Memorandum

From April 28 - May 10, 2026, we conducted a poll of 422 likely voters in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary election for Congress in New York’s 15th District, fielded by Braun Research of Princeton, NJ. The survey’s margin of error is ±4.9%.

Overview

Our poll of likely Democratic voters in the June 2026 primary for Congress in New York’s 15th District in the Bronx shows incumbent Ritchie Torres strongly positioned for reelection, with a lead of 60%-15% over Michael Blake, and 7% for LaRouche-affiliated Jose Vega. 

• Torres’s vote total is boosted by overwhelming support from older voters, who make up a large share of the projected electorate. 

• However, Torres’s wide lead is reversed upon hearing messages that highlight his support for the war on Iran, failure to lead on Medicare for All or to hold Trump accountable, and ties to AIPAC. Voters also respond strongly to potential pro-Blake messages like Medicare for All, canceling student debt, refusing to fund the Iran war, and blocking arms sales to Israel, particularly if they hear that Blake is part of a coalition of candidates with those goals. After learning all of this, District 15 voters shift toward Blake by a 41%-38% margin.

• Though older voters are still Torres’s strongest base after hearing these messages, they show a bigger drop in support for Torres than any other age group (33%, compared with the districtwide drop of 22% in support for Torres after messaging).

The same messages that reverse Torres’s lead are also potent arguments against the Democratic congressional leadership of Hakeem Jeffries. While District 15 voters initially indicate by a two-to-one, 60%-32% margin that Jeffries should continue as Leader if Democrats win control of Congress this year, they opt to replace Jeffries by a similarly wide 59%-32% after learning about Jeffries’s support for the Iran war, his failure to deliver on affordability or Medicare for All, or to stand up effectively to Donald Trump.

• The two strongest voter concerns with Jeffries are his failure to fight for Medicare for All and his support for Israel during the Gaza genocide, with over two-thirds (68%) of NY15 Democratic primary voters rating each as strong reasons to replace him as Leader. Almost as many (67%) call Jeffries’s breaking Democrats’ affordability promises (like expanded Medicare, paid family leave, extending the Child Tax Credit expansion, and increasing the minimum wage) a strong reason to replace him, as do 66% for his failure to effectively fight Trump, 65% for supporting war with Iran, and for Silicon Valley donations, and 63% for voting to fund ICE.

• Black voters, while initially most supportive of Jeffries, show the sharpest shift against his leadership. Currently, Black voters say Jeffries should continue as leader by a 74%-20% margin. But upon hearing criticisms, they opt to replace him by 46%-42%.

• The top concerns about Jeffries among Black voters are his support for Israel during the Gaza genocide and his breaking of Democrats’ affordability promises, with 68% rating each as strong reasons to replace him.

Any path for Blake needs to both turn out younger voters and persuade mostly older high-turnout voters. Younger voters are currently the least pro-Torres group (supporting him by only 36%-27%), and swing to Blake by a two-to-one margin (54%-27%) after seeing messages. In contrast, older voters currently support Torres by an overwhelming 81%-5% margin, but after messages his support drops with those 65 and over by over 30 points — more than any other age group — to a narrower, 50%-27% lead over Blake, close enough to allow him to win if he also turns out young voters. Blake’s task is turning out as many young voters as possible through field organizing, while persuading older voters through paid messaging.

Messages like those in this poll — about Democratic leadership’s support for ICE funding, the Iran war, and Gaza genocide, its failure to deliver on its affordability promises, or its funding from Palantir and AIPAC — are never tested by mainstream consultants, not because they don’t work, but because they do. Their impact against Torres and Jeffries illustrates exactly why Democratic leadership has been so eager to suppress this conversation. 

• In Brooklyn’s District 8, Jeffries was able to squelch a major primary challenger, and used a ballot challenge to eliminate a less-known one. 

• In District 15, Blake has some name recognition from his time in the state Assembly and runs for other offices (he came in second to Torres in the 2020 open primary). He has been using many of the messages we tested. But he reportedly has insufficient cash on hand to adequately bring these impactful messages to voters through paid media.

While Democratic base voters are receptive to arguments for replacing Democratic leadership, the case has to be made. Absent these messages, they are supportive of Schumer, Jeffries, and Democrats in Congress. But it’s notable that anti-leadership messages like Iran, Gaza, and Medicare for All — whether aimed at Hakeem Jeffries or at local incumbent Ritchie Torres — resonate so strongly with voters of color that the currently overwhelming support for both politicians among Black and Latino voters quickly collapses. 

And it is clear that the belief that Black voters will stick with Jeffries no matter what is simply wrong — they show strong concern about his affordability failure, his support for Israel, failure to fight Trump and to pass Medicare for All, and are open to replacing his leadership after seeing these messages.

