Florida · U.S. Senate · November 3
Angie Nixon vs. Ashley Moody
One point apart in the latest poll. She can win. Three TV ads. Your dollar gets them on TV.
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TV ads
Three spots. This is what your money runs.
Vote for Literally Anyone Else
Video 1
A vote for Ashley Moody is a vote for Donald J. Trump. If you've had enough of Trump, don't send his biggest fan to Congress.
More of Donald Trump
Video 2
Voting for Ashley Moody is the same as voting for more of Donald Trump: more foreign wars, higher prices, more inflation, more national debt.
Trump Can Do No Wrong
Video 3
Donald Trump can do no wrong, according to Ashley Moody. If you don't like what Trump is doing for America, don't vote for Ashley Moody.
Voters are angry and Trump’s numbers are falling, 17 points underwater in a state he won by 13. These ads work because they tie that anger to Moody, a Trump zealot. If Floridians want change, Ashley Moody isn’t it.
Angie Nixon, in her own words
“Florida deserves a senator who solves problems, not a politician who peddles hypocrisy and preys on vulnerable communities.”
On Ashley Moody, September 25, 2026
“They can take their tech-bro cash and their weird, intrusive agenda somewhere else, because I’m not going any damn place.”
On JD Vance and Ashley Moody, October 1, 2026
Can she win
A race the pros rate Safe Republican is within one point before a single AFWH ad has aired.
- Nixon, St. Pete Polls, Sept 15 to 17 (Moody 45)
- 45%
- Trump approval among Florida voters, Civiqs tracker, Sept 17 (55 disapprove)
- 39%
- Trump's net swing in Florida since Jan 20, 2025, from +9 to -16
- -25 pts
The latest poll, one point
Change Research, Sept 25 to 27, 2026, 1,063 likely voters, margin of error 2.8 points, sponsored by Freedom Project USA. Ashley Moody 48. Angie Nixon 47. Don't know 5.
Other September polls on record. Stetson (Sept 21, 830 likely voters): Moody 51, Nixon 40. InsiderAdvantage (Sept 21, 600 likely voters): Moody 49, Nixon 42. St. Pete Polls (Sept 17, 913 likely voters): 45 to 45.
Direct mailers
Direct to voters’ homes, a reminder of everything they hate about Trump.
A vote for Moody is a vote for more of Trump
Ashley Moody voted with Trump 100%
Why this race
“This is a movement race. This is a Democratic Socialist running against a Trump Republican. Winning a seat like this would transform the trajectory of the Democratic Party. Even performing well will have an impact.”
“Ashley Moody is standing hand in hand. With her arms wrapped around Trump.”
Corbin Trent, A Fight Worth Having
Path to victory
Who has to vote.
Win number, two-way race: about 3.63 million of the 7.27 million voters AFWH's turnout model expects in November. The model is trained on Florida's 2022 general election.
Val Demings got 3.20 million in 2022. Nixon needs about 430,000 more on the same turnout.
Expected voters by registration: Republican 3.66 million, Democrat 2.10 million, no party 1.32 million.
Hold Democrats at 92%. That is 1.93 million. Win no-party voters 60 to 40. That is 0.79 million more. Together, 2.72 million. The last 915,000 have to come from Republican-registered voters who have left Trump and from voters the model does not expect to show up.
The failure the ads name
Incomes rose 31% since 2019. Everything you need rose faster.
- Broward homeowners premium with wind, Florida OIR, March 2026
- $6.1K
- Florida median rent, 2019 to 2024, Census ACS
- +46%
- Florida median home value, 2019 to 2024, Census ACS
- +62%
Fund the ads
A Fight Worth Having buys the airtime itself. Not a dime goes through the campaign. That is what independent means.
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Paid for by A Fight Worth Having (www.afightworthhaving.com) and not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.