimmed: 0 (strategy: each recipe trimmed before the house rule's average).
Design effect before trimming: not recorded.
Design effect after trimming: 1.685.
Expected electorate (N): 222,244, from the frozen turnout projection.
U.S. House: Sam Forstag, Democrat minus Aaron Flint, Republican among decided respondents (n=720): headline basis -2.1, shadow arm -2.8 (correlation -0.000420, the state's 2020 value, shrunk toward the pooled value).
U.S. Senate: Alani Bankhead, Democrat minus Kurt Alme, Republican among decided respondents (n=709): headline basis -37.4, shadow arm -37.8 (correlation -0.000420, the state's 2020 value, shrunk toward the pooled value).
Assumption: The correlation was measured on CES, an opt-in online panel, under our weighting recipe. Our voter-file estimator has no general-election history, so carrying CES's correlation over is an assumption.
Assumption: There is no midterm correlation source. The 2020 presidential correlation is applied to 2026 midterm contests.
Assumption: The correction produces no weights, so it has no design effect of its own. Its uncertainty is not estimated here.
Recalled 2024 vote: 754 respondents answered; Harris:Trump set to the certified 2024 ratio in MT-01 (44.0% Harris of the two-party vote).
U.S. House: Sam Forstag, Democrat minus Aaron Flint, Republican among decided respondents (n=720): headline basis -2.1, A + recall +2.0 (shift +4.0).
U.S. Senate: Alani Bankhead, Democrat minus Kurt Alme, Republican among decided respondents (n=709): headline basis -37.4, A + recall -33.9 (shift +3.4).
Status: not applicable. district scope MT-01: the CPS target is a state figure and the spec applies it only to statewide scopes; no sourced district target exists
Post-ballot partials: 0 of 754 completes (0.0%); breakoff gap by file party: not measurable. The arm computes only above 10% or 3 points.
Status: not triggered. post-ballot partials are 0.0% of completes (rule: above 10%) and the breakoff gap by file party is not measurable (rule: above 3)
Status: awaiting validation. 754 of 754 respondents carry a draw-time file score; 0-9 intention groups: 9 709, 0-4 11, 5-6 7, 7-8 24, no answer 3.
Coefficients are fitted after the election on these respondents matched to the post-election voter file, by the frozen rule (inputs sha256 6abf30cc9fef).
MT: own ratio 2.42 against the national 2.42; back-test: did not beat the national ratio.
Status: national ratio. 141 training rows, 125 validated voters, 16 validated non-voters; the floor is 300 rows with 50 of each
Undecided respondents (after leaners are pushed) are allocated by a model fitted on decided respondents: file party, recalled 2024 vote, presidential approval and county 2024 lean.
U.S. House: Sam Forstag, Democrat minus Aaron Flint, Republican, 2.8% undecided (n=28): undecideds dropped -1.9, allocated -2.6 (shift -0.7; model gives 63% of undecideds to Aaron Flint, Republican).
U.S. Senate: Alani Bankhead, Democrat minus Kurt Alme, Republican, 3.6% undecided (n=31): undecideds dropped -37.1, allocated -36.7 (shift +0.4; model gives 73% of undecideds to Kurt Alme, Republican).
Assumption: the undecided-allocation model measured CES 'Not Sure' respondents, who were never asked a leaner question; here the model allocates the smaller undecided-after-leaner group.
Assumption: The model is fitted on decided respondents; CES showed undecideds within a party, recall or approval cell are less partisan than decided ones, which the pooled allocation absorbed on the replay frame.
Assumption: CES is an opt-in panel; the replay tests the allocation rule, not voter-file sampling.
Production level: 61.2% of 674,719 active registrants, 412,794 ballots.
Basis-matched level: 72.7% of 674,719 active registrants, 490,400 ballots.
MT file: 801,568 on the roll, 674,719 active; AFWH's Montana turnout model, trained on the 2022 general election (version 1). Both are scored against the certified total ballots cast after the election.
Invitation text (wave 1), 52,471 sent: "Hi {first_name}, RedBox Research is surveying {community} voters ({survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end, HELP for help."
Invitation text (wave 1), 4,203 sent: "Hi {first_name}, RedBox Research poll on the race for Congress in {community} ({survey_minutes} min): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end, HELP for help."
Invitation text (wave 1), 4,156 sent: "Hi {first_name}, RedBox Research: what do {community} voters think? {survey_minutes}-min poll, see results: {survey_url} Reply STOP to end, HELP for help."
Reminder text (wave 2), 8,542 sent: "Boomers dominate polls, {first_name}. Under 30? Be heard ({survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} RedBox Research. STOP to end, HELP for help"
Reminder text (wave 2), 1,411 sent: "Hi {first_name}, a reminder from RedBox Research: we're surveying {community} voters ({survey_minutes} MIN): {survey_url} Reply STOP to end, HELP for help."
Words in braces were filled in for each recipient when the text was sent.
Welcome screen before question 1: "Thanks for coming, {first_name|and welcome}." "We need {minutes} minutes of your time." (button: "Start survey").
The survey was self-administered on the web: there was no interviewer or AI script.
Standard: AAPOR Standard Definitions, 10th edition (2023), list samples: section 1.3 (phone surveys of named persons) and section 1.6 (SMS surveys of named persons).
Final dispositions of the 356,374 drawn cases:
1.1 Complete interview: 754
2.1133 Replied STOP to the invitation: 5,788
2.12 Break-off: started the survey (web link or phone) and stopped before completing it: 333
3.20 Invitation delivered, no response: 51,887
3.219 Invitation not delivered: 1,896
3.23 Not attempted: no invitation sent and no call dialed: 295,544
3.9 Invitation sent, no delivery status returned: 172
Outcome rates: RR1 0.2%; RR3 0.2%; COOP1 11.0%; REF1 1.7%; CON1 1.9%.
70,783 text invitations sent, 0 calls dialed.
Text message to the web survey: 60,830 cases attempted. RR1 1.2%; RR3 1.2%; COOP1 11.0%; REF1 10.1%; CON1 11.3%.
Each mode counts only the people it tried to reach and only the interviews completed in that mode: a voter texted who then finished by phone is a text non-complete and a phone complete. Each mode's RR3 uses the release's e.
Each voter's final disposition is the most informative outcome across every text and call (AAPOR Standard Definitions, 10th edition, pp. 9 and 13): a complete in either mode, then a screen-out, then a refusal or break-off, then the most informative unreached outcome.
e = 1.0000: proportional allocation (the default of AAPOR Survey Outcome Rate Calculator 5.1 (2023), List Samples sheet) over the 6,875 cases whose eligibility was settled by contact (6,875 eligible, 0 screened out). Duplicate listings are left out because the frame check removed them from every drawn case. The questionnaire has no eligibility screener, and the Standard Definitions treat an unreached named-list case as eligible when none is required.
Total-error band for this release: midterm general. AAPOR state presidential MAE 5.1 (2016, 2020); AAPOR 2018 state polls 4.64; primaries 9 (Silver). sd = MAE*sqrt(pi/2).
MT-01 2026 general — v2
Version 2 · Published Oct 24, 2026
Release: b281b264-92b9-41ca-808f-21e2ea2a7ea2
Source checksum: 074cac6e45567ab62d619ade73829e54b00bfeb370706170be438c77400a6315