Political Environment

District 15 voters currently show strong approval for Torres and Democratic leadership.

• Any incumbent with a 68% approval rating such as Torres holds would be considered an overwhelming favorite for reelection, since voting closely follows job approval (more than favorability) — unless voters are given compelling reasons to reverse that judgment. Torres holds an even more formidable 80% approval rating from so-called “triple prime voters” with a voter history of turning out in primaries.

• Torres’s strong job approval is heavily driven by older voters. His rating with voters under age 50 is only 50%, rising to 63% among those 50 to 64, and an overwhelming 89% among voters 65 and over.

• With three in four District 15 Democrats (74%) expressing approval of Democrats in Congress, it appears the party is benefiting from partisan polarization under the Trump Administration, rather than being held responsible for any disappointments. To a lesser extent, this holds true for Democratic congressional leadership, with Hakeem Jeffries scoring 63% job approval, and 61% for Chuck Schumer.

While Ritchie Torres holds a strongly favorable rating among Democrats in District 15, he is less popular than neighboring Congressmember Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Even though AOC did previously represent some portions of NY15 as currently drawn, it is unusual for a neighboring representative to be more popular than the district’s own incumbent.

• Torres’s favorability, like his job approval, are boosted by tremendous ratings from voters over 65, 86% of whom like him. His favorability is 65% among voters from 50 to 64, and 54% among those age 50 and under.

• Torres is most strongly liked by Black voters (77%), followed by 70% among whites and 63% among Latinos.

Democratic Leadership

As noted, Democratic primary voters in NY15 give strong job approval ratings to Democrats in Congress, Jeffries as House leader, and Schumer as Senate leader. These figures score strong favorability ratings as well — though none as strong as AOC. It follows that when asked whether Jeffries should continue as Democratic Leader if Democrats win control of the House, voters’ answer is yes by a two-to-one, 61%-31% margin. 

• Support for Jeffries’s continued leadership is strongest (74%) among Black voters in the district, and nearly as strong (70%) among white voters, but only 52% among Latino voters.

Democrats in District 15 were asked to rate a number of arguments in favor of replacing Hakeem Jeffries as Democratic leader. (See topline report for full wording.) All messages were considered very or somewhat strong by over six in ten voters, topped by Jeffries’s failure to fight for Medicare for All (68%) and his support for Israel during the Gaza genocide.

• Failing to fight for Medicare for All while being funded by insurance industry donations ranks as a top reason to replace Jeffries among women and with white voters. White voters also rate Jeffries’s support for war with Iran as a top reason to replace him.

• The Gaza genocide, and Jeffries’s longstanding support for Israel, were top concerns for Latino and Black voters, especially younger Latino voters.

• Jeffries’s ties to Silicon Valley donors, and his refusal to push for public AI, are ranked by men and by Black voters under 50 as the strongest reason to replace Jeffries.

• For South Bronx voters, the Gaza genocide is the strongest reason to replace Jeffries.

Torres vs. Blake

Ritchie Torres holds a commanding lead 60%-15% over Michael Blake that would be hard to overcome in the 5 weeks before Primary Day, particularly without a sufficient budget to communicate the messages that are shown in this poll to have a major impact. 

• After voters have read brief profile descriptions of Torres and Blake (see topline report for complete wording), Blake doubles his support, while Torres declines slightly, though still comfortably above 50%. 

• The race further narrows to single digits, though with Torres still leading, after voters have read 7 positive messages for Blake. 

• Only after voters have heard 6 criticisms of Torres does Blake gain a narrow lead of 41%-38%, which is within the poll’s margin of error, with 4 percent supporting Jose Vega (who is not expected to have funds for mass messaging) and 18% undecided. (Undecided voters generally break against an incumbent.)

While Torres shows overwhelming support among certain voter groups in his current support, he is not equally strong with all demographics. 

• Torres shows no real gender gap, but age is a huge determinant of his support, with his vote share rising from 35% among voters under 35 (with Blake behind by only single digits, at 29%), to 41% among those 35 to 49, 54% among those 50 to 64, and 84% among those 65 and over, who turn out most heavily.

• Torres has strong support among white voters (70%) and Black voters (71%), but is much weaker among Latino voters (48%).

• Education, which correlates with income, is also a factor in Torres’s vote share. The incumbent has 73% support from voters with a post-graduate education, and 65% among those for whom a college degree was their highest academic level, but only 52% from those without college degrees.

• Torres is about equally strong in the Northwest (60%) and South Bronx (59%).

Persuasion targets for Blake’s campaign would be quite different from his turnout targets. Several of the demographic groups most supportive of Torres — such as voters over age 65, and Black voters — show the greatest shift away from Torres (either from Torres to Blake or undecided, or from undecided to Blake) after reading campaign messages.

• Overall, 33% of Black voters shift away from Torres. Nearly half (45%) of Black women shift from him, and older Black voters also show a great shift (41%) from the incumbent.

• Women 50-plus are a big Blake persuasion target — 38% of them move from Torres.

• Older voters shift away from Torres more than younger ones (who are Torres’s least supportive group to begin with, so they have fewer pro-Torres votes to shift). Only 8% of voters under 35 shift from Torres, while 33% of the oldest (and highest-turnout) group of voters move in that direction. Older Latino voters are more than twice as likely (23%) as younger Latinos (10%) to be persuaded against Torres. 

Positive Messages for Blake

All seven positive potential Blake messages are rated as “strong” by at least six in ten NY15 Democratic voters, with stopping the Iran war and finally passing Medicare for All at the top. Further, two thirds of voters rate canceling student debt, reclaiming public hospitals from for-profit chains, and ending arms sales to Israel as “strong” reasons to vote for Blake. (See topline report for full wording.)

Most of Blake’s messages score more highly when voters are told that the challenger is part of a national team who share those goals. Our split-sample experiment presented voters with versions that informed one random half that “Blake is part of a national team of dozens of candidates for Congress” who support each of the listed goals. The other half saw versions that attribute those same goals to Blake alone. Four of the seven messages show a clear lift when Blake is presented as part of a coalition. In none of the remaining three does a solo message test more strongly than the coalition version. 

Although the “team” messages were all ahead of or tied with the “solo” messages, when voters are asked again who they support for Congress, assuming all the messages are true, we find no lift for Blake among voters who heard the “team” set of positive messages, compared to those hearing the “solo” versions. (Torres leads by 44%-39% among voters who heard “team” positives, and by 45%-38% among those who heard “solo” positives, a non-significant difference.)

Among voters who are found to shift toward Blake after hearing campaign messages, his positives most rated as “very strong reasons” to vote for him are: stopping the Iran war (76%), passing Medicare for All (71%), and ending arms sales to Israel (63%). These messages are also the top-rated ones for the key persuasion groups of Black women, and women 50 and over.

Negative Messages Against Torres

Blake’s positive messaging brings him to within single digits of Torres (45%-39%, combining voters who heard the “solo” and “team” versions of Blake’s positives) with enough undecided voters (12%) to put him over the top. But only after voters hear a series of attacks on Torres does Blake pull into a narrow lead (41%-38%, with 4% for Vega and 18% undecided) while also increasing the pool of undecided voters, who normally break against incumbents.

Fortunately for Blake, each of the seven tested criticisms of Torres raise doubts among two thirds of NY15 primary voters, and more so among the key targeted persuasion groups. (Two split sampled criticisms about Gaza tested similarly strong: one emphasizing Torres’s blame for the genocide, and the other including his support for limits on free speech criticizing Israel.) Blake’s strongest persuasion targets show a similar ranking; all these messages are strong.

Artificial Intelligence

Democratic primary voters have a net favorable attitude toward AI (49% favorable, 40% unfavorable), though results are mixed for different ethnic groups. White voters in the district are negative toward AI by 56% unfavorable to 37% favorable. But Latino voters are favorable to AI by 54% to 35%, and Black voters by 51% to 35%.

By greater than two to one (53% to 23%, with 25% unsure) however, Democratic primary voters agree that AI should be publicly owned as a national good, and is too important and risky to be left to for-profit companies.

Summary

While Michael Blake faces long odds in trying to defeat Ritchie Torres, his available messages would be strong enough to change the outcome should he gain the resources to present them vividly to voters. Most of the pro-Blake messages tested in our poll are ones he is already using, and they test quite strongly. His positive messages of saying no to genocide, stopping the Iran war, and affordability have impact. However, his efforts on social media, on the ground and in debates are not sufficient to break through to this electorate.

Beating Torres would require aggressively communicating negative messages about the incumbent — to all voters, but especially to key voter groups like the high-turnout elderly, Black women, and women over 50. While these groups currently support Torres by big margins and are therefore not turnout targets, they show substantial swings away from him after learning about his failure to advance Medicare for All, his support for the anti-immigrant Laken Riley Act, and his donations from ICE-serving Palantir, his blame for the genocide in Gaza as one of AIPAC’s top Democrats in Congress, and his support for Hakeem Jeffries’s failed leadership. Blake would need to aim these arguments at Torres’s very moveable high-turnout supporters, while doing everything possible to turn out younger voters and lower the average age of the electorate.

Voters’ responses to the arguments that we tested against Torres, and against the congressional leadership of Hakeem Jeffries, contrast with the currently strong approval and favorability ratings we find for Torres, Jeffries, Schumer, and Democrats in Congress, and with Torres’s strong performance in the matchup against Blake. Our findings show that much work remains to be done, because these effective criticisms have been suppressed in most news and commentary, and have not reached those voters. For that reason, Democratic base voters such as those who vote in primaries are not agitating to replace their party’s leaders, or those who serve them. Yet Democratic voters are very troubled by details of their party’s failures, and they respond dramatically when these liabilities come to their attention. 

Of course, Democratic leadership benefits currently by not being in power. When they are, dissatisfaction over their failures comes to the fore and the party loses ground through depressed turnout in general elections. Then, it is too late. The time to make voters aware of Democratic congressional leadership’s failures, whether the issue is war in the Middle East, subservience to donors from Silicon Valley, real estate, for-profit health insurers and chains, and AIPAC, or abandoning promises to make life more affordable, is now.

New York 15th Congressional District Democratic Primary

A Fight Worth Having

April 28-May 10, 2026

Topline Report

422 Interviews

Margin of Error +4.9%

Q1.  How likely are you to vote in the June 23, 2026 Democratic primary election for Congress?

Do you approve or disapprove of the job that each of the following is doing? RANDOM ORDER.

Please indicate if you have a strongly favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or strongly unfavorable opinion of each of the following. RANDOMIZE ORDER Q6-Q12

Q13. If the June 2026 Democratic primary election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote? (RANDOM ORDER)

Q14. If Democrats win control of the House of Representatives this year, should Hakeem Jeffries continue to serve as the House Democratic Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else?

Q15. Which comes closer to your view on AI, the artificial intelligence industry? ROTATE.

Q16. Here are possible descriptions of two Democratic candidates for Congress. ROTATE.

Ritchie Torres is a Congressman with a progressive record of delivering results for the Bronx, where he was born and raised in a housing project with no reliable heat or hot water by a single mother who kept his family afloat on a $4.25 minimum wage. At 25, Torres became the youngest elected official in New York City, and the first openly Afro-Latino LGBTQ elected official from the Bronx. In Congress, Torres fights for quality health care and housing, schools and jobs, and to make the Bronx a safe, decent, affordable place to live, with neighborhoods free from gun violence. Torres will hold Trump accountable, and stand up for immigrants. 

SPLIT SAMPLE A: Michael Blake is a former Assembly member and Obama official, and an AME minister. Blake says the Bronx deserves better than Ritchie Torres, and that it’s time for us to raise wages, reduce the cost of living, pass Medicare for All, and cancel student debt. Blake says we can reject AIPAC, say no to genocide in Gaza, and stop funding war with Iran. Blake can do this because he’s not running alone. He's on a national team of dozens of candidates for House and Senate from Maine to California, supporting each other with a promise to replace the failed leadership of Hakeem Jeffries and put new Democrats in charge in Congress.

SPLIT SAMPLE B: Michael Blake is a former Assembly member and Obama official, and an AME minister. Blake says the Bronx deserves better than Ritchie Torres, and that it’s time for us to raise wages and reduce the cost of living, pass Medicare for All, and cancel student debt. Blake says we can reject AIPAC, say no to genocide in Gaza, and stop funding war with Iran. While Ritchie Torres voted for the Laken Riley Act to make it easier to deport immigrants by ending due process, Blake is a son of Jamaican immigrants who’ll fight to abolish ICE. 

Assuming these statements are accurate, if the June 2026 Democratic primary election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote? (RANDOM ORDER)

Please mark whether you think each of the following is a very strong reason to replace Hakeem Jeffries as Democratic leader in Congress, a somewhat strong reason, or not a strong reason to replace Jeffries. (SCRAMBLE ORDER Q17-Q23)

Q24. Thinking again, if Democrats win control of Congress this year, should Hakeem Jeffries continue to serve as the House Democratic Leader, or should Democrats choose someone else?

Here are some possible positions that may be held by Michael Blake. Please mark whether you think, if accurate, each would be a very strong reason to vote for Blake for Congress, a somewhat strong reason, or not a strong reason? (SCRAMBLE Q25-31 A/B)

Q32. Assuming the above is correct, if the June 2026 Democratic primary election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote? (RANDOM ORDER)

Please mark whether you think each of the following gives you serious doubts, some doubts, or no doubts about voting for Ritchie Torres for Congress. ROTATE ORDER.

Q39. Finally, if the June 2026 primary election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote? (RANDOM ORDER)

What is your gender?

Q40. What is your age please? MEDIAN AGE: 57

Q41. When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as progressive, very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?

Q42. What is the last grade of formal education you have completed?

Q43/Q44. Do you consider yourself Hispanic, Latino, or Latin American, or none of those? And how would you describe your racial or ethnic background? 

Q45. What is your religious affiliation